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UFC Orlando Odds, Picks & Predictions For Thompson vs. Holland

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Orlando Odds, Picks & Predictions For Thompson vs. Holland

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The Octagon returns to Florida this Saturday when UFC Orlando takes place at the Amway Center. The card features 15 fights in total, including an exciting welterweight main event between Kevin Holland and Stephen Thompson. 

We’re here to give you our thoughts on the headliner, plus two other bouts in this week’s best UFC picks to back today.

Favorite Underdog
Kevin Holland | -155 Stephen Thompson | +135

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC Orlando Best Bet

Kevin Holland (-155) vs. Stephen Thompson (+135)

The main event of UFC Orlando is a five-round welterweight bout between Kevin Holland (23-8, 1 NC) and Stephen Thompson (16-6-1). Holland is a -155 betting favorite, and I lean his way to getting the win.

Holland is 30 years old and he’s in the prime of his career right now. He is a fan favorite who is known for his exciting fights, win or lose. In his last fight, Holland lost by submission to top contender Khamzat Chimaev in a fight he took on 24 hours notice. 

You have to give Holland a pass for that fight, and prior to that loss, he had finished Alex Oliveira and Tim Means at welterweight. Holland’s takedown defense has always been his biggest area of concern, but he likely won’t be facing too many takedown attempts against Thompson. 

Instead, this fight will likely be contested primarily on the feet, and it certainly feels like Holland has the chance to become the second person to ever knock Thompson out after Anthony Pettis.

As for Thompson, he’s now 39 years old and he appears to be on a decline. In his last two fights, Holland lost decisions to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad in fights where he got taken down. Of course, Holland isn’t a great wrestler and Thompson probably won’t have to defend as many takedown attempts in this fight. 

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That being said, Holland is absolutely a submission threat, so Thompson is going to have to keep this fight standing to win. He is the more technical striker, but his overall MMA game isn’t as strong. If Thompson wins this fight, it will likely be a decision on points. But in a five-round fight, Thompson will be under fire from Holland the entire time.

It will be interesting to see how this fight plays out. Ultimately, I believe Holland’s unorthodox striking and more complete MMA game will help lead him to get the knockout victory, although a submission win is also possible.

UFC Orlando Best Bet: Kevin Holland wins at -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Orlando Best Prop Bet: Kevin Holland wins inside the distance at +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Other UFC Orlando Best Bets

Niko Price (-140) vs. Phil Rowe (+120)

In preliminary card welterweight action, Niko Price (15-5, 2 NC) takes on Phil Rowe (9-3). Despite being a +120 underdog at betting apps, I like Rowe to get his hand raised in this fight.

Rowe joined the UFC in 2021 and so far he’s 2-1 in the Octagon with a decision loss to Gabe Green, plus knockout wins over Jason Witt and Orion Cosce. The 32-year-old Rowe is one of the biggest welterweights in the UFC, standing at 6’3” and possessing a long 80” reach. 

He has become one of the most dangerous strikers in the weight class and has knocked out his last two opponents. His takedown defense is a weakness that could be exploited by superior grapplers, but his opponent Price is mainly a striker. That means that Rowe should get his chances to land big on the feet and knock his opponent out cold.

UFC Orlando Odds, Picks & Predictions For Thompson vs. Holland 1

Price is just one year older than Rowe at age 33, but it feels like he’s taken far more damage throughout his career. He joined the UFC back in 2016 and since then his record in the Octagon is 7-5, 2 NC. 

However, Price is just 1-2, 1 NC over his last four fights as he’s struggled to get his hand raised. In his last fight, he won a close decision over Alex Oliveira to save his job. However, it wasn’t a spectacular performance by any means. 

The last time we saw Price score a knockout in the UFC was over three years ago. He’s still a very exciting and fun fighter to watch, but it definitely feels like he is on the downside of his UFC career at this point in time.

Rowe’s length and reach should give Price problems on the feet, and he has the knockout power to land the finishing blow. Look for both men to land their shots in this fight, but ultimately I see Rowe badly rocking Price and then finishing him off with strikes for the knockout victory.

UFC Orlando Best Bet: Phil Rowe wins at +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Orlando Best Prop Bet: Phil Rowe wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Yazmin Jauregui (-305) vs. Istela Nunes (+255)

Kicking off the preliminary card is a women’s strawweight bout between Yazmin Jauregui (9-0) and Istela Nunes (6-3, 1 NC). Jauregui is a -305 betting favorite, and I fully expect her to win this fight.

Jauregui is just 23 years old and she had a brilliant UFC debut this past summer when she defeated Iasmin Lucindo via decision in a back-and-forth fight. Jauregui showed off her striking prowess in that fight, and it was brilliant to watch her throw punches and kicks at her opponent. 

She also showed off great toughness in the fight by eating a few shots herself, plus she showed she can go a full, hard 15 minutes. Overall, it was one of the better UFC debuts from a female fighter this year, and by all means, it looks like Jauregui will be a contender for years to come.

As for Nunes, she is 30 years old and she is 0-2 in the UFC so far. In her promotional debut last year, she was taken down and controlled by Ariane Carnelossi en route to a unanimous decision loss.

The UFC then matched her up against Sam Hughes in her last fight, and after winning the first round with her striking, she was taken down and controlled, and ultimately lost the decision. Nunes is definitely a talented striker and she’s fun to watch. However, she has holes in her game and her cardio isn’t great, meaning her opponent can beat her up down the stretch.

This should be a fun fight because it’s two strikers, but Jauregui has far more upside here. She’s the younger, more talented fighter, and she should be able to beat Nunes by decision. Don't forget to place your bets at the best betting sites

UFC Orlando Best Bet: Yazmin Jauregui wins at -305 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Orlando Best Prop Bet: Yazmin Jauregui wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.