UFC Vegas 58 Odds, Betting Predictions & Expert Picks
Adam Martin | 10 mins
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We are back this weekend for another exciting MMA card when UFC Vegas 58 goes down. The card features 12 fights in total, including a fantastic lightweight main event between top contenders Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos.
We are here to give our pick for that fight, as well as two other bouts in this week’s UFC betting preview.
UFC Vegas 58 Main Event Best Bet
Rafael Fiziev (-210) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+175)
The main event of UFC Vegas 58 is a five-round lightweight bout between top-10 ranked fighters Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. These are two of the best fighters in the weight class, but I’m picking Fiziev to pick up the biggest win of his MMA career as a -210 favorite on betting sites.
Fiziev is just 29 years old and he appears to have all the makings of a future UFC lightweight title contender. After losing his UFC debut in 2019, he has reeled off five straight wins, winning bonus awards in his last four fights for his excellent performances. One of the most devastating strikers in the UFC lightweight division, Fiziev has tons of knockout power. But on top of his brutal finishing ability, he is also a very underrated wrestler, making him a well-rounded fighter.
When you are talking about well-rounded fighters, it doesn’t get much better than dos Anjos. The former UFC lightweight champion might be 37 years old now, but he is still looking incredible in his fights, having defeated Paul Felder and Renato Moicano by five-round decisions in his last two. He is good everywhere and has very few flaws in his game. That being said, father time will eventually catch up to him, and this might be the fight that happens.
This should be a fantastic main event between two of the best in the world at 155lbs, but I definitely like Fiziev to out-strike dos Anjos and win as a -210 favorite. Dos Anjos is very durable and hard to finish, however, so I’m leaning towards Fiziev to win the fight by decision at +140.
The Pick: Rafael Fiziev wins at -210 with DraftKings ➜
Alternative Pick: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision at +140 with DraftKings ➜
Other UFC Vegas 58 Best Bets
Said Nurmagomedov (-275) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+230)
Also on the main card, Said Nurmagomedov faces off against Douglas Silva de Andrade in a featured bantamweight bout. These are two of the best unranked fighters at 135lbs right now, which should lead to an awesome fight, but I’m backing Nurmagomedov as a -275 favorite on betting apps.
Nurmagomedov (no relation to former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov) is 30 years old and is 4-1 since joining the UFC in 2018. He is a very talented fighter who is coming off back-to-back first-round stoppage wins, and he actually has three first-round wins in the UFC, which is very impressive. Not only can he wrestle and submit, but he can also knock you out, and he can also win on points if need be, making him a very well-rounded fighter.
De Andrade is one of the oldest bantamweights on the UFC roster at 37, but he is still winning fights, having defeated Sergey Morozov and Gaetano Pirrello by stoppage in his last two bouts. He also has a notable win over Marlon Vera on his resume. A UFC fighter dating back to 2014, de Andrade is 6-4 overall in the UFC. He is a talented striker who has knockout power. However, he also gets hit a lot in his fights, holding a negative significant strike ratio. He has knockout power but will be at a speed disadvantage against Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov is the younger, faster, taller and longer fighter who has taken less damage throughout his UFC career, so I have to pick him to get the win here as a -275 favorite. That being said, de Andrade is tough as hell, so I expect a fairly competitive fight that goes the distance. If you want to take a shot on Nurmagomedov by decision, the prop pays +250.
The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov wins at -275 with DraftKings ➜
Alternative Pick: Said Nurmagomedov wins by decision at +250 with DraftKings ➜
Ricky Turcios (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+160)
On the preliminary card, former Ultimate Fighter winner Ricky Turcios returns when he takes on veteran Canadian Aiemann Zahabi in a bantamweight bout. This should be a good scrap between two solid fighters, but I favor Turcios to win the fight as a -190 betting favorite.
Turcios is only 29 years old and last summer he defeated Brady Heistand to win TUF 29. He is a high-paced action fighter who has solid striking skills as well as a sound grappling game. He is also very experienced, having been a professional MMA fighter since 2013 and having previously fought for promotions like Bellator and Fury FC. There is a lot to like about Turcios, and hopefully he is able to stay healthy and active as he’s fun to watch.
Zahabi, on the other hand, is 34 years old, so he is not exactly a young gun in a division full of mostly younger fighters. A pro since 2012, Zahabi first joined the UFC in 2017 and has gone 2-2 since then. In his last fight, he picked up the biggest win of his UFC career when he knocked out Drako Rodriguez. However, that fight was in February 2021, so he is coming into this fight off a long break. Zahabi is talented, but he is inactive, having fought just once in the past three years.
Turcios is the younger, longer, taller fighter who has more experience and who is more active. I feel confident that Turcios gets his hand raised against Zahabi as a -190 favorite, so that's one of my UFC picks this week. Zahabi is tough and I expect the fight to go the distance, so you can take Turcios by decision.
The Pick: Ricky Turcios wins at -190 with DraftKings ➜
Alternative Pick: Ricky Turcios wins by decision (odds not available currently)