After an off week, the Octagon returns this Saturday when UFC Sao Paulo goes down. It’s the second UFC event in Brazil this year, with the first coming way back in January. 

This weekend, we have heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis fighting in the main event, plus there are 12 other fights on the undercard. In this week’s edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks, we will break down the main event of the evening plus two of the other fights on the preliminary card.

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UFC Sao Paulo Main Event Best Bet

Jailton Almeida (-470) vs. Derrick Lewis (+460)

In the main event of UFC Sao Paulo, Jailton Almeida takes on Derrick Lewis in a heavyweight bout set for five rounds or less. Almeida is a -470 UFC betting favorite, and he should finish this fight.

Almeida is 32 years old and the Brazilian heavyweight appears to be a future title contender. He started fighting in the UFC just last year and already he has a 5-0 record in the Octagon with all five of those wins coming by way of stoppage. 

He has an incredible ground game and he is able to take his opponents down to the mat and finish them there by either submission or ground and pound. We still need to see his cardio tested, but he is extremely dangerous in the first round. Should Almeida get past Lewis in this bout, look for him to get fast-tracked to a title shot.

Lewis has been in the UFC since 2014 and he has an 18-9 record in the Octagon overall, with 14 wins coming by way of knockout. The 38-year-old American is one of the most dangerous and powerful punchers in MMA history and he has knockout wins over the likes of Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes, plus a notable decision win over former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou.

However, while he is a big-time puncher, he has issues with his takedown defense, cardio, and chin. He’s always live for a knockout, but his overall MMA game isn’t great.

Almeida has a massive grappling advantage in this fight, which is why he’s such a big favorite to win. Although Lewis has a puncher’s chance, the Brazilian should be able to get Lewis down to the mat early in the fight and finish him by submission. Go with Almeida to win at -470, and if you want to bet on a prop, go with him to win this fight by submission, likely in round one.

UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Jailton Almeida wins at -470 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Sao Paulo Best Prop Bet: Jailton Almeida wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other Sao Paulo Best Bets

Caio Borralho (-250) vs. Abus Magomedov (+200)

Also on the main card, Caio Borralho fights Abus Magomedov at middleweight. Borralho is a -250 betting favorite, and I view him as the clear favorite to get the victory in this bout.

Borralho is a 30-year-old Brazilian who has a 4-0 record in the UFC since joining the promotion two years ago. He is a tremendous grappler with a great gas tank who is able to take his opponents down to the mat, control them there, and tire them out. His striking has also been improving during his time in the UFC, but he relies on his grappling, which is very high level. He is likely one or two wins away from breaking into the top 15 of the UFC middleweight division.

Magmomedov is 33 years old and the Russian-German is 1-1 in the UFC with a knockout win over Dustin Stoltzfus and a knockout loss to Sean Strickland, the current UFC middleweight champion. Magomedov is definitely a dangerous striker and he has shown his knockout prowess throughout his career. However, his gas tank is a major concern. Against Borralho, Magomedov will be looking for an early knockout as the later this fight goes, the worse for him.

Borralho is the more well-rounded fighter with far superior cardio. I like the Brazilian to survive the first round and then take over after that, being able to utilize his grappling to get Magomedov down to the mat and finish him with a submission in the second or third round. Take Borralho as a -250 betting apps favorite, and take him to win this fight by submission for a prop if you want plus money.

UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Caio Borralho wins at - -250 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Sao Paulo Best Prop Bet: Caio Borralho wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-345) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+275)

On the preliminary card, we have a welterweight bout between Rinat Fakhretdinov and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Fakhretdinov is a -345 betting favorite, and I like him to win this fight.

Fakhretdinov is the No. 15 ranked welterweight in the UFC right now. The 32-year-old Russian is 3-0 overall in the UFC and he is riding a 20-fight win streak overall. In his first two UFC fights, he essentially used his wrestling to ride his way to victory, but in his last bout, Fakhretdinov finished Kevin Lee for the biggest win of his career. Fakhretdinov has been nothing short of impressive and he has the potential to be a future top-five fighter in the welterweight division.

As for dos Santos, he joined the UFC in 2015 and he has a 10-3 record in the Octagon. The 36-year-old Brazilian is a tremendous striker who holds a notable knockout victory over current UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland on his resume. For the most part, he has won his fights by decision in the UFC, but he has the potential to knock his foes out. Overall, dos Santos has been an underrated fighter during his career, but at his current age, may be on the decline.

Although I think most of the Brazilian fighters on this card win, this is one fight where I do favor the foreigner. I like Fakhretdinov to get the win in this bout, although I do expect dos Santos to put up a good fight. Go with Fakhretdinov to win at -345, and take him to win by decision. With just a 65% takedown defense, I don’t think dos Santos will be able to stop the takedowns here.

UFC Sao Paulo Best Bet: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins at -345 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Sao Paulo Best Prop Bet: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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