UFC Houston Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Hernandez vs. Strickland

Feb 17th, 2026 9:40 AM EST

Anthony Hernandez UFC Apex for UFC Fight Night (Credit Image: © Louis Grasse/PX Imagens via ZUMA Press Wire)

The Octagon heads to Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, this Saturday for UFC Houston. The card features 14 fights overall, including a five-round middleweight headliner between top contenders Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will give our pick for the main event plus two of the undercard contests.

Favorite	Underdog
Anthony Hernandez -285	Sean Strickland +230

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

UFC Houston Main Event Best Bet

Anthony Hernandez (-285) vs. Sean Strickland (+230)

The main event of UFC Houston is a five-round middleweight bout between Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland. Hernandez is a -285 favorite, and I expect him to win this fight and cement his place as the No. 1 contender in the UFC middleweight division.

Hernandez is 32, and he is 9-2 in the UFC. The American made his UFC debut in 2019, and he lost two of his first three fights inside the Octagon. Things weren’t looking good for Hernandez, but then a lightbulb went off inside his head, and he has been unstoppable ever since then, as he’s won his last eight fights in a row. Hernandez has arguably the best gas tank of any fighter in the UFC, as he can go 25 minutes no problem and continue to dish out punishment and land takedowns from the start of the fight until the end. He has phenomenal wrestling, great submission skills, and devastating ground and pound. He looks like the real deal, and if he can beat Strickland, he could be next in line to fight UFC middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev.

Strickland is 34, and he is 16-7 in the UFC. The American debuted in the Octagon back in 2014 as a welterweight, and the first five years of his UFC career were spent as a middling welterweight. In late 2018, Strickland suffered a devastating motorcycle accident that nearly ended his MMA career. But he defied the odds and returned to the cage in 2020 as a middleweight. Ever since then, he has turned into one of the division’s best fighters, defeating Israel Adesanya in a major upset in 2023 to become the UFC middleweight champion. Strickland lost his belt in his first title defense to Dricus Du Plessis, and he lost his chance to regain his belt in a rematch, but he remains one of the weight class’s top talents. He is a fantastic striker with great cardio and stout takedown defense, and remains a tough out for anyone. That being said, it feels like he is a gatekeeper now rather than a true contender.

Strickland is a great fighter, but this is Hernandez’s time. He has the best cardio and some of the best wrestling in the division, and I just see him being able to nullify Strickland over the course of 25 minutes. Go with Hernandez as a -285 favorite to win, and consider taking him by decision for a prop, as Strickland’s toughness and durability will likely help him to survive here.

UFC Houston Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez wins at -285 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Houston Best Bets

Geoff Neal (-205) vs. Uros Medic (+170)

The co-main event of UFC Houston is a welterweight bout between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic. Despite being a +170 underdog, I like Medic to pull off the upset with a knockout win.

Neal is 35, and he is 9-5 in the UFC. The American made his UFC debut in 2018, and he has been a good soldier in the welterweight division ever since then. Neal has faced many of the world's top fighters at 170 lbs and holds notable wins over notable opponents such as Belal Muhammad, Vicente Luque, and Rafael dos Anjos. For several years, Neal was one of the top contenders in the weight class, but he has struggled as of late with three losses in his last four fights. He is also coming off a devastating knockout defeat to Carlos Prates in his last bout.

Medic is 32, and he is 6-3 in the UFC. The Serbian made his UFC debut in 2021, and he has been nothing but exciting ever since, as all nine of his fights in the Octagon have ended inside the distance. All six of his wins have come by knockout, so he has devastating knockout power, though he has been finished three times. His chin is questionable, and he doesn’t have a good submission defense. But his power is real, and he always has the chance to KO his opponent.

This fight isn’t going to go long based on how these two fight. They are both strikers who prefer to stand and trade, and Medic has never been to the distance before, so this probably ends in the first round. Given the odds, I like Medic, who I believe can catch Neal and knock him out. Take Medic as a +170 underdog, and take him by knockout to get even better dog odds.

UFC Houston Best Bet: Uros Medic wins at +170 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Ante Delija (-148) vs. Serghei Spivac (+124)

The heavyweights meet on the main card when Ante Delija takes on Serghei Spivac. Delija is a -148 favorite, and I expect him to win this fight by first-round stoppage.

Delija is 35, and he is 1-1 in the UFC. The Croat made his UFC debut last year and knocked out Marcin Tybura to immediately jump into the top 10 of the UFC heavyweight division. He then suffered a knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, but there was some controversy with the finish. Overall, Delija is a very experienced fighter with a ton of finishing upside, having 19 stoppage wins among his 26 career victories. His chin is a bit questionable with four knockout losses, but overall, he is a very dangerous heavyweight fighter who packs a massive punch.

Spivac is 31, and he is 8-6 in the UFC. The Moldovan made his UFC debut in 2019, and he has been a staple of the heavyweight division top 10 ever since then, with notable wins over the likes of Derrick Lewis and the aforementioned Tybura. He has a wicked ground game and has finished six opponents inside the Octagon. But his durability is a major concern, as Spivac has been finished four times inside the Octagon, so he certainly does not have a strong chin.

Spivac has the superior ground game, but I think he will struggle to get this fight to the mat. Delija should be able to keep this fight standing and batter Spivac on the feet for a first-round knockout. Take Delija at -148 for your best bet, or try to get better odds with the TKO prop.

UFC Houston Best Bet: Ante Delija wins at -148 with DraftKings Sportsbook

About the Author

Adam Martin

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A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.