How You Can Profit At The Cheltenham Festival Just Backing Favourites
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Every year at the Cheltenham Festival, we see Willie Mullins and his band of merry horses win every race with big favourites. Or at least that's what it seems like, anyway. He has been the top trainer for the last few years and so many of his runners tend to be favourites. However, not all of them win. But how many do and how much money would you make just backing favourites?
Hundreds of millions will be punted on the 28 races over the four-day event, this year held between Tuesday 10th March and Friday 13th March. While it may seem that putting a few quid on each favourite is a winning strategy, that hasn’t always been the case at the Festival in the last 10 years.
Bookies.com analysed historical betting data to track the performance of favourites at the Cheltenham Festival over the past 10 years (2016-2025). Our study examines whether consistently backing the favourite in every race would lead to profit or loss.
The results show that since 2016, if bettors had placed a £10 bet on every favourite in every race, they would be down a total of £267.17 over that period. But if you split it up, there are races where favourites historically bring you profit.
Favourites In Chases Are Profitable
Some Cheltenham Festival races have featured the favourite in the winner’s circle more often than others. The Arkle Novices’ Chase has had the favourite win in seven of the last 10 years, and five of the last 10 favourites have won the Gold Cup, the Ryanair and the Brown Advisory.
Remarkably, considering the backing favourites is a negative strategy overall, if you had backed the favourite in every chase at the festival over the last 10 years, you would be in profit to the tune of £139.85.
With three of the most profitable races on the week being chases (Ultima, Trustatrader Plate, Gold Cup), it is no surprise they are more lucrative than their hurdle counterparts. You would think the increased number of runs horses generally running in chases have compared to hurdle races is helping punters land on the right horses more frequently in these contests.
But, it is still a surprise to see this as a profitable strategy over such a large number of races.
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Two Championship Races Profitable
Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle has proven to be one of the best long-term races for backing favourites, with Golden Ace’s win last year ending a five-year run of market leaders justifying their odds. The favourite has won in seven of the last 10 renewals, and you’d still be up £47.57 in that time.
The Gold Cup on Friday is even more lucrative over the last decade, though, netting punters an incredible £58.92 despite only five of the last 10 favourites winning.
Unfortunately, the two days in that sandwich are significantly less appealing. The Champions Chase on Wednesday has seen just three favourites win in the last 10 editions and only one has been victorious since 2019. You’d be £44.37 down if you’d backed every favourite in the last decade.
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Things are mildly better in the Stayers Hurdle but only marginally, as backing the favourite for the last 10 years would see you down £33.75. Only three favourites have won this race since 2016 and just one of those has come in the last six renewals.
The good news is that you’d be up a grand total of £28.37 by just backing favourites in the last decade in these four races, and you’d have profited in four of the last six Cheltenham Festivals by doing so.
Tuesday the Best for Favourites
Blindly placing £10 on favourites will only show a profit on one of the four Cheltenham Festival days over the last 10 years, with Tuesday well clear of the others. Backing the favourites with a tenner on the nose in all seven races on the opening day would have earned punters a tidy profit of £127.70 over the last 10 years. You would have made a profit in four of the last five Festivals, including a bumper £96.67 at the 2025 edition.
You’re probably thinking the Willie Mullins shorties are doing the heavy lifting here, but it is actually favourites winning the handicaps at decent prices doing all the work. The Trustatrader Plate and Ultima are actually the two most profitable races on the day over the last 10 years.
Compared to Wednesday (-£135.72), Thursday (-£171.82) and Friday (-£87.33) the best day for favourite backers is now clearly the opening day. Traditionally, the days got more bookmaker friendly as the meeting progressed, but a reshuffling of the races has meant that some of the better races for punters betting on the skinny ones now come at the beginning of the week.
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Avoid Favourites In These Races
While there are good days and races to keep up the betting on favourites, there are also historically bad races to be punting on the favourite for. None more so than the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.
Not one favourite has won either of those races for the last 10 years for a grand total of -£100 returned. The fact that they both occur on Friday - Gold Cup day - may not be a coincidence as punters like to lump on the marquee race of the week. Either way, it’s best to leave well alone for the time being if you want to back a favourite at top horse racing betting sites.
While no other races touch those for ineptitude of the favourites, the Fred Winter and Grand Annual run it close with just one winning favourite over the last 10 years for a profit of -£55.
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