Adam Thompson

The Cowboys finally showed up the last two weeks, falling to the mighty Steelers close, then rolling the surging Vikings. But Minnesota actually dominated Dallas’ defense, and Andy Dalton only passed for 203 yards vs. the Vikings’ porous secondary. Washington’s defense ranks No. 1 in pass yards allowed. Washington is 2-3 in its last five games, including a 25-3 beatdown of Dallas. All three losses by a FG or less. Alex Smith passed for 300-plus in his first two starts before the run game took over vs. Cincy. Dallas has allowed two-straight 300-yard throwing weeks. (Locked in at +3)

The Lions were blanked in embarrassing fashion at Carolina, while the Texans beat the Patriots. But Houston has just one road win, and that was a nail-biter vs. the Jaguars. The Lions have covered in five of six Turkey Day games against opponents with worse records. The three-win Texans comply. Deshaun Watson is going to get his vs. Detroit, but a healthier Lions offense can put up points on this Houston defense, too. The Lions have the RBs to ground and pound and keep the ball out of Watson’s hands. If they get a lead, they can pull away. (Locked in at +3)

Tom Brady has made short work of teams that can’t pressure him. But the Rams rank No. 3 in getting after QBs. The Rams’ front 7 and Jalen Ramsey shutting down WR1 has been a boon to the L.A. defense. The Bucs haven’t played well in prime-time, just 1-2 with ugly losses to the Saints and Bears. We can’t trust Jared Goff and the Rams defense, but getting more than a FG in what should be a good game is the way to go. If Goff plays well, the Rams win outright. (Locked in at +4.5)

These offenses can certainly score, but the defenses have been the strength for both. The Rams rank No. 2 in yards allowed and no offense has managed more than 16 points against Los Angeles in the past six weeks. The Bucs’ defenders are no slouch, comprising the top unit in the NFL against the run. The Under has hit in the past six Rams games and in five of six Bucs games vs. above-.500 teams.

Drew Brees is out and while the Saints aren’t naming a starter until the deadline, he’s likely replaced by his polar opposite. Brees ranked 32nd in average length of throw. Jameis Winston last year ranked No. 1 in average length of throw. That seemingly opens up the New Orleans offense, but it could mean more looks far downfield and fewer dumpoffs to Alvin Kamara. Is that a good thing? Atlanta has won three of four under new coach Raheem Morris and isn’t far from being a 7-2 team. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight on the road, and this is too many points to be giving an offense on a roll with such weaponry. (Locked in at +5)

Big Ben can have a day here. The Steelers are averaging 31.8 ppg the last six weeks and the Jags rank 30th in pass yards allowed. QB ratings vs. this defense has averaged 107.8, ahead only the Texans. Jacksonville battled vs. Green Bay but rookie QB Jake Luton came back down to earth against second-string CBs. Its run game was effective but the Steelers’ are far better up front. Frankly, it’s going to be tough for the Jaguars to hit double-figure scoring. It’s more likely this number goes to 10.5 than 9.5. (Locked in at -10)

Houston can sling it, but the Patriots’ defense is good at stopping the pass and Deshaun Watson gets no relief from the run game. Stephon Gilmore is a shutdown corner; he’s finally on pace to return and that’s huge this week. His presence makes this a good bet. On the other side, New England clearly wants to be a run-first team, and it has the QB to do that. Cam Newton has three times as many rushing TDs than passing TDs. No defense is worse at slowing rush attacks than Houston. Cam, to his credit, also has the No. 2 passer rating in the NFL in the second halves of games, behind only Aaron Rodgers. Houston is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as underdog. Look for NE to pound the rock, keep the ball out of Deshaun’s hands and win the possession battle in a massive way. (Locked in at -2)

The Seahawks’ defense his bad on a historic level, and now Russell Wilson is clearly forcing throws due to a lack of confidence that the defense can slow anyone down. Seattle won’t have an answer for Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have been underdogs three times this season, and won each game straight-up, including a 37-34 win over the Seahawks (Locked in at +3.5).

Baltimore looked like a decent bet at -7 and with Stephon Gilmore returning for the Patriots. But he's been declared inactive and the line has shifted to -6.5. New England has shown little confidence in Cam Newton, and the Pats won't be able to get it done with a one-dimensional offense vs. a Ravens defense that is equally good on both fronts.

The Rams went into their bye week after dominating, yet losing, to the Dolphins, thanks mostly to the horrid play of Jared Goff. Two weeks later, the Rams have their top weapons back from injury, and no defense is been worse at the pass – in NFL history – than Seattle in 2020. Russell Wilson is having an MVP season on the other side, but the Rams rank sixth in TDs allowed and 12th in yards to WRs, and L.A.’s defense gets a boost with the return of S Jordan Fuller and the addition of DL A’Shawn Robinson. Seattle is just 2-6 ATS in its last six trips to L.A., while the Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine following a defeat. (Locked in at -1.5)

The Chargers are a ridiculous 2-6, having been outscored by just 11 points all year as just one of five teams to rank in the top-half of the NFL in rushing offense and defense and passing offense and defense. Eventually the players must overcome the poor coaching from the sidelines and pull one out. Tua Tagovailoa is 2-0 as a starter and Miami has won four straight, but the Dolphins rank 24th or worse in the Big Four categories mentioned above. They can’t get by on defensive and special teams TDs forever – which is how they’ve won their last two games. (Locked in at +3)

The Eagles haven’t performed well as a favorite (1-5 ATS in their last six in that position), while the Giants have been a good bet as the underdog (5-0 ATS). But the Philly defense has the pass rush to get through New York’s poor O-line, and the backfield to take advantages vs. mistake-prone Daniel Jones. Philly gets Miles Sanders back from injury, which should give a boost to Carson Wentz, who needs to get on track. Facing the Giants’ 26th-ranked pass defense is a good place to start following the bye. (Locked in at -3)

Rookie QB Jake Luton did his part in his first start – the Jaguars still lost to the two-win Texans. Now he heads to Lambeau – a different animal against a Packers team that has far more playmakers on each side of the ball. The Jaguars have allowed at least 30 points in all but two games, the Packers have scored at least 30 in all but two. Jacksonville ranks 27th vs. both the run and pass, and it won’t have its kicker and possibly its top playmaking WR in the mix. Green Bay has covered in all six of its wins. In the last 10 games with a kickoff under 55 degrees, Jacksonville is 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS. The forecast Sunday calls for high 40s and rain at kickoff. Expect a big day for Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. (Locked in at -13)

Bradley Chubb returns to join Kareem Hunt and the best rush attack in the NFL. And it should be a nice welcome against a Texans defense that has allowed more rush yards than any team in the league. This is the perfect matchup for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield can game manage, the Browns can put all their eggs into slowing Deshaun Watson, especially if David Johnson doesn’t play. Lock this in before the line moves.