Jim Coventry

The Rams’ passing attack has reached a level where matchup disadvantages rarely matter- Matthew Stafford is dealing, and defenses simply haven’t had answers for his connection with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Even if the run game sputters at times, LA consistently finishes drives with touchdowns, not field goals. Seattle has playmakers, but Sam Darnold becomes far less reliable when pressured, and the Rams’ pass rush is likely to rattle him. With the Seahawks’ ground game still inconsistent, falling behind would force Darnold into obvious passing situations, an edge firmly in LA’s favor. With Stafford playing at an MVP level and the Rams rolling, laying the field goal is the right side. Rams 27, Seahawks 20.

This rematch sets up well for Cincinnati to stay inside the number. Pittsburgh will again lean on Jaylen Warren and their tight ends, and while the Bengals struggled with that in the first meeting, their offense is positioned to trade punches all afternoon. The Steelers must sell out to contain Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which opens the door for Chase Brown to exploit their shaky outside run defense. With both teams capable of moving the ball and little resistance expected on either side, this profiles as another shootout where the final possession likely decides it, making +5.5 too generous to pass up. Bengals 31, Steelers 30.

Atlanta is in a prime revenge spot at home after being embarrassed 30-0 in the first meeting. The Falcons hold meaningful edges across the board: Tyler Allgeier should feast on Carolina’s soft interior, Bijan Robinson can stress the edges, and Michael Penix gets a clean pocket against a defense that struggles to generate pressure. With Drake London and Kyle Pitts both drawing mismatches, Atlanta should create far more explosive plays this time. Carolina’s best hope is leaning heavily on Rico Dowdle, but on the road against a fast, prepared Falcons defense that already has film on Bryce Young, that’s unlikely to carry four quarters. With urgency high and matchup advantages on both sides, Atlanta is positioned to bounce back and win by a touchdown. Falcons 23, Panthers 16.

Cleveland brings an excellent pass rush and tight coverage, which should tilt the field in their favor. The Jets defense has struggled to generate big plays and just traded away their two best defenders, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, leaving major holes up front and in coverage. Quinshon Judkins has a strong matchup against a soft interior run defense that struggles in short yardage, and Cleveland’s tight ends should control the middle of the field. With the Jets unsettled at quarterback and limited offensive rhythm, the Browns are positioned to control the tempo and cover.

Indianapolis’ balanced offense and superior line play should control the flow, with Jonathan Taylor consistently setting up manageable situations for Daniel Jones. Aaron Rodgers will put up some points at home, but the Colts’ defense matches up well, stuffing the run and pressuring Rodgers into a couple of key mistakes- giving Indianapolis a solid road win.

Los Angeles’ offensive firepower and schematic advantages should allow them to control the game. The Chargers can run at will and set up Herbert for easy intermediate strikes, building a steady lead. Meanwhile, the Titans’ undermanned offense (lacking a true vertical threat and protection) will struggle to sustain drives against the Chargers’ pass rush. Barring a turnover spree, the Chargers have the matchups to cover the spread comfortably and secure a two-score victory on the road.