Adam Thompson

Adam Thompson

NFL MLB NBA Horse Racing NCAAF Golf Nascar NCAAB UFC Premier League

Performance

Sport Last 7 Days Last 30 Days Current Season Past Season
NFL 13-7 all picks in Wk1 NFL '21 -> Best Bets: 2-3; Prime Time Props: 11-4; NFL '20 -> Best Bets: 62-38 (62%); Playoffs: 13-2 (86.7%). '19: 64.4% Best Bets, +5,321 on all NFL picks
MLB 8-1 +810 August '21 -> 33-23 +556 67-54 L121 (+1041); 17-9 (+1420) WS Picks/Props
NBA 2-0 (100%) 40-32 (55.6%) NBA '20-'21 -> Games: 168-130 (56.4%); Props: 140-121 (53.6%) +934 94-47 (66.7%), 22-8 L30 O/U (73.3%)
Horse Racing 2021 Preakness exacta winner $10 -> $480; 2021 Derby-Oaks winner (w/Mandaloun); Belmont Exacta Winner $10 -> $75; TVG Pacific Classic: $2 -> $93
NCAAF
Golf 2021 Masters/PGA/Open: 11-1 +1138
Nascar 1-2 +400
NCAAB
UFC
Premier League 18-11 L29 (+794)

About Adam Thompson

NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com.

Adam Thompson's Picks

PAST PICKS
MLB
Moneyline
Athletics over Angels
Win
Athletics
-128
Frankie Montas vs. Shohei Ohtani is marquee, and of course Ohtani is getting the love. But Montas has outpitched him lately and the Angels offense has been a mess. Montas is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA over the last month-plus, Ohtani has a better record over his last seven starts (5-1) but a worse ERA (3.61). The Angels likely won’t let him go long – they weren’t even sure they’d let him pitch again but relenting. L.A’s bats rank 29th at home since mid-August and are averaging 3.9 rpg anywhere in that span. (Locked in at -128)
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MLB
Run Line
Red Sox -1.5 over Orioles
Win
Red Sox -1.5
-154
Nathan Eovaldi has a 1.90 ERA over his last seven starts and dominated the Orioles in the one game against them this season, while O’s starter Alexander Wells is 1-3 with an 8.39 ERA in the same span. He hasn’t made it past four innings in his last four starts, and Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 6.29 ERA over the last month, worst in the majors. Hitting-wise it isn’t very close, either. Over the last 30 days, Boston’s .922 OPS at Fenway is nearly 300 points higher than Baltimore’s road split. (Locked in at -154)
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MLB
Run Line
Yankees -1.5 over Indians
Loss
Yankees -1.5
-155
While these teams are hitting at around the same clip of late, the pitching matchup is not so even. Gerrit Cole gets a couple more starts, including this one, to keep his status as favorite to win the AL Cy Young, so there’s added personal motivation. He allowed one run and struck out 11 vs. Cleveland earlier this season. Eli Morgan actually hasn’t allowed a run in two straight road starts, but even with that strong run his ERA is 6.03 over the last 15. (Locked in at -155)
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NFL
Spread
Broncos over Jaguars
Win
Broncos
-6
The Broncos handled the Giants in every way in Week 1, while the Jaguars were down 20 in the first half vs. the Texans in a game many saw as the bottom two teams facing off. Denver is a playoff team at every position but QB, and Teddy Bridgewater is the perfect signal-caller. More important for now, the Broncos are better than the Jaguars everywhere right now except maybe WR – and Bridgewater has covered the spread in 22 out of 25 career road games. A TD-sized road win is doable here. (Locked in at -6)
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NFL
Spread
Saints over Panthers
Loss
Saints
-3
The Panthers looked good enough at home to best the Jets, but New York is a bottom-five NFL team. The Saints just wrecked havoc on the Packers, and while losing CB Marshon Lattimore hurts, the defense did amazing work vs. Green Bay’s tough 1-2 RB punch. Christian McCaffrey must will the Panthers to points, because Sam Darnold is going to be in trouble against this tough front. Jameis Winston is playing with extreme confidence. No Drew Brees, but the Saints have beaten the Panthers eight out of nine games, the last two in Charlotte by 26 and 32. (Locked in at -3)
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NFL
Spread
Steelers over Raiders
Loss
Steelers
-5
The Raiders and Derek Carr were a nice surprise in an OT win over the Ravens. But the scenarios are way different this week. This won’t be a first-ever home game with fans for Vegas against a team with no RBs and a downturning, banged-up defense. The Steelers’ defense is just different, the 10 a.m. Vegas start in the Steel City different. Najee Harris is poised for a big game, too. Both sides of the line favor Pittsburgh in a big, big way. (Locked in at -5)
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NFL
Over/Under
Raiders-Steelers Under
Win
Under
47
The Raiders put up 33 on the Ravens on Monday night, but it required 400-plus passing yards and OT to make it happen. It was also at home. The Raiders are notorious for flops following great games, and there is no better front 7 than the one waiting in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense isnu2019t firing yet. They managed 23 points at Buffalo, but held the powerful Bills to 17. (Locked in at 48)
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NFL
Spread
Patriots over Jets
Win
Patriots
-5.5
The Patriots should have won and covered in Week 1 vs. the Dolphins, had James White not fumbled on their final drive. In reality, the Pats dominated Miami in every other way, and Mac Jones had a productive debut (281 yards). Just as Sam Darnold was before him, Zach Wilson is all alone in New York. He spent too much time trying not to get squashed, and the non-existant run game didnu2019t help. The Jets lost their top OL so that wonu2019t help here, either. The Jets got blanked in the first half vs. Carolina. The Pats have won 10 straight in this series. (Locked in at -5.5)
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MLB
Total Runs
Padres-Giants Under 8.5
Joe Musgrove hasn’t fared well vs. San Francisco lately, but those outings were back-to-back in May and he’s been a different pitcher recently. Take away a bizarre meltdown vs. the horrid Diamondbacks, and Musgrove has a 1.59 ERA over his last eight starts. The Giants are going with a bullpen game, which has a lot of unknown scenarios that make them nightmare for bettors. But SF’s relievers own a cumulative 2.28 ERA over the last month, and their top guys are rested. (Locked in at -111)
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MLB
Moneyline
Cardinals over Mets
Two teams heading in opposite directions. St. Louis has won four straight, including the last two over these Mets. Jon Lester goes for the Cardinals, and that’s someone I typically like to back. But he owns a mid-3’s ERA over the last seven starts and hasn’t lost any of those contests. The Mets have lost seven of 11, many of those games by just one run. Tylor Megill owns a 5.74 ERA in eight starts in August and September. The Cards’ .851 OPS on the road over the last month ranks second to the Blue Jays. The Mets rank 20th in hitting off lefties in the same time frame. (Locked in at +157)
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MLB
Moneyline
Giants over Padres
Win
Giants
-160
The Giants have already clinched a playoff berth, but homefield advantage and even a division title are still up for grabs, so motivation is strongly there. Not so much for the Padres, who have totally tanked in the last month. Their offense ranks dead-last in runs scored, just 3.4 per game. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a modest seven runs over 16.1 innings vs. San Diego, but he keeps the ball in the park at home (three HRs allowed, compared to 15 on the road). Jake Arrieta has allowed eight runs in 8.1 innings since joining the Padres and owns a 7.04 ERA over the entire season. (Locked in at -160)
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MLB
Moneyline
Athletics over Royals
Loss
Athletics
-161
The Oakland offense and its bullpen have tanked in this stretch run. The only split it’s done well in lately is hitting off RHPs on the road, crushing them at an .804 clip. Jackson Kovar lasted 1.1 innings vs. the A’s earlier this season and owns a .309 average allowed and 1.88 WHIP over the season. Speaking of hitting off RHPs, KC is hitting .587 off them at home over the last month. Frankie Montas has had a great second half of the year, 6-3 with a 2.98 ERA over his last 15 starts. (Locked in at -161)
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MLB
Moneyline
Braves over Rockies
Loss
Braves
-155
The Rockies have had the Braves’ number the last couple seasons, and Jon Gray has given Atlanta bats fits over his career. But Gray is not throwing well right now, allowing 16 runs his last 21 innings, and the Atlanta offense is, of course, raking at a far better clip at home than the Colorado bats on the road. Touki Toussaint was hit hard by the Rockies at Coors two weeks ago but his average allowed is way better at home, and he’ll get a quick hook for a bullpen that’s playing well. Gray and the Rockies don’t have such a luxury. (Locked in at -155)
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NFL
Spread
Patriots over Dolphins
Loss
Patriots
-3
Sure, the Dolphins went 10-6 last season, the Patriots just 7-9. But Miami won 10 games despite an offense and a defense that each ranked outside the top 20 overall. QB Tua Tagovailoa struggled to the point that Miami was reportedly looking to acquire Deshaun Watson as recently as this week. New England might be the most-improved team in football, and not just because the uninspired Cam Newton is out and rookie Mac Jones is in. Eight Pats players opted out due to Covid last year, and many of them return. They added two elite TEs in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, and made a splash on defense by adding a starting CB and Edge rusher. Jones and New England’s slew of RBs should benefit playing against one of the bottom-five D-lines in the game. (Locked in at -3)
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NFL
Spread
Broncos over Giants
Win
Broncos
-3
The Broncos are a playoff team on paper, minus QB. But Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t make mistakes – he’s not a huge playmaker, but he won’t kill your team either – and perhaps that is what Denver needs right now. The Giants are overmatched in the trenches on both sides, and Saquon Barkley won’t be the Saquon of 2019 until he gets a game or two under his belt. (Locked in at -3)
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MLB
Moneyline
Rangers over Athletics
Win
Rangers
+170
James Kaprielian hasn’t been a pitcher to fade when throwing in Oakland. But this will be his sixth start vs. Texas, his 3.81 ERA in those games is only average, and the rookie may be slipping with a 6.15 ERA over his last seven starts. Rangers starter Taylor Hearn is trending in the right direction with a 3.61 ERA in his last six games. Texas’ offense has outplayed Oakland’s in every facet over the last month, too. (Locked in at +170)
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MLB
Moneyline
Blue Jays over Orioles
Win
Blue Jays
-220
Zack Wheeler has allowed six runs over his last five starts. He just needs support, and should get it here with a Blue Jays offense that’s averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last month, owns an .838 OPS in that span and an OPS of .927 on the road. The Orioles’ offense has picked it up at home lately, but starter Zac Lowther has been highly inconsistent and isn’t likely to go deep. Baltimore’s bullpen is the worst in the majors. (Locked in at -220)
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NFL
Spread
49ers over Lions
Win
49ers
-7.5
Giving a TD away on a road team in Week 1 sounds crazy. But backing Jared Goff and the worst defense in the land sounds crazier. The Niners are fully reloaded after injuries blew up their 2020 season. This team resembles the 2019 squad that went 13-3 and should have won the Super Bowl. Detroit replaced the heart and soul of Matthew Stafford with Jared Goff, who has a brutal 63.5 QB rating vs. the Niners. The defense led the league in both points and yards allowed last year. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t hand the Lions a win, San Fran rolls by double figures. (Locked in at -7.5)
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NFL
Spread
Vikings over Bengals
Few teams disappointed like the 7-9 Vikings did, but on paper this is a very good team. One should argue this is a top-half team in run and pass, offense and defense. Minnesota has won four of its last five season openers, all by at least eight points. The exception was a 43-34 shootout with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bengals may be trending upward, but they’re not the Packers yet, with one of the bottom front lines on both sides of the ball. Lay just a FG while there’s still time. (Locked in at -3)
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NFL
Spread
Washington over Chargers
Loss
Washington
+1
Washington should be better offensively with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a more-experienced RB and TE combo that ranks top 10 in the NFL, and decent-enough receivers. The team also brings back the bulk of last season’s No. 1-ranked defense. I love Justin Herbert but consistency was not his strength. Austin Ekeler may not play, but even if he does he is a pass-catching back, and Washington was fourth in fewest receiving yards allowed to RBs. The 10 a.m. Pacific start time won’t help. (Locked in at +1)
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NCAAF
Spread
Air Force over Navy
Navy rushed for 337 yards in Week 1 – and lost by 42. Both these teams know how to run the ball (they combined for 687 yards of rushing in Week 1, and 111 yards passing), and each can slow opposing run games. But personnel-wise, Air Force has big advantages. It’s better than last season, and last season it beat Navy 40-7. (Locked in at -6)
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NCAAF
Spread
Notre Dame over Toledo
The Irish dominated the Seminoles in Tallahassee until letting their guard down in the fourth quarter and nearly blowing it. They still got the win and learned a lesson – no letting up. That’s not good news for an overmatched Toledo team, which didn’t learn much from a home beatdown of Norfolk State. The Rockets are a MAC contender, but this is a tough Week 2 game.
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MLB
Moneyline
Diamondbacks over Rangers
Loss
Diamondbacks
-154
If you believe in pitching splits, which I do, then Arizona is a great pick for today’s matinee. Luke Weaver is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in five home starts (not to mention a 0.80 WHIP), and his 2.14 ERA in day games is 3.5 runs lower than his night split. Rangers starter Kohei Arihara has a 7.84 ERA under the sun, and a 6.33 ERA overall in his last seven starts. Arizona’s offense managed just one run on Tuesday but is usually better than that, at home anyway. (Locked in at -154)
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MLB
Moneyline
Diamondbacks over Rangers
Loss
Diamondbacks
-160
Zac Gallen is 0-6 at home, with a 4.57 ERA and average allowed and WHIP splits that are worse at home, too. But the D’backs have been better hitting at home lately with a .770 OPS the last month. They get a good matchup here vs. Spencer Howard, who is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA since joining the Rangers in three starts. He hasn’t gotten out of the third inning. With each bullpen decidedly unexciting, the starter that goes longer has a big edge. That will be Arizona. (Locked in at -160)
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MLB
Run Line
Astros -1.5 over Mariners
Loss
Astros -1.5
+120
The Mariners blanked the Astros twice last week in Seattle. But now we’re back in Houston, where the offense comes alive. The Astros handled the Mariners 11-2 on Monday and face Logan Gilbert, who shut them down over five innings last week in Seattle but was torched for nine runs a few weeks ago here. The Mariners lineup is a lifetime .191 vs. Jake Odorizzi, and Seattle’s OPS ranks over 200 points below Houston’s home split. Loving these run line odds. (Locked in at +120)
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MLB
Moneyline
Royals over Orioles
Loss
Royals
-105
We’re backing Jackson Kowar, who is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA in four games this season. Why? Because the Orioles’ Alexander Wells is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts, and Baltimore’s bullpen is nearly three runs worse per game over the last month. The Over/Under of 10 runs is a little high for two teams averaging a combined 8.3 rpg lately, but since they’re equally mediocre, the pitching matchup gives KC an edge. (Locked in at -105)
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