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UFC Vegas 79 Odds, Predictions & Best UFC Bets For Fiziev vs. Gamrot

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Vegas 79 Odds, Predictions & Best UFC Bets For Fiziev vs. Gamrot

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MMA fans, we have a fun event going down live this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is UFC Vegas 79, and it features a fantastic five-round lightweight bout in the headliner between Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. 

In addition to this awesome main event, there are 10 other fights on the card. We’ve been red-hot lately with our UFC picks and we’ll give out our UFC Vegas 79 Best Bets for the main event and two other bouts right here at Bookies.com.

Favorite Underdog
Rafael Fiziev | -162 Mateusz Gamrot | +136

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC Vegas 79 Main Event Best Bet

Rafael Fiziev (-162) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+136)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 79, Rafael Fiziev takes on Mateusz Gamrot in a five-round lightweight bout. Fiziev is a -162 UFC betting favorite to win, and I like him to get the job done in this fight.

Fiziev is a 30-year-old Azerbaijani fighter who is one of the top strikers in the UFC lightweight division. Since joining the UFC in 2019, he is 6-2 in the UFC with three wins coming by way of knockout. 

He is an incredibly dangerous striker who can light up his opponents on the feet and finish them. As for his grappling, he does not possess much of a threat offensively, but he has some of the best takedown defense in his weight class, which allows him to stand and trade.

Gamrot is a 32-year-old Poland native who has a 5-2 record in the UFC. He is one of the top grapplers in the division and he’s able to get most of his opponents down to the mat and grind them out there and finish them. 

He also has solid striking, making him a very well-rounded fighter. At this level of the sport, everyone is good, and Gamrot is excellent. However, it’s all about the style matchups, and going up against Fiziev here could prove to be Gamrot’s demise.

I really like Gamrot, who is a great MMA fighter in his own right, but I like Fiziev in this matchup. I can’t ignore the elite 90% takedown defense of Fiziev, and on the feet, he is the more effective striker and the one with more power. Gamrot is very tough and has never been finished, so I can see him going the distance in this one. 

However, I have to go with Fiziev to get his hand raised. I think he will keep this fight standing and outstrike Gamrot over the course of five rounds. Take Fiziev at -162 on the moneyline for the win and take him by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Rafael Fiziev wins at -162 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 79 Best Prop Bet: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 79 Best Bets

Andre Fialho (-185) vs. Tim Means (+154)

On the preliminary card, we have Andre Fialho facing off against Tim Means at welterweight. Despite Means being a +154 underdog, I like him to claim the upset and beat Fialho by TKO.

Means is 39 years old and he holds an all-time UFC record of 14-13, 1 NC overall. The American is a veteran of over 10 years inside the Octagon and he’s had a solid career as a UFC fighter. 

However, he is getting up there in age and he enters this bout having lost his last three fights in a row. Looking closer at his record, his problems come mainly against grapplers. Against strikers, Means always has a chance to get the win due to his pace and technique.

Fialho is only 29 years old, which is likely why the Portuguese fighter is favored here. But with a 2-4 UFC record, including losses in his last three fights, it’s clear that he’s struggled in the Octagon. Fialho has big knockout power in his fists and anytime the fight remains standing he has the chance to win. 

However, his chin is a serious concern and he enters this bout with Means having lost three straight fights, which is a big problem going up against a fellow striker.

Fialho has a weak chin and Means is a crafty veteran fighter who can still crack despite his age. I’m not really sure why Fialho is favored so much here given the fact he’s been knocked out in three straight fights and is now fighting a striker. 

Means has far more experience in the UFC and I can see him having a lot of success here and finding the chin of Fialho, putting him out. At +154 betting apps odds, I think you have to make a value bet on the dog Means, and also take him by TKO.

UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Tim Means wins at +154 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 79 Best Prop Bet: Tim Means wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

Jacob Malkoun (-485) vs. Cody Brundage (+370)

Also on the prelims, Jacob Malkoun meets Cody Brundage in a middleweight bout. Malkoun is the biggest favorite on the card at -485 odds, and I like him to get the win in this contest.

Malkoun is a 28-year-old Australian fighter who is 3-2 so far in the UFC. He is one of the top wrestlers in the UFC middleweight division, having racked up an incredible 30 takedowns over his last four bouts. 

That is a phenomenal takedown rate and his wrestling gives him an advantage in most of the fights he’s in. Malkoun’s striking isn’t his strong suit, so if his fights remain standing, he can lose. But if his fights go to the ground, he’s likely going to win the fight.

As for Brundage, he’s struggled in the UFC, going 2-4 overall and losing his last three fights in a row heading into this one. The 29-year-old American comes from a grappling background as well but his wrestling has not been very effective in the UFC. 

He also struggles with his cardio which can be compromised the later the fight goes. With Brundage, he has about a five-minute window in the first round to win his fights. After that, he starts to slow down and often loses.

Brundage can be exciting at times but in reality, he is lucky to be getting another UFC fight because he’s just not ready for this level of the sport. On the other hand, Malkoun is a bore to watch but he’s the kind of guy you can rely on to get the job done. 

The -485 odds are high, but I think Malkoun dominates this fight with his wrestling, possibly even sneaking in a 10-8 round or two. Go with Malkoun to win at -485 odds and take him to win by decision for a prop bet.

UFC Vegas 79 Best Bet: Jacob Malkoun wins at -485 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 79 Best Prop Bet: Jacob Malkoun wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.