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UFC Vegas 71 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 11 mins

UFC Vegas 71 Odds, Picks & Predictions For Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

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This weekend’s UFC Vegas 71 event features 13 bouts in total, including a heavyweight main event between top contenders Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich. 

That should be a great fight, and fight fans will be looking forward to wagering on it. In this week’s Bookies Best Bets article, we will take a closer look at that fight, make our UFC picks, and break down two additional undercard bouts.

Favorite Underdog
Curtis Blaydes | -170 Sergei Pavlovich | +145

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC Vegas 71 Main Event Best Bet

Curtis Blaydes (-170) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (+145)

The main event of UFC Vegas 71 is a five-round heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Sergei Pavlovich. Blaydes is a -170 betting favorite at sports betting sites and I like him to win this main-event fight.

Blaydes has been one of the best heavyweights in the UFC since making his promotional debut in 2016. The 32-year-old American is 12-3, 1 NC in the UFC with seven wins by knockout. 

He has arguably the most dominant wrestling skills in the weight class and is averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, which is one of the highest rates in the UFC. He also has good striking skills, and he has fantastic cardio for a big man. 

His chin has let him down a few times in the past, but anyone in the heavyweight division can be knocked out. Against Pavlovich, Blaydes will be looking to survive the early storm and try to avoid getting finished in the first round. If he’s able to survive the first round, he has a great chance to win.

Pavlovich is actually ranked higher than Blaydes, which I find disrespectful given that he hasn’t been in the UFC for nearly as long and doesn’t have as many UFC wins. 

The 30-year-old Russian joined the UFC in 2018 and he is 5-1 overall in the Octagon, with his last five wins coming by way of knockout. He is absolutely one of the biggest power punches in the UFC heavyweight division, but I’m not sold on his cardio or takedown defense. In his UFC debut loss to Alistair Overeem, Pavlovich was taken down and finished. 

While he may have improved his wrestling skills since then, I still doubt he will be able to stop Blaydes’ takedowns in this fight. If this fight goes past the first round, I believe it will be very difficult for Pavlovich to win this fight.

He is going to have to be careful in the first round where his opponent is most dangerous, but I think Blaydes can take Pavlovich to the ground and finish him with ground and pound for a TKO victory. Give me Blaydes at -170 odds for the win and take him to win by TKO for a prop bet.

UFC Vegas 71 Best Bet: Curtis Blaydes wins at -170 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 71 Best Prop Bet: Curtis Blaydes wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 71 Best Bets

Bobby Green (-285) vs. Jared Gordon (+240)

Also on the main card is a lightweight bout between Bobby Green and Jared Gordon. Despite Gordon being a sizable +240 underdog on UFC betting sites, I favor him to win this fight.

Green has been one of the most dependable lightweights in the UFC for the past decade, but he has announced this is his retirement fight. At age 36, the American has lost a step and he is coming into this bout having lost his last two fights by knockout. 

While he has always been a high-volume striker with great cardio, his chin is letting him down these days. Not only that, but his takedown defense isn’t holding up as well, either. Going up against a strong grappler such as Gordon, his declining takedown defense could be an issue.

Gordon has been in the UFC since 2017 but it feels like he has finally been coming into his own as a fighter over the last few years. The 34-year-old American lost a controversial decision to Paddy Pimblett in his last fight, but most fans and media felt he won that fight. 

Had he got the decision, I doubt this line against Green would be so lopsided in his opponent’s favor. Gordon has great wrestling skills, fantastic cardio, and underrated striking. He has been a solid fighter for years and he is still improving, so I’m perplexed as to why he’s such a big underdog here.

Green doesn’t have the best takedown defense, and Gordon is a fighter who is constantly initiating grappling and looking to get the fight to the ground. At +240 odds, I’ll take a shot on Gordon being able to wrestle his way to the win here. For a prop, take him by decision.

UFC Vegas 71 Best Bet: Jared Gordon wins at +240 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 71 Best Prop Bet: Jared Gordon wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Karine Silva (-190) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+160)

On the prelims, Karine Silva takes on Priscila Cachoeira at women’s flyweight. Silva is a -190 betting favorite, and I believe she will win this fight.

Silva is a 29-year-old Brazilian fighter who made her UFC debut last year, picking up a first-round submission win over Poliana Botelho. She has won her last six fights in a row, with all of those wins coming by way of stoppage. 

She has finishing skills both on the ground and on the feet, making her incredibly dangerous for this weight class. Considering she is on the right side of 30, it’s fair to say that she still has room for improvement, making her a great prospect at 125lbs. I’m intrigued by Silva and I look forward to watching her UFC career bloom at flyweight.

As for Cachoeira, she has been in the UFC since 2018, going 4-4 overall. The 34-year-old Brazilian deserves a lot of credit because she started off her UFC career with three straight losses before bouncing back with four wins in her last five fights, including three by knockout. Cachoeira has a lot of power, but I still question her grappling skills. 

She has been submitted twice in the UFC, and I believe there is a chance she will be tapped out again here by Silva. Cachoeira has a puncher’s chance, but her opponent is far more well-rounded at MMA.

Silva’s ground game is deadly and that is the area of the game where Cachoeira is at her weakest. I believe Silva will be able to get this fight to the ground and finish Cachoeira by submission. Give me Silva to win this fight at -190 on betting apps, and take her to win by submission for a prop.

UFC Vegas 71 Best Bet: Karine Silva wins at -190 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 71 Best Prop Bet: Karine Silva wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

UPDATE: This fight has been scrapped after Priscila Cachoeira missed weight.

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.