Amanda Nunes looks to cement herself on Saturday night in Las Vegas as the greatest female MMA fighter ever when she defends her bantamweight title against Holly Holm at UFC 239.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving Holm much of a shot to shock the world a second time, with the former bantamweight champion as a +275 underdog to Nunes’ -360 favorite with 888Sport. But while those odds are close to where they should be, there’s still some value to be had for fans of UFC betting.

Nunes-Holm Odds & Expert Pick

Amanda Nunes is the greatest female fighter of all-time. Holly Holm is an excellent but overrated fighter. After all, Holm is 2-4 in her last six fights and is getting this title shot based as much on name value as on recent accomplishment.

Holm is a good kickboxer with solid takedowns, but she doesn’t bring the same power or skill Nunes does to the cage. In fights where she is outskilled, Holm relies on her physicality to make things close, but in that area she is also found wanting against Nunes.

This fight should look very similar to the Nunes-Raquel Pennington fight, and Nunes closed around -600 in that fight, which is the price she should be here, so there is plenty of value in Nunes straight or as parlay fodder.

There’s also some value to be had in the prop bets. Though this should be a clear-cut win for Nunes, Holm has proven to be very durable and exceptionally good at shortening fights with time-sucking clinch work.

As Holm’s best skill is counterpunching, Nunes likely won’t force the issue too much either, meaning the most likely outcome of this fight is Nunes outpointing Holm over five rounds. At +275, Nunes by Decision is my best bet for this fight.

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