Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2026/27: Haaland Clear Favourite Over Isak and Thiago
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Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2026/27
In a sentence that will surprise nobody, football betting sites think Erling Haaland will be top scorer in the Premier League once again this season. The Manchester City striker scored 27 goals last campaign, seeing off a surprise challenge from Brentford's Igor Thiago who netted 22 times to keep Haaland in check.
Haaland has now won the Golden Boot in three of his four Premier League seasons, totalling 112 strikes in just 132 appearances. Now that one of his regular challengers in Mo Salah has left English football, the odds suggest that this could be nothing more than a procession for the Norwegian star.
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Haaland Top Scorer Challengers
Betting apps were offering odds-against prices that Erling Haaland finishes top scorer in the Premier League last season, but they haven't made the same mistake this time around.
Given his short price, it's far more tempting to look elsewhere than wait nine months for a 4/6 shot to land. We've broken down his main competitors for the Golden Boot below:
Alexander Isak
It felt like the saga that would never end last summer but Liverpool finally got their man after paying £125 million for the wantaway Isak. It's safe to say he did not live up to expectations as a combination of no preseason at Newcastle, various injury issues and the emergence of Hugo Ekitike meant the Swede scored only four times.
Nevertheless, he was signed for big money for a reason and the Reds will be hoping he delivers another 20-goal season, as he did in his last two campaigns in the north-east. It'll probably take more than the 23 he scored in 2024/25 to topple Haaland, but it should give him a run for his money.
Igor Thiago
In a surprising turn, it was Brentford's Igor Thiago who was Haaland's closest challenger last term. The Brazilian scored 11 in the Bees' first 13 games last season and although he didn't match that strike rate over the rest of the season, he still added another 11 to pull up right behind Haaland in the charts.
There may be some concern that eight of his 22 goals were from the penalty spot, and whilst they do all count, if the Bees aren't able to win as many penalties then Thiago may struggle to keep pace with Haaland again this season.
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Joao Pedro
Joao Pedro was one of the surprises of last season, scoring 15 goals in a dysfunctional Chelsea side that ended up 10th after a dreadful final third of the campaign. The former Brighton man was never really in the reckoning for the Golden Boot after only scoring six times in the first half of the season but enjoyed a purple patch at the start of 2026, netting eight times in as many matches.
Pedro is likely to lead the line once again as Liam Delap hasn't really laid down a marker in the blue of Chelsea, but the depth available to Xabi Alonso means Pedro is far from guaranteed to play 90 minutes every week.
Viktor Gyokeres
Much was made of Arsenal's expensive decision to sign Viktor Gyokeres last summer, with the club shelling out £55 million to sign the then 27-year-old off the back of two great seasons in Portugal. Then, after all that, the Swede managed just five goals in his first 21 Premier League games.
Things picked up remarkably after that bedding in period, though, to a point that even though the Gunners won the title, nobody seemed to realise that Gyokeres netted 14 times in total and scored nine times in the final 15 games of the season. If he hits the ground running then he could be a challenger to Haaland.
Ollie Watkins
Another player who perhaps slipped under the radar once again last term, Ollie Watkins made it four seasons in a row in with 15+ Premier League goals to his name. The England man endured a slow start that put paid to any chance of winning the Golden Boot, scoring just once in his first 13 games, but ended on a high with eight goals in as many games to end the campaign.
It would be a surprise if Watkins doesn't have another excellent season that perhaps goes unnoticed to many except Villa fans, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he poses a threat to Haaland.
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Betting Without Haaland Market Odds
One of the main ways to get value in the Golden Boot market is to simply remove Haaland from the equation. Some cash out betting sites offer a Top Scorer Without Erling Haaland market, which effectively takes him out of proceedings and pays out on the player who scores the most goals after that.
If Haaland does indeed win the Golden Boot then you're basically backing the player you think will be second-top scorer. Should Haaland not take the award for the fourth time in five seasons, you'll effectively get worse odds on your chosen player compared to the standard market, but in the knowledge you don't have to worry about Haaland.
| Player | Goals | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak | 0 | 4/1 | BetVictor |
| Igor Thiago | 0 | 6/1 | TalkSport Bet |
| Joao Pedro | 0 | 8/1 | Betano |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 0 | 8/1 | Parimatch |
| Ollie Watkins | 0 | 10/1 | TalkSport Bet |
| Cole Palmer | 0 | 12/1 | Parimatch |
| Benjamin Sesko | 0 | 14/1 | BetVictor |
| Antoine Semenyo | 0 | 14/1 | Betano |
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Who Are the Best Each-Way Bets for Top Scorer?
Football betting sites are offering 1/4 the odds for four places on Premier League Top Goalscorer bets before the season starts.
There's usually a couple of players who manage to get near the top of the charts that very few people would expect to have done so. For example, Antoine Semenyo netted 17 times last term to finish third in the standings at around 40/1, whilst Dominic Calvert-Lewin just missed out on top-four by two goals and would've paid out nicely at around 80/1.
One each-way bet worth considering is Bryan Mbeumo. The Manchester United striker had a decent start to his debut season at Old Trafford and ended up with 11 goals all told. Not enough to get him anywhere near the Golden Boot, but the 20 he scored for Brentford the season before put him fourth in the standings.
With Bruno Fernandes thriving under Michael Carrick, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mbeumo score a few more than 11 this time around.
Being the direct set-piece taker for any team is always a bonus in markets like this and that's why Morgan Gibbs-White is also a reasonable bet. The Nottingham Forest man put the team on his back during the fight for survival last year, scoring 15 times in total including nine in his final 10 games.
The midfielder takes free kicks for Forest and is also second-choice penalty taker behind Chris Wood, so could get plenty of chances to rack up the set piece goals. His 15 goals put him fifth in the Golden Boot race, so just outside the each-way places, but it's certainly feasible that he is in the fight once again.
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Previous Premier League Top Scorers
The last few years have been dominated by Erling Haaland and Mo Salah, with Haaland scooping three Golden Boots in the last four years and Salah grabbing two in the last five. One of those was shared with Son Heung-min in 2021/22.
Harry Kane obliged at odds of 6/1 the season before that, although Bruno Fernandes ran into third at 33/1, and Leeds United striker Patrick Bamford was able to land a joint-fourth position at 150/1. This serves to highlight that there can be excellent value betting on an outsider on an each-way basis.
The 2019-20 Premier League season saw a 20/1 winner in the form of Jamie Vardy, with the Leicester City striker able to score 23 goals, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings were able to notch 22 goals. The latter was priced at 250/1, and it’s generally the case that a player of this price runs into the places.
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How Many Goals Are Needed to be Premier League Top Scorer?
Anything around 25 seemed to be the magic number for quite a few years, although there was a bit of a lull between 2018/19 and 2021/22 when nobody bagged more than 23. The arrival of Erling Haaland then saw the number of goals required shoot up, with his winning tallies coming in at 36 and 27 (twice).
At the higher end, 30 goals is likely to get you the Golden Boot award. Only one player has failed to finish as top goalscorer with 30 goals in a season in the last three decades. That was Harry Kane, and he managed it twice.
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