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UFC Vegas 74 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Kara-France vs. Albazi

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Vegas 74 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Kara-France vs. Albazi

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Following a rare off week on the MMA calendar, the Octagon returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday for UFC Vegas 74. 

The main event features a pair of flyweight contenders in Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi going at it for five rounds or less, while the undercard features another 12 bouts for 13 in total. 

Check out our UFC picks and predictions for the headliner plus two other undercard bouts below.

Favorite Underdog
Kai Kara-France | -110 Amir Albazi | -110

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

UFC Vegas 74 Main Event Best Bet

Kai Kara-France (-110) vs. Amir Albazi (-110)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 74, Kai Kara-France battles Amir Albazi in a five-round flyweight bout. I’m going with Albazi to get the win in this fight at -110 at betting apps.

Albazi joined the UFC in 2020 and he is a perfect 4-0 so far in the Octagon with three wins by stoppage. The 29-year-old Iraq native is mostly known for his grappling skills as he is a strong wrestler who has submission skills on the mat. 

But he has also been steadily improving his striking attack and has been looking much more dangerous in the standup as of late, too. He has been beating unranked opponents so far, and Kara-France represents the best opponent Albazi has fought yet. If he gets the victory in this fight, Albazi could earn himself a title shot.

As for Kara-France, he’s been one of the best flyweights in the UFC for several years now. The 30-year-old New Zealander has a 7-3 record in the Octagon, with two wins coming by knockout. In his last fight, he fought a competitive bout against the champion Brandon Moreno before suffering a late knockout defeat. 

While a very dangerous striker in his own right, Kara-France does have some durability concerns, having been finished in two of his three UFC defeats. He is a very good flyweight fighter, but he has holes in his game that Albazi can exploit in this fight.

I like Albazi to win this fight. I believe he has more momentum heading into this fight, and I think his winning streak continues with a stoppage victory. For the moneyline, go with Albazi to win this fight at -110 odds, and if you like props, then take Albazi to win this fight by submission.

UFC Vegas 74 Best Bet: Amir Albazi wins at -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 74 Best Prop Bet: Amir Albazi wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 74 Best Bets

Daniel Santos (-200) vs. Johnny Munoz (+170)

On the preliminary card, Daniel Santos battles Johnny Munoz in the UFC bantamweight division. Santos is the -200 UFC betting sites favorite, and I favor him to get the win by knockout.

Santos has fought twice in the Octagon, first losing a decision to veteran Julio Arce in his debut before bouncing back with a knockout win over John Castenada his last time out. 

The 28-year-old Brazilian showed that he has serious knockout power in that fight, and his opponent should not take him lightly. If he is able to connect with anyone’s chin, he can put their lights out. Santos’ own durability is a bit of a concern, but Munoz isn’t much of a knockout threat.

His opponent Munoz is 2-2 so far in the UFC and he is coming off of a decision win over Liudvik Sholinian in his last fight. He is a solid grappler, but his chin appears to be a weakness, as he was badly knocked out by Tony Gravely two fights ago. 

Going up against such a vicious striker like Santos, this could end up being a short night in the cage for Munoz this weekend. He needs to get this fight to the ground because on the feet I expect Munoz to get pieced up pretty badly.

I think Santos will come out strong and finish Munoz in the first round by knockout. Give me Santos on the moneyline at -200, and give me Santos to win this fight by TKO for a prop.

UFC Vegas 74 Best Bet: Daniel Santos wins at -200 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 74 Best Prop Bet: Daniel Santos wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Elise Reed (-130) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+110)

Also in the prelims, Elise Reed faces Jinh Yu Frey at women’s strawweight. Reed is a -130 betting favorite, and I like her to win this fight.

Reed has a 2-3 record in the UFC, so overall she has been inconsistent, but the talent is there. The 30-year-old American comes from a kickboxing background, and she has shown some nice striking skills at times inside the Octagon. 

However, her ground game is a big weakness, and all of her losses have come when her opponents took her to the ground. If she can keep her fights on the feet, she will always have a chance to win on points, but the ground is her big weakness.

Fortunately for Reed, Frey isn’t much of a ground threat at this point in her career. The 38-year-old American has a 2-4 record in the UFC and she is coming off of a brutal knockout loss to Polyana Viana in her last fight. 

That is the kind of loss where you want to fade a fighter in her next fight, which is what I’m doing here. While Frey is well-rounded, she doesn't really excel in any facet of the game, and she should be at a significant speed disadvantage against Reed.

As long as Reed keeps this fighting standing, she should be able to outpoint Frey and win a decision. Give me Reed at -130 odds and bet on her to win this fight by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 74 Best Bet: Elise Reed wins at -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 74 Best Prop Bet: Elise Reed wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.