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UFC Vegas 82 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Allen vs. Craig

Adam Martin for Bookies.com

Adam Martin  | 10 mins

UFC Vegas 82 Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets For Allen vs. Craig

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The Octagon heads back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday for UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs. Craig. The card features 14 fights in total, including a five-round middleweight main event between top-15 ranked fighters Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. We will predict an exciting headlining bout as well as two other fights in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks for UFC Vegas 82.

Favorite Underdog
Alex Pereira | -142 Jiri Prochazka | +120

Odds via DraftKings sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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UFC Vegas 82 Main Event Best Bet

Brendan Allen (-298) vs. Paul Craig (+240)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 82, Brendan Allen battles Paul Craig in a middleweight bout set for five rounds or less. Allen is a -298 favorite, a potential angle to explore on betting apps and I believe he likely wins inside the distance.

Allen is 27 and the American first joined the UFC in 2019, going 10-2 since then with seven wins by stoppage. His submission game has been impressive in the UFC as he has choked out some very good fighters including Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, and Krzysztof Jotko. 

He also has some solid striking skills to go along with his awesome submission game. Given how young he is, it is impressive to see how much experience Allen has racked up in such a short amount of time. He is a very good fighter who continues to get better and better every time he steps into the cage.

Craig is 35 and he has been in the UFC since 2016, going 9-6-1 overall in the UFC since then while fighting at both 205 lbs and, most recently, 185 lbs. The Scot has some very notable and impressive stoppage wins over former UFC light heavyweight champions Jamahal Hill and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, plus he has a submission win over top contender Magomed Ankalaev, so he has shown he has what it takes to beat elite opponents. 

That being said, he has also suffered a number of stoppage losses, including four knockout defeats inside the Octagon. Craig is an incredible submission artist, but his durability is still questionable. He looked great in his 185 lbs debut against the aforementioned Muniz back in July, but Allen is a different beast.

UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Brendan Allen wins at -298 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 82 Best Prop Bet: Brendan Allen wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets

Michael Morales (-278) vs. Jake Matthews (+225)

In the co-main event, rising welterweight prospect Michael Morales battles Jake Matthews. Morales is a -278 betting favorite, and I like him to keep his win streak going with a big win.

Morales is only 24 and the Ecuador native has a perfect 15-0 record as a professional MMA fighter, including a 3-0 mark in the UFC. Morales has looked great throughout his entire career, but especially in the UFC, where he has shown off well-rounded skills including powerful striking attacks on the feet to go along with solid grappling. 

He is one of these young MMA fighters who is good everywhere the fight goes, and he appears to be someone who could be a future title contender in the UFC welterweight division. The UFC matchmakers have been slowly building him up, and now he gets a step up against Matthews after beating Max Griffin in his last fight.

Matthews is only 29 years old but the Australian has been in the UFC for nearly a decade, with his debut coming back in 2014. He has a 12-6 record in the UFC since then with seven finishes, including a notable win over Li Jingliang. However, if you take a deeper look into Matthews’ record, most of the guys he has beaten are no longer on the roster. 

He is still a solid gatekeeper with decent striking and wrestling skills, but he’s not elite anywhere. Against Morales, he will likely have to fight a perfect fight to win, since it appears Morales has him covered everywhere this bout goes. It will certainly be interesting to see what kind of game plan Matthews has here.

I see Morales as the better fighter everywhere this bout goes. Most likely, Morales will be able to keep this fight upright and outstrike Matthews for however long this bout lasts. I am leaning toward Morales to win a decision in this bout as Matthews is known for his toughness and durability. Take Morales as a -278 favorite to win, and take him to win by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Michael Morales wins at -278 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 82 Best Prop Bet: Michael Morales wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Payton Talbott (-550) vs. Nick Aguirre (+410)

Also on the main card, bantamweight prospect Payton Talbott fights Nick Aguirre in his UFC debut. Talbott is a heavy -550 favorite, and I like him to win this fight with style points.

Talbott is only 25 and he has a perfect 6-0 as a pro MMA fighter so far. He made an appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in August, defeating Reyes Cortez Jr. in a fight where he landed 145 significant strikes. It was the first time in his MMA career that he went the distance, with all of his other pro fights ending via stoppage. 

Talbott showed his striking prowess in that fight, as he was able to constantly pressure his opponent and eventually break them. It’s also worth noting he stuffed 16 of 17 takedown attempts by Cortez. There is a lot to like about this young fighter, and Talbott looks to be another great addition to the stacked UFC 135 lbs roster.

Aguirre, meanwhile, is 27 years old and he made his UFC debut earlier this year, losing a decision to Dan Argueta. It wasn’t a very impressive debut for him, and he didn’t look UFC-ready at all in that bout. It’s worth mentioning that Aguirre also had an unbeaten record with all finishes before he joined the UFC, but his level of competition was very weak. 

Aguirre will be looking to take Talbott down to the ground and control him there, but it seems unlikely for him to do so, and if this fight stays standing, it could end up beating an ugly night for Aguirre.

I expect Talbott to keep this fight upright and land a significant amount of strikes on Aguirre, finishing him in the first round with a barrage of punches and knees along the fence. Take Talbott as a parlay piece at -550 odds, and go with him to win by TKO for a prop bet.

UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Payton Talbott wins at -550 at DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Vegas 82 Best Prop Bet: Payton Talbott wins by TKO with DraftKings Sportsbook at DraftKings Sportsbook

About the Author

Adam Martin for Bookies.com
Adam Martin
A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.