After a rare off week, the world’s leading MMA promotion returns this Saturday for UFC Vegas 80. The card features a five-round lightweight bout between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green in the headliner, plus there are 11 preliminary card bouts as well. We will break down the main event as well as two other fights in this week’s edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

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UFC Vegas 80 Main Event Best Bet

Grant Dawson (-445) vs. Bobby Green (+310)

In the headliner of UFC Vegas 80, we have Grant Dawson taking on Bobby Green at lightweight. Dawson is a -445 UFC bettingfavorite, and I like him to get the biggest win of his career.

Dawson is 29 years old and in his prime. He is one of the best lightweights in the UFC right now and he backs up his top-15 ranking with a tremendous 8-0-1 UFC record. He is a fantastic wrestler who averages over 3.5 takedowns a fight, and he also has finishing ability, having submitted four UFC opponents and having knocked out one. 

He is quickly rising up the ranks in the UFC lightweight division, and the fact he is now headlining a card shows the matchmakers have faith in him. Should he get past Green in this fight, it should land him a top-10 opponent.

Green, meanwhile, is 37 years old and he has been in the UFC since 2013, holding a record of 11-9-1, 1 NC overall in the world’s top MMA organization. He has always been a tremendous boxer who has fast hands and great footwork, and his boxing skills have helped him go far in the sport. 

He is also a decent wrestler in his own right. That being said, his takedown defense isn’t great, he is hittable on the feet, and he is getting up there in age. Green is still a solid gatekeeper at 155 lbs, but going up against an elite grappler like Dawson is a tough matchup.

Dawson is one of the best grapplers at 155 lbs and I can’t see Green stopping his relentless takedowns. Look for Dawson to continue to shoot takedowns, get this fight to the ground, and grind on Green, making him tired. Since this is a five-round main event, I don’t think the fight goes the full distance. Go with Dawson to win at -445, and go with him by submission for a prop.

UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Grant Dawson wins at -445 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 80 Best Prop Bet: Grant Dawson wins by submission at DraftKings Sportsbook

Other UFC Vegas 80 Best Bets

Joe Pyfer (-455) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+350)

In the co-main event, Joe Pyfer fights Abdul Razak Alhassan at middleweight. Pyfer is a -455 favorite, and I fully expect him to win this fight in a devastating fashion.

Pyfer is 27 and he is 2-0 with two knockout wins since joining the UFC last year. “Be Joe Pyfer” was UFC president Dana White’s saying after Pyfer scored an incredible knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series last year to earn a UFC deal, and he hasn’t disappointed so far. 

He has big-time knockout power to win fights at this level and he also has the personality to become a star. Overall, Pyfer is an excellent fighter and someone who will be top-15 soon.

On the other hand, Alhassan feels like he’s seen better days. Now 38 years of age, Alhassan has been with the UFC since 2016 and he has a 6-5 record overall in the promotion. 

All six of his UFC wins have come by knockout, so he certainly has the power to finish his foes, but he has also been knocked out himself in the UFC, and his wrestling isn’t great either. Alhassan always has a puncher’s chance to win his fights, but at age 38, he’s clearly on the decline.

Alhassan isn’t a bad fighter, but he’s getting up there in age and he has been knocked out before. Pyfer possesses massive thunder in his fists and he has all sorts of momentum coming into this bout. Go with Pyfer to get the win as a -455 betting apps favorite and go with him to win by knockout.

UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Joe Pyfer wins at -455 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 80 Best Prop Bet: Joe Pyfer wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Montel Jackson (-192) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+160)

On the prelims, Montel Jackson takes on Chris Gutierrez at bantamweight. Jackson is a -192 favorite, and I like him to get his hand raised and win this fight.

Jackson is 31 years old and he has a 7-2 record in the UFC dating back to 2018. He has massive punching power, having recorded nine knockdowns during his UFC career, and he has never been knocked down himself. He is also a very solid wrestler who averages almost 3.5 takedowns a fight. He has also shown that he has the conditioning to go a strong 15 minutes. Overall, he is one of the most underrated bantamweights right now fighting on the UFC roster.

As for Gutierrez, he is 32 years old and he has a 7-2-1 record overall in the Octagon. He is a fantastic striker who possesses brutal leg kicks and he also has power in his hands, having scored five knockdowns in the UFC. That being said, after he was on a four-fight win streak, he lost to Pedro Munhoz in his last outing. Although Munhoz is a quality fighter, he is also one of the oldest fighters in the weight class, and losing to him in 2023 is a bad look for Gutierrez.

Jackson is one of the most underappreciated fighters at 135 lbs right now, and I like him to get the win in this bout. Look for Jackson to land big shots on the feet but mostly use his wrestling to get this fight to the ground and grind Gutierrez out for the win. It’s also worth noting that Jackson possesses an eight-inch reach advantage in this match. Go with Jackson to win this fight as a -192 betting favorite, and go with him to win this fight by decision if you like prop bets.

UFC Vegas 80 Best Bet: Montel Jackson wins at -192 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 80 Best Prop Bet: Montel Jackson wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

NOTE: This fight has been scratched. Chris Gutierrez now fights Alatengheili in a short-notice bantamweight bout on October 14 instead after Jackson was forced to withdraw from the bout. I lean toward Gutierrez winning this new contest.

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