The Octagon returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday night with UFC Vegas 69: Andrade vs. Blanchfield. 

The headliner features top-ranked women’s flyweights Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield going at it for five rounds or less, and there are 10 other undercard fights on top of that. Let’s break down our UFC betting picks now.

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UFC Vegas 69 Main Event Best Bet

Jessica Andrade (-165) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+140)

The main event of UFC Vegas 69 is a five-round women’s flyweight bout between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blancfield. This is a fantastic fight on paper and one that I see Andrade winning as a -165 favorite at betting apps.

Andrade is one of the best women’s fighters in the UFC at either 125 lbs or 115 lbs. The 31-year-old Brazilian first joined the UFC in 2013 and holds a 15-7 overall record in the Octagon since then while proving herself as one of the best women’s MMA fighters in the world. 

She is incredibly lethal with her striking, having huge knockout power in her fists, but what makes Andrade special is that she is also a dangerous grappler who has fight-ending submission skills. Andrade has also looked better than ever as of late, having won her last three fights in a one-sided fashion. She did take this fight against Blanchfield on just one week’s notice, but considering she always stays in amazing shape, I’m not worried about the short notice for her.

Blanchfield is only 23 years old, and she is one of the best prospects at women’s 125lbs. Since joining the UFC two years ago, Blanchfield is a perfect 4-0 in the Octagon with submission finishes in her last two fights. Her last outing against Molly McCann was by far her most impressive win as she completely and utterly destroyed her opponent. 

While Blanchfield has looked great in the UFC and has all the makings of a future champion, this is still a huge step up in competition against a former champ in Andrade. Blanchfield has the grappling skills to make things interesting, but if she can’t get the fight to the ground, she’s going to be in serious trouble.

Andrade is one of the best pound-for-pound women’s fighters in the sport, and while Blanchfield is a tremendous prospect, this is a major step up in competition. Although I think Blanchfield is going to have a great career in the UFC, I don’t like this fight for her. Give me Andrade to win as a -165 betting favorite, and she will likely be able to find the finish inside the distance as well.

UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Jessica Andrade wins -165 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 69 Prop Pick: Jessica Andrade wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 69 Best Bets

Mayra Bueno Silva (-435) vs. Lina Lansberg (+350)

On the preliminary card is a women’s bantamweight bout between Mayra Bueno Silva and Lina Lansberg. Silva is a -435 UFC betting favorite, and she should be able to win this fight.

Silva has been in the UFC since 2018 and she holds a 4-2-1 record in the UFC, with three of those wins coming by way of submission. The 31-year-old Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter who has shown off a very dangerous ground game as well as some solid striking skills on the feet. 

She is very durable and has never been finished in the Octagon despite fighting some tough competition, including top contender Manon Fiorot. Although Silva has been inconsistent during her UFC career, she has been red-hot as of late, having won her last two fights.

As for Lansberg, she is 39 years old, which makes her one of the oldest fighters in the division. The Swede, who has been in the UFC since 2016, has not had much success in the Octagon, holding a poor 4-6 record in the UFC, including losses in her last three fights. 

While she has fought a high level of competition in the Octagon, she just doesn’t do enough to get her hand raised, and she is now taking on another very tough, younger fighter in the form of Silva.

Silva is a very good fighter who has been on a nice roll as of late, while Lansberg is clinging to a spot on the UFC roster. Look for Silva to win this fight as the -435 betting favorite, and considering her finishing tendencies, the prop on her winning inside the distance is worth a look.

UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva wins -435 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 69 Prop Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Clayton Carpenter (-280) vs. Juancamilo Ronderos (+235)

Kicking off the preliminary card is a flyweight bout between Clayton Carpenter and Juancamilo Ronderos. Carpenter is a -280 betting favorite, and I believe he will win the fight.

Carpenter is just 26 years old and the American is making his UFC debut in this fight after winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer. Since turning pro in 2019, he’s a perfect 6-0 in the sport with four wins coming by way of stoppage. 

Not only does he have dangerous striking skills on the feet, but he also has slick submission skills. He’s a welcome addition to the UFC flyweight division and he should have a lot of success inside the Octagon. It’s also worth noting Carpenter will have a two-inch height advantage and a 3.5-inch reach advantage in this fight, and both of those physical attributes should help him in the matchup.

As for Ronderos, he made his UFC debut two years ago and lost in the first round to David Dvorak. He was then booked for a second UFC fight, but the 27-year-old Colombia native tested positive for cocaine and was pulled from the fight after being suspended for failing his drug test. 

After nearly two years away, he now returns to the Octagon, and the matchmakers have given him a tough fight. It’s possible he could show some improvements in his return to the cage, but if he looks like the fighter that he was before his long layoff, then he’s not anything special.

Carpenter is a high-end prospect who has all the tools to have a great career in the UFC, while Ronderos doesn’t seem like a fighter who will be sticking around the UFC roster for very long. Look for Carpenter to win this fight in impressive fashion as a -280 favorite, and for a prop, you can take him to win inside the distance as a finish seems likely.

UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Clayton Carpenter wins -280 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 69 Prop Pick: Clayton Carpenter wins inside the distance at DraftKings Sportsbook

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