Valero Texas Open Picks

For the world’s top players, this is a week of rest and recovery in preparation for the Masters. For everyone else, the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio represents one last, desperate chance to claim an invitation to Augusta National.

With only nine players in the field who have already secured Masters invitations, there’s a lot more on the line than just a trophy and a check. And with the top 16 golfers in the world skipping the event, the Valero Texas Open features the very real possibility of producing a long-odds, value-laden winner of the type we’ve seen plenty of over the past decade at TPC San Antonio—such as Steven Bowditch, Kevin Chappell, Andrew Landry and even last year’s champion J.J. Spaun.

World No. 17 Tyrrell Hatton opened as the favorite on golf betting sites to win the tournament at +1200 (12/1), though he was last seen nursing his right wrist and going 0-for-3 in last week’s World Golf Championship Match Play event. Next is +1600 (16/1) Rickie Fowler, trying to win for the first time since the 2019 Phoenix Open. Spaun, who won last year as a +11000 (110/1) longshot, is +3500 (35/1) on golf betting apps to repeat in an event that feels as wide open as the skies above Texas Hill Country.

Valero Texas Open Odds

Valero Texas Open Course Overview

Although the tournament dates back to the 1920s, the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio has been home of the Valero Texas Open since 2010. Designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia, the course follows the contours of the natural terrain and plays for the pros as a 7,435-yard, par-72 layout. Fairways are narrow but approach areas are wide, theoretically offering players multiple routes to the green. 

Strategically, the course can be a bear given the aggressive nature of bunker placements and limestone rock that often lines the back edges of hazards. And the par-5s are no gimmies—that’s particularly true of the signature hole at the Oaks Course, a par-5 18th that can be stretched as long as 620 yards. Even the biggest hitters are forced to use longer irons than they’re accustomed to on approach, and there’s no good place to miss given the presence of a boulder-strewn creek in front of the green and multiple bunkers behind it.

The Oaks Course also isn’t a layout that gives up birdies easily—Spaun won last year after closing with back-to-back 69s, and no player who finished in the top 10 went lower than 66. Consistently ranked among the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour, the TPC San Antonio Oaks layout blends water, bunkers, terrain and wind into a mix that can challenge even the game’s elite.

Valero Texas Open Previous Winners

2022: J.J. Spaun

2021: Jordan Spieth

2019: Corey Conners

2018: Andrew Landry

2017: Kevin Chappell

2016: Charley Hoffman

2015: Jimmy Walker

2014: Steven Bowditch

2013: Martin Laird

2012: Ben Curtis

Valero Texas Open Betting Angles

Hatton as the favorite on USA sports betting sites makes sense, given that he’s the highest-ranked player in the field and was runner-up in The Players Championship before taking the goose egg in the WGC Match Play. He’s trying to win on U.S. soil for just the second time, and first since taking the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020. Fowler’s signs of life this year include a T11 at Torrey Pines, a T10 at Phoenix and a T13 in The Players, but in each case, a final round in the 70s scuttled any chances of winning.

Corey Conners, who won the Texas Open in 2019, has the best average finish in the event of any player with more than one career start (19.0) and is a +2200 (22/1) wager to win again this week on sports betting apps. Kevin Streelman has been T18, solo sixth and T8 in his last three starts in San Antonio, but he’s a +9000 (90/1) bet to win this weekend after missing cuts in three of his last five starts. A better option might be +2500 (25/1) Chris Kirk, who has a trio of top-10 finishes in San Antonio and has finished top-three three times this season—including a victory at The Honda Classic, an event with a similarly weak field.

Sony Open in Hawaii winner Si Woo Kim has finished as high as T4 at the Valero Texas Open, and is priced at +2200 (22/1) with betting sites to win again this weekend. Carrying the same odds is Hideki Matsuyama, the second highest-ranked player in the field behind Hatton, who has a WD and a T30 in two San Antonio starts. Pebble Beach runner-up Brendon Todd finished T8 in the Texas Open last season, and is a +4000 (40/1) bet to win his first PGA Tour event since 2020.

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Valero Texas Open Predictions

Davis Riley to Win, +2500 (25/1)

In the era of “designated” events, this isn’t the Valero Texas Open we’ve seen in the past—the likes of Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are long gone. That opens the door for a player like Riley, whose best PGA Tour finish is a playoff loss to Sam Burns in last year’s Valspar, and as of now isn’t in the Masters field. But he’s capable of changing that, given that he posted a T8 at the Arnold Palmer and a T19 at this year’s Valspar. And take note: San Antonio has produced first-time winners in five of the last 11 years.

Chris Kirk Top 5, +550 (11/2)

Kirk won the Honda Classic in a playoff, opened the Arnold Palmer with a 67—and since has proceeded to shoot five consecutive rounds in the 70s. TPC San Antonio offers a needed change of scenery for a player who closed 67-68 on his way to a T6 finish there in 2021, and carded a 66 as part of an eighth-place performance at the Oaks Course in 2018. Kirk’s Masters spot is secure, so he’s facing less pressure this week than most of the field.

Cam Davis Top 10, +500 (5/1)

The Australian rebounded from a string of five consecutive missed cuts to tie for sixth at The Players, an effort highlighted by a third-round 67 that was one shot off his best 18-hole score this year. But he really broke through last week at the WGC Match Play, where he went 2-1 with group-stage wins over Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise. Davis (who is also not yet in the Masters field) is a big hitter who feasts on par-5s, and it’s safe to say he’s left that string of MCs behind him.

How to Watch The Valero Texas Open

Thursday and Friday, Golf Channel from 4-7 p.m. EDT; Saturday, Golf Channel from 1-3:30 p.m. and NBC from 3-6 p.m.; Sunday, Golf Channel from 1-2 p.m. and NBC from 2-6 p.m.