The Octagon travels to Moody Center in Austin, Texas this Saturday night for UFC Austin: Tsarukyan vs. Dariush. The card features 13 fights in total, including a five-round lightweight main event between top contenders Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush. We will break down the headliner and two other bouts in this week’s edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

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UFC Austin Main Event Best Bet

Arman Tsarukyan (-278) vs. Beneil Dariush (+225)

The main event of UFC Austin sees Arman Tsarukyan fight Beneil Dariush in a five-round lightweight bout. Tsarukyan is a -278 at all your favorite betting apps, and I believe he will get his hand raised.

Tsarukyan is the No. 8 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 27-year-old Armenian-Russian fighter is one of the very best lightweights in the sport today, holding a 7-2 record in the Octagon with three knockout wins. Tsarukyan has some of the best wrestling in his weight class and averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. 

He also has a positive striking differential, essentially landing four significant strikes per minute on his opponent while getting hit less than twice. He is a natural at MMA and continues to improve every fight. He now has the chance to become a top contender with a win over Dariush, which would mark the biggest win of his UFC career to date.

Dariush is the No. 4 ranked lightweight in the UFC. The 34-year-old Persian fighter is 16-6 overall in the UFC with notable wins over the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson, Drew Dober, and Diego Ferreira. Dariush is traditionally a grappler by trade and he has an incredible ground game. 

However, he has also turned into a very strong striker during his UFC career, making him a very well-rounded fighter. However, one issue that he does have is his durability, as Dariush has lost four times by knockout in the UFC. That could turn out to be an issue going up against a fighter like Tsarukyan who has heavy hands and the ability to score the knockout. 

Tsarukyan is someone who I believe will be fighting for the UFC lightweight title sooner rather than later, while I think Dariush has hit his peak and will now go on the decline. Go with Tsarukyan to win this fight as a -290 favorite, and go with him to get the knockout for a prop.

UFC Austin Best Bet: Arman Tsarukyan wins at -278 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Austin Best Prop Bet: Arman Tsarukyan wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other Austin Best Bets

Punahele Soriano (-270) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+220)

In middleweight action, Punahele Soriano faces off against Dustin Stoltzfus. Soriano is a -270 favorite on the moneyline, and I like him to earn a stoppage win and get back in the win column.

Soriano is 31 years old and he has a 3-3 record in the UFC with all three of his wins coming by way of knockout. He is a powerful striker who has proven to have heavy hands inside the Octagon. However, his striking defense is an issue with a negative striking differential and he has poor takedown defense, checking in at just 30% overall. 

That limits his upside in the UFC middleweight division, but against lower-ranked opponents, he has a chance to knock them out.

Stoltzfus is 32 and he has really struggled in the UFC so far, going 1-4 overall in the promotion with three of those losses coming by stoppage. He is a decent wrestler who can take down opponents with bad takedown defense, but his chin is a big problem. Against Soriano, he will be looking to get the fight to the ground. If he does that, then he has a chance to win. But if this fight stays standing, then Stoltzfus will likely be waking up with a doctor looking into his eyes.

Soriano is a powerful striker and he is taking on a chinny opponent who I do not believe is UFC caliber. This should be an easy night at the office for Soriano, who I predict will finish this fight. Take Soriano on the moneyline at -270 odds and go with him to win by TKO for a prop bet.

UFC Austin Best Bet: Punahele Soriano wins at -270 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Austin Best Prop Bet: Punahele Soriano wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

Jamey Lyn-Horth (-110) vs. Veronica Hardy (-110)

At women’s bantamweight, Jamey Lyn-Horth takes on Veronica Hardy. Lyn-Horth is at a -110 Pick ‘em price in this bout, and I like her to get her hand raised and pick up the victory here.

Lyn-Horth is 33 years old and the Canadian is 1-0 so far in the UFC with a decision win over Hailey Cowan in her Octagon debut. She is undefeated in her MMA career and is a bit of a late bloomer as she just made it to the UFC in her mid-30s. That being said, there is a lot to like here as Lyn-Horth is a well-rounded fighter who is solid everywhere. 

She has the cardio to go the full 15 minutes and she has also shown that she has the ability to finish the fight anywhere it goes.

Hardy is 28 and the Venezuela native is 2-4 overall in the UFC since first joining the promotion back in 2016. She has struggled overall to remain consistent inside the Octagon but has managed to maintain a spot on the roster. She has won two of her last three bouts and has shown evolution in her game since her marriage to former UFC star Dan Hardy, who is also her coach. 

Still, she has a lot of holes in her game and Lyn-Horth can surely exploit them. Hardy has a negative striking differential and poor takedown defense, meaning she is very beatable.

I like Lyn-Horth to grind out a win in this fight. Since she isn’t a well-known fighter and she is taking on a UFC veteran, I think you are getting a discount on her here at just -130 odds. Take Lyn-Horth on the moneyline to win at -110, and go with her to win a decision for a prop bet.

UFC Austin Best Bet: Jamey Lyn-Horth wins at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Austin Best Prop Bet: Jamey Lyn-Horth wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook