Adam Thompson
@BookiesAdam
Performance
| Sport | Last 7 Days | Last 30 Days | Current Season | Past Season |
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6-4 (60%) | 40-32 (55.6%) | All Games: 106-86 (55.2%); Props: 62-50 +675 | 94-47 (66.7%), 22-8 L30 O/U (73.3%) |
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9-8 +42 2021 season | |||
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2-3 | |||
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1-0 (100%) | 13-2 (86.7%) | 62-38 Best Bets (62%) | 64.4% Best Bets in 2019, +5,321 on all NFL picks |
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67-54 L121 (+1041); 17-9 (+1420) WS Picks/Props | |||
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18-11 L29 (+794) |
About Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.
Adam Thompson's Picks
PAST PICKS
Nascar
NASCAR at Martinsville: Ryan Blaney, Top 3 (+225)
Martinsville offers a unique, half-mile, flat short track, with lots of braking and straightaways reaching just 800 feet in length. Not everyone knows how to race on a track like this, but Blaney does. He finished second in both Martinsville races last year and is driving strong, with four straight top 10 finishes.
Nascar
NASCAR at Martinsville: Matt DiBenedetto, Top 10 (+250)
DiBenedetto has exactly zero top 10 finishes through seven races in 2021. But he’s not far off; in each of his past four races he has finished between 11th and 16th. This is a unique track and DiBenedetto has improved a lot on it over his career. We’re getting good odds for him to continue what he has done.
Nascar
NASCAR at Martinsville: Martin Truex Jr, Top 5 (-118)
Truex has won two of the past three races on the track, and the one he didn’t win, he led 129 laps. He’s a horse for this course, and has a team to win it. Top 5 is a conservative projection, but the odds are solid and you never know who might get taken out in a wreck.
Nascar
NASCAR at Martinsville: Joey Logano (-112) over Denny Hamlin
Logano has only one win on this track but he has led 1,083 laps on the 0.526-mile oval so he’s near the front at the end more often than not. The engine used Saturday is the same used at Daytona and Phoenix, races where he finished second. Hamlin has 15 top-five finishes in 30 races at Martinsville but in 2020 he finished 11th and 24th.
NBA
Spread
Clippers over Rockets
The Rockets have become much less embarrassing lately, even beating the Mavericks in their last game. But they still only have two wins over the last two months and the healthy Clippers are too much. They just blasted the Suns by 10 and Trail Blazers by 17, and when the Clippers are rolling, they’re really rolling. All 13 of their wins since Feb. 20 have been by at least nine points, and by an average of 18 ppg. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in the second game of back-to-backs and Houston is without John Wall. (Locked in at -11)
MLB
Run Line
Dodgers over Nationals
Joe Ross makes his season debut for Washington after opting out of 2020. The previous three seasons he owned at 5-plus ERA in each, and his career ERA vs. these Dodgers over 16-plus innings is 7.02. And this is the best Dodgers lineup of the bunch. On the hill for L.A.: Walker Buehler. Juan Soto and Trea Turner, the Nationals’ two best hitters, are a combined .000 vs. Buehler. (Locked in at -133)
MLB
Moneyline
Yankees over Rays
Rich Hill got his 17th season started by lasting four innings against the Marlins. Now he’s facing a Yankees lineup that hasn’t broken out but certainly has the lineup to do so. Hill likely won’t last long and the Rays’ bullpen owns an 8.18 ERA. The Yankee bullpen has allowed three earned runs in 27 innings; Corey Kluber can go his five productive frames per usual and hand the ball off. (Locked in at -131)
NBA
Spread
Jazz over Trail Blazers
Win
Jazz
-5.5
The Jazz just lost an overtime showdown with the Suns last night, so they could come out a little flat here. But the game is at home, and their defensive strength – allowing by far the least amount of points via 3-pointers – is a perfect matchup against a Blazers team that lives and dies by the trey. The Blazers haven’t covered in four straight against teams with winning records. Utah is 22-2 at home, winning by an average of 15.7 ppg. (Locked in at -5.5)
NBA
Spread
Lakers over Heat
Win
Lakers
+8.5
The Lakers are obviously missing their key championship pieces, but they’ve also won four of six, get Andre Drummond back this evening and Ben McLemore makes his team debut. They have the physicality to deal with the Heat, who are on a 2-5 SU slide at home. (Locked in at +8.5)
Golf
The Masters: Collin Morikawa, Top 20
If you believe in rankings for top categories for the golf course, Morikawa is your guy. When it comes to Greens In Regulation, Fairways Hit and Par 4 Scoring – all key attributes for previous Masters champions – Morikawa ranks in the top 10 in all three. Golf is a trick sport, but if Morikawa plays as he should for 72 holes, he should be near the top at the end. (Locked in at +100)
Golf
The Masters: Webb Simpson, Top 20
Par 4 Scoring is important to success at Augusta, and Simpson ranks No. 2 on the entire tour in it. He finished 10th at The Masters last fall and was eighth at the U.S. Open, so Webb is learning how to play his top golf at the majors. The hasn’t teed off in nearly a month, but Simpson’s game fits well here. (Locked in at +125)
Golf
The Masters: Abraham Ancer, Top 30
Ancer has a game that fits the course well, it fits a lot of courses well. He hasn’t put it together that leads to wins, but Ancer has finished in the top 30 in three-straight tournaments, not counting the 13th at The Masters in fall. He’s made the cut in 11 of 13 tournaments and ended up at least 28th in 69% of them. (Locked in at +110)
Golf
The Masters: Corey Conners (-120) over Adam Scott
Scott has made the cut in all 10 tournaments he’s played so far, but he’s seemed content with that. Seven of the 10 events he’s taken 32nd or worse. Scott typically shows up for The Masters but his game these days isn’t impressive. Conners has finished top 10 five times this season and no worse than 14th in three straight. He took 10th at Augusta in fall.
Golf
The Masters: Collin Morikawa (-175) over Lee Westwood
Morikawa has the game suited for this course; this should be his breakout moment. He finished a pedestrian 44th here last fall but has since finished seventh or better in half the tournaments he’s played. Westwood had two-straight runner-up finishes in his last three but the strengths needed for this course haven’t been his strengths in 2021. His tour ranks in Par 4 Scoring, GIR and Fairway Accuracy are all outside the top 150.
NBA
Spread
Suns over Jazz
Win
Suns
+2
The Suns beat the Jazz in Utah by 11 on New Year’s Eve, and Phoenix has been one of the best home bets in the NBA. It’s won six in a row overall and is 17-9 ATS at home, 7-2 ATS as a rare underdog and 12-2 ATS against the best (> .550 win percentage). Phoenix can do more than hang here. (Locked in at +2)
NBA
Spread
Knicks over Celtics
Win
Knicks
+3
The Celtics and Knicks haven’t beaten many good teams in the last month. The difference is, New York squanders leads, Boston can’t get that far. Now the Celtics are without Tristan Thompson yet again, Evan Fournier is also out and Kemba Walker is sitting for rest. The Celtics have dropped six of their last seven with Kemba doesn’t play, every defeat by at least five (the lone win was vs. OKC). The Knicks beat the Celtics by 30 in their last meeting, and that was with Walker and Thompson. (Locked in at +3)
MLB
Moneyline
Dodgers over Athletics
Loss
Dodgers
-165
The A’s will get better this season, but through a week of the MLB season it’s not going good. And the Dodgers aren’t a good team to find a rhythm against. L.A. averages 4.5 more runs per game than Oakland, and allows four fewer. Trevor Bauer was masterful for six innings in his opener before things got away from him in the seventh; it was a live-and-learn moment. Jesus Lazardo didn’t throw well his first outing, has a 9.00 ERA vs. the Dodgers, and L.A. has hit lefties hard the last two seasons. (Locked in at -165)
MLB
Moneyline
Blue Jays over Rangers
Loss
Blue Jays
-182
Hyun-Jin Ryu looked the part in shutting down the Yankees on Opening Day. He’s backed by an offense that limits strikeouts and scores runs, a bad combo for Rangers starter Kyle Gibson, who couldn’t get out of the first inning vs. the Royals in his opener. Bullpens are a factor, too: Toronto’s ranks fifth, Texas’ is 28th. Texas was among the poorest teams in MLB in hitting left-handers, and picked up where it left off this season. (Locked in at -182)
MLB
Total Runs
Rays-Red Sox Over 9
Win
Over
9
The Rays’ bullpen blew it on Tuesday – twice, actually. It now ranks dead-last among all bullpens. Considering how manager Kevin Nash is notorious for pulling starters sooner than most, that’s been a bad thing. Ryan Yarbrough went 5.2 innings of shutout ball is opener but didn’t get the win. He goes again here against a team that’s struggled vs. LHPs – but not Yarbrough. The Sox lineup is an astounding .413 in 75 at-bats against him. Nathan Eovaldi has career 5.48 ERA vs. the Rays in eight starts.
MLB
Moneyline
Braves over Nationals
Win
Braves
-172
The Braves offense hasn’t gotten going at all yet, but Wednesday presents an opportunity. The undermanned Nats playing in a doubleheader, they need Erick Fedde to stay on the mound. One problem: The Braves have annihilated Fedde the last two years. In four starts, he’s allowed 20 runs in 14.1 innings, with 13 walks. If Atlanta can’t bounce back here, that’s a problem. Max Fried wasn’t sharp on Opening Day but his 7-0, 2.25 ERA 2020 season shows he can bounce back, too. (Locked in at -172)
NBA
Spread
Pistons over Nuggets
Push
Pistons
+15
The Pistons have the worst record in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve only been outscored an average of 3.5 ppg – better than seven other teams. Their last three defeats were all by 14-plus which is concerning. But they rolled the Thunder last night and are 7-3 ATS in the second games of back to backs. The Nuggets are loaded and have won 14 of 17 games, but only one of their last seven victories was by more than 13 points. (Locked in at +15)
NBA
Spread
Hawks over Pelicans
Win
Hawks
-3
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram have missed the last three games and it’s unclear if they’ll return for this one. The Pelicans were without both last Friday when the Hawks annihilated them by 23 in New Orleans without Trae Young. Young will play but the Hawks have their own issues with John Collins and De’Andre Hunter out, and Clint Capela a gametime decision. Atlanta gets up for home games, and Young can lead the way. (Locked in at -3)
NBA
Spread
Celtics over 76ers
Loss
Celtics
+2
The Sixers handled the Celtics by 12 in back-to-back games in Philly in January, but Boston is a far better team at home, and Philly is far worse on the road. The Celtics typically fare well vs. the Sixers, winning 14 of the last 19 games (including playoffs) when Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum both play, including the last five, regardless of location. (Locked in at +2)
MLB
Moneyline
Rays over Red Sox
Loss
Rays
-148
Boston scored 11 runs on Monday after managing five runs the first three games combined. Expect Tuesday to be a little tougher. Tyler Glasnow has had his issues with Sox hitters, but he was dominant in the opener (one hit over six innings) and Rays batters should get to Martin Perez, his Boston counterpart, who owns a 5.46 ERA at Fenway. Tampa ranked sixth in OPS vs. lefties last year. (Locked in at -148)
MLB
Moneyline
Phillies over Mets
Loss
Phillies
+114
The Mets blew Monday’s season opener by pulling a dominant Jacob deGrom and exposing a bad bullpen. Marcus Strotman was a disappointment for the Mets in 2019 and didn’t throw at all in 2020, so the ‘pen will be used even more here. Chase Anderson is Philly’s No. 5 starter but he’s had been strong vs. the Mets in his career, owning a .218 average allowed. The team’s defense and relievers can keep them in it. (Locked in at +114)
MLB
Run Line
Yankees over Orioles
Win
Yankees -1.5
-138
The Yankees made short work of the O’s on Monday with their No. 4 starter. Now they’re back to the top of the rotation with Gerrit Cole. Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer who had a near-5 ERA in four starts last year and an above-6 ERA this spring. The best Orioles hitter vs. Cole with more than six career at-bats is Freddy Galvis. He’s .182 (2-for-11). We’ll spot Baltimore a run to lower the odds. (Locked in at -138)
MLB
Moneyline
Rays over Red Sox
Loss
Rays
-105
I saw enough of the Red Sox to know that backing them is going to be a scarcity. It won’t happen here against a Rays squad that showed a mixed bag in its first series, scoring between 1-7 and allowing 0-12. Michael Wacha, however, had a great spring and has held Sox hitters to 5-of-28 (.179) hitting off him. The Red Sox scored five runs in three games in getting swept out of Fenway by the Orioles to open the year. Nick Pivetta struck out 11 in 13 spring innings, but also allowed nine runs – and the Rays strike out at a low rate. (Locked in at -105)
MLB
Moneyline
Mets over Phillies
Loss
Mets
-200
Jacob deGrom and the Mets make their season debut against a Phillies team that just held the Braves to three runs in a three-game sweep. But its offense didn’t manage much, and deGrom is as good as it gets. He’s also matching up against Philadelphia’s No. 4 starter. The Mets’ offense should have a lot of pop against Matt Moore, who is playing for his sixth team in five seasons after not throwing in 2020. (Locked in at -200)
NBA
Spread
Nets over Knicks
Loss
Nets
-5.5
Kyrie Irving will play, with Kevin Durant and James Harden as gametime decisions. They need to begin showing consistency, and here at home against a defense-first challenge of the Knicks should be a motivating spot to start. We’re banking on at least two of the Big Three to show up. The Knicks are 1-3 since losing big man Mitchell Robinson, and the win was vs. the Pistons. (Locked in at -5.5)
NBA
Spread
Raptors over Wizards
Loss
Raptors
-5
The Raptors beat the Wizards by 22 earlier this season and that was with a fully healthy Bradley Beal and Rui Hachimura. Both are GTD for this one for Washington, which has lost three straight all by 10-plus points. Toronto hasn’t been much better, but Kyle Lowry is out and that’s brought the team together in the past. The Raptors are 9-2 when he doesn’t suit up. All but one of those wins was by at least five points. (Locked in at -5)
MLB
Moneyline
Yankees over Orioles
Win
Yankees
-210
The O’s swept the Red Sox at Fenway, but that’s more an indictment on how bad Boston is going to be. Now they head to the Bronx where Aaron Judge and Co. look to bounce back from a 1-2 opening series. Jordan Montgomery is underrated but needs to prove it here. He should getting offensive help from the offense against Jorge Lopez, who had a 6.34 ERA last year as a starter and was especially miserable on the road (12.46 ERA, .386 average). (Locked in at -210)
MLB
Moneyline
Royals over Indians
Win
Royals
+115
If you thought Kansas City would be MLB’s highest-scoring team through the opening four days of the season, kudos. It next faces Indians hurler Logan Allen, who posted a 0.64 ERA in spring. Allen had a massive preseason, but his two-year career in games that count isn’t as good, including a lifetime .320 average allowed and hefty 1.77 WHIP. Veteran Danny Duffy has been better in day games than night the last two seasons and can corral an Indians offense that doesn’t strike out much but was held to two runs in two of its games at Detroit over the weekend. (Locked in at +115)
MLB
Total Runs
White Sox-Angels Under
Loss
Under
9.5
These teams have combined for totals of 7, 20 and 8 so far, but this pitching matchups doesn’t favor any hitters. Shohei Ohtani looked his star self, hitting 102 mph on the gun, and is finally healthy. Dylan Cease posted a 0.77 ERA in 11.2 innings in spring. Neither bullpen has allowed a run yet. Runs should be at a premium here. (Locked in at 9.5)
NBA
Spread
76ers over Grizzlies
Loss
76ers
-3
We can’t assume Joel Embiid will play here – the Sixers always deal with their star with kid gloves. But without him, the team went 7-3, the only losses at the Nuggets and Clippers and home vs. the Bucks. Overall, they’re 11-4 ATS when laying five points or fewer. Memphis is on a 5-3 SU run, with all three losses to the Jazz. But it hasn’t covered in Philly since 2016. (Locked in at -3)
MLB
Moneyline
Orioles over Red Sox
Win
Orioles
+160
The O’s have two wins already at Fenway, and should be the underdog here again as Garrett Richards makes his debut for the Sox. But Richards is 0-4 with a 5.46 ERA vs. Baltimore all-time, and has been worse in home games five years running, regardless of which team he’s playing for. Bruce Zimmermann has a high ERA in minimal MLB action, but his average allowed and WHIP are very low. It doesn’t hurt the Red Sox haven’t shown any pop and are a paltry 1-of-25 off left-handers this season following a just-as-poor spring training vs. LHPs. (Locked in at +160)
MLB
Moneyline
White Sox over Angels
Loss
White Sox
-120
Alex Cobb gets a second chance in L.A. after three rough seasons in Baltimore, but the overhaul in his mechanics he worked on this off-season may take more than a game. Chicago’s offense is legit, and it’s had major success vs. Cobb, who is 0-3 with a 13.89 ERA against it in three starts. Lance Lynn will be a workhouse for the Sox, and he can start his tenure strong vs. a lineup that’s .194 off him lifetime. (Locked in at -120)
NBA
Spread
Mavericks over Wizards
Win
Mavericks
-6
After gutting out a 12-point win over the Knicks and their top-ranked defense, they head down the highway to face the NBA’s worst-ranked defense. Dallas has won three straight and has covered in five of six on the road. The Wizards are back to their struggling ways; they just lost by 21 to the Pistons prior to that by 10 to the Hornets. Bradley Beal is a gametime decision and there’s little reason to rush him back. (Locked in at -6)
MLB
Moneyline
Astros over Athletics
Win
Astros
-128
Houston blasted Oakland in the first two games of this series, but this third game has the biggest pitching advantage for the Astros. Lance McCullers was dominant for most of last season and just inked an $85 million deal last week. Counterpart Cole Irvin is the A’s No. 5 starter, moved up here due to injury. He has three career starts in 19 appearances and a 6.75 ERA. (Locked in at -128)
MLB
Moneyline
Cubs over Pirates
Win
Cubs
-162
Jake Arrieta loves Wrigley from his dominant time in Chicago. He wasn’t as good in Philly but now he’s back and facing a Pirates team without much punch, aside from rookie Ke’Bryan Hayes. Chicago had just two hits in its opener but the conditions today are more conducive for bats. (Locked in at -162)
MLB
Moneyline
Red Sox over Orioles
Loss
Red Sox
-160
Tanner Houck was electric in the second half of last season for the Sox. His command was an issue in spring training and Boston got blanked in its season opener. But Matt Harvey is throwing on the other side. He went 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA last year and posted a 7.09 ERA the year before. If Boston’s offense can’t bounce back here, that’s a bad sign. You won’t get many chances to fade Harvey at anything under -200. (Locked in at -160)
MLB
Moneyline
Yankees over Blue Jays
Win
Yankees
-160
Corey Kluber returns after tossing just one inning last year before getting injured. He was a two-time Cy Young pitcher for Cleveland and has dominated at Yankee Stadium. Ross Stripling, on the other hand, posted a 5.84 ERA last year. Each offense has potential, but a healthy Yankees lineup is lethal. Back them now before injuries set in, or prices go up. (Locked in at -160)
NBA
Spread
Nets over Hornets
Win
Nets
-2
The Hornets are playing well right now, having won four of five. But none of those wins were against above-.500 teams; in fact, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Feb. 23. The Nets have been winning but not covering, on a 1-5 ATS slide. The non-covers as the favorite were at -7 or higher. They won’t have James Harden (or KD, per usual), but the last time Kyrie Irving was the lone Big Three on the court for the Nets, they beat the Jazz by 34. Charlotte has allowed 6.9 ppg more on the road than at home. (Locked in at -2)
MLB
Moneyline
Marlins over Rays
Loss
Marlins
+137
Sandy Alcantara was as good as they come to end 2020 including a shutdown of the Rays in his final start against them. Tyler Glasnow is better, but the value is on a Miami side that had a good Spring Training. Tampa’s relievers showed a lot of issues in March and their batting order is already banged up. There won’t be a DH in the NL stadium, another boost to the Marlins. (Locked in at +137)
MLB
Moneyline
Rockies over Dodgers
Win
Rockies
+195
Clayton Kershaw is a GOAT, but he also had an Opening Day ERA north of 10. The four Rockies who have faced Kershaw at least 10 times – Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Chris Owings, Garrett Hampson – are all at least .300 against him. The Rockies can have hope in that and in the arm of German Marquez, one of the few pitchers out there who has corralled the Dodgers with a 2.54 ERA in nine games with a .238 average allowed. (Locked in at +195)
MLB
Moneyline
Reds over Cardinals
Loss
Reds
-110
Luis Castillo tossed a two-hitter on the road when he last faced the Cardinals. But he was literally twice the pitcher at home; he posted 2.05 ERA at Great American Ballpark compared to 4.12 away from it. The Cardinals offense adds Nolan Arenado, but it was also a unit that average a full half-run less on the road in 2020. Jack Flaherty is expected to have a bounce-back after a rough 2020, but his velocity was down a few ticks in Spring Training. (Locked in at -110)
MLB
Total Runs
Rangers-Royals Under 9.5
Loss
Under 9.5
-118
These two teams possessed bottom-five offenses a year ago and didn’t make massive headway. Each throws a pitcher on Thursday that has reason to be confident. KC’s Brad Keller owned a 2.47 ERA in nine starts season and allowed just two hits over seven innings last Opening Day. Texas’ Kyle Gibson wasn’t that solid but he was vs. the Royals, including a .220 average allowed. (Locked in at -118)
MLB
Moneyline
Indians over Tigers
Loss
Indians
-185
Shane Bieber won the AL Cy Young Award last year, and he started it by fanning 14 over six innings on Opening Day. In other words, he’ll be ready. He faces a Tigers lineup that is batting .160 off him lifetime. Tigers counterpart Matthew Boyd has had a solid spring, but he also had the MLB’s highest ERA and HRs allowed last season. Cleveland’s offense isn’t otherworldly, but it’s better than Detroit’s. (Locked in at -185)
Golf
PGA Valero Open: Brice Garnett, Top 20 (+300)/Top 40 (+138)
Garnett has made the cut only 62.5% of the tournaments he’s played in. But he’s picked up his game lately, with two top 10s and a 25th in the last four. He has certain strengths and when a course fit it, he’s been on. TPC San Antonio, with its putting challenges and potentially disastrous rough, is included. Garnett ranks 15th in putting and eighth in fairways hit.
Golf
PGA Valero Open: Corey Conners, Top 20 (+100)
Conners won this tournament two years ago with a course record -20, so he knows this course. He’s also been playing well, with five top 10s and nine finishes in the top 25. He golfs how he usually does, and the added confidence and experience at TPC San Antonio should only help.
Golf
PGA Valero Open: Zach Johnson, Top 40 (-136)
Johnson has finished in the top 20 in three of his seven trips to this tournament, including a fifth place the last time out. He’s made the cut in all 12 tournaments he’s played in this season, finishing 51st or better in all but two. This course suits his game – he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 30th in Greens In Regulation – so a usual cut made should result in another top 40.
Golf
PGA Valero Open: Abraham Ancer (-103) over Hideki Matsuyama
Ancer is the best on the tour in hitting fairways, historically a key component to success at the Valero Open. His Greens In Regulation ranking of 11th proves he doesn’t make mistakes until the green, where his issues have been. But while Ancer ranks a pedestrian 111th in Strokes Gained: Putting, Matsuyama ranks 170th, and he’s been way worse at keeping the ball straight off the tee. Ancer has been playing better lately, too.
NBA
Spread
Pistons over Trail Blazers
Loss
Pistons
+7.5
The Blazers are a perfect 3-0 on their road trip, but all three games were close. Detroit just pounded Toronto by 14, a team Portland edged by five in its last game. The Pistons play teams close, they have all season, and are on a 9-1 ATS run when getting more than five points. The Blazers play teams too close for being a 28-18 squad; they actually allow more points than they score. (Locked in at +8)
NBA
Spread
Wizards over Hornets
Loss
Wizards
+3.5
Bradley Beal is a game time decision, so backing Washington early is a risk. But he didn’t play on Monday and the streaky Wizards are trending upward, covering in four of six. They were impressive in an eight-point win over the Pacers on Monday and are 8-3 ATS in the second game of back-to-backs. The last three instances were covers vs. the Jazz, Bucks and Celtics. Charlotte has won three of four but it’s been sketchy, especially on the road, with a narrow win over the Spurs following three blowout losses. (Locked in at +3.5)
NBA
Over/Under
Raptors-Pistons Over
Win
Over
213.5
Neither of these teams are winning much, but at least they’re scoring. Toronto has just one win in the last month but five of its past six games have hit at least 216 points, and four of six at least 221. The Pistons have dropped four in a row, with two of the games under 200 but the other two at 224 and 228. The Over has been huge in Raptors road games, and it has hit both times these teams have met, with totals of 228 (less than two weeks ago) and 234 (also in March). (Locked in at 213.5)
NBA
Spread
Celtics over Pelicans
Loss
Celtics
-2
The Pelicans beat the Celtics earlier this season, but it was in OT, in New Orleans (Boston is a terrible road cover) and Marcus Smart didn’t play. Now it’s in Boston, Smart will play, and so will Evan Fournier. The Celtics beat the Bucks in Milwaukee and wiped out the Thunder in OKC, so they’re brimming with confidence upon their return home. Jaylen Brown won’t play but Fournier can pick up the slack. Boston is 2-1 when Brown sits. (Locked in at -2)
Nascar
NASCAR at Bristol: Austin Dillon, To Win/Top 3/Top10
Kyle Larson is the favorite for good reason, but Austin Dillon presents the most value on the board. Both drivers took part in the Bristol Dirt Nationals last week to prep for this race. Dillon got three victories. He has impressive dirt track history. He should be brimming with confidence. (To Win: +1200; Top 3: +375; Top 10: -125)
Nascar
NASCAR at Bristol: Kyle Larson, Top 3
Barring crashing out, Larson is going to be near the front in the end, if not leading, in the dirt race at Bristol. He’s +250 to win which is astonishingly low in a race with 250 chaotic laps on a surface many of these drivers won’t be used to (the probability of crashes is high). Not to mention, nobody under +1000 has won yet in 2021. Larson knows what he’s doing on the surface more than most. He’s also racing very well, with five top-10 finishes and three at fourth or better in six rides. (Top 3: -122)
Nascar
NASCAR at Bristol: Chase Briscoe, Top 10
Briscoe hasn’t finished higher than 18th in any race this season, but he has finished above his starting spot in all but one event. Also, dirt racing was what he grew up on – and attracted the big-time NASCAR teams. Briscoe has nine wins in the Xfinity Series; this could be his coming out party at the top level, but we’ll be happy with his first Cup Series finish in the top 10. (Top 10: -118)
Nascar
NASCAR at Bristol: Ricky Stenhouse, Top 10
Ricky Stenhouse hasn’t made a huge dent on the circuit in 2021 but he has finished between 11th-13th in all of the last four races, and never outside the top 20. And Stenhouse has a dirt track background. He hasn’t been far off a top 10 finish and should be ultra-motivated to get there at Bristol. (Top 10: +110)
