2023 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Were aged between 5-8
• Had won no more than five hurdle races
• Had won no more than two handicap hurdles
• Had run at least twice that season, five winning
• Finished in first two in one of their last six races
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago - i.e. in December
• Last ran in a hurdle race - nine last running in a handicap hurdle

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Had won on a galloping track (exception Mall Dini 2016)
• Were officially rated 139 or higher (Mrs Milner was rated 134)
• Carried at least 10st 10lb to victory (Mrs Milner carried 10st 9lb)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were NOT sent off favourite in the betting on the day
• Had never won a Graded race; exceptions Grade 1 winner Fingal Bay (2014) and dual Pertemps winner Sire Du Berlais (2020)
• Had not run in more than five handicap hurdles (Sire Du Berlais 2020, Mrs Milner 2021)
• Had never run in the Pertemps Final before (dual winner Sire Du Berlais and Third Wind, who was fourth behind him in 2020)

Key Trials from the last 10 years

To run in the 2023 Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival, horses must have finished in the first four in one or more of the qualifying Pertemps Hurdle Series races. Up to this season, they only had to finish in the first six.

• Four of the last 10 winners (Mrs Milner, Sire Du Berlais, Mall Dini and Presenting Percy) finished between fourth and sixth in the Leopardstown Pertemps Hurdle Race on December 28. 2020 winner Sire Du Berlais again ran in the Leopardstown race before his second Pertemps Final win, but could only finish ninth. The 2022 fourth had been second in December at Leopardstown.
• Three of the last 10 winners (Delta Work, Mall Dini and Presenting Percy) finished third or fourth in the Punchestown Pertemps Hurdle Race in January/February, though this now takes place in November.
• 2022 winner Third Wind qualified by finishing third in the Warwick qualifier.

Trainer Trends

• Jonjo O’Neill leads the way with four wins in this contest, but only one of those (2013) has come in the last decade.
• The form trainer is undoubtedly Gordon Elliott who has won three of the last five editions of the race.
• Pat Kelly and David Pipe have each won the raced twice, Kelly doing so with only two runners, earning himself a 100% strike-rate!
• Trainers based in Ireland have won the six of the last seven renewals.

Jockey Trends

• The semi-retired Davy Russell, who may or may not ride at this year's meeting, is the in-form rider in the Pertemps. He’s ridden three winners and a second in the last six years. No jockey has won the race more than three times in its history.

How did the trends do last year?

Third Wind was not a good trends pick, as he had run in the race before, won a Graded race, and did not run in a handicap hurdle last time out.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2023?

Maxxum, trained by man of the moment Gordon Elliott, won the famous Leopardstown qualifier, beating stablemate Eric Bloodaxe, Good Time Jonny and Perceval Legallois. Of that quartet of qualifiers, the latter fits the trends best.

For those interested in the Warwick qualifier, which was contested by last year's winner before their Festival win, it was won by <strong>Glimpse Of Gala</strong>, with <strong>Ashtown Lad</strong>, <strong>Lieutenant Rocco</strong> and the Gordon Elliott-trained <strong>Level Neverending</strong> also qualifying.

Best fitting the trends is the Becher Chase winner Ashtown Lad, who is a dour stayer, with only one handicap hurdle win and only two hurdle wins overall leaving him very unexposed, whilst also clearly able to do the job. He's also proven he's ideally suited to left-handed, galloping tracks, just like Cheltenham.

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2022 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Result