Adam Thompson

Zach Eflin has at times looked the part, but not often on the road where he’s 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA. Same goes for the Phillies offense, which hasn’t shown up enough on the road either. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are among the leaders in home hitting and hitting off RHPs, and starter Julio Urias leads the league in wins. (Locked in at -170)

Eduardo Rodriguez has fallen off a cliff, going 0-4 with an 8.49 ERA his last six starts. The Braves offense owns a .748 OPS vs. LHPs and is one of the top home-hitting teams in MLB. Boston is above average on the road but only average vs. LHPs, and Tucker Davidson is proving to be a tough one. He’s allowed no runs on five hits over his last 11.2 innings. (Locked in at -109)

The Indians’ offense isn’t good, but it’s averaging 5.1 rpg over the past 15 days. Baltimore ranks dead-last in hitting vs. right-handed pitching and is averaging a horrid 3.5 rpg on the road. Cleveland is going with a bullpen game; the unit owns a 3.23 ERA this season. Baltimore is going with Matt Harvey. Harvey owns an 11.79 ERA over his last seven starts and his games have unintentionally become bullpen games as he hasn’t lasted more than three innings in four of his last five. (Locked in at -160)

The Yankees offense just hasn’t been playing well lately, or at all on the road. The Blue Jays? They’re raking, averaging 5.6 runs at home all year and 5.1 rpg the past two weeks overall, with a top five OPS in both instances. Neither starter has been throwing their best lately, but Hyun Jin Ryu has corralled the Yankees twice this season and has been far more effective at home, while Jordan Montgomery struggled vs. Toronto and has been far worse on the road. (Locked in at -115)

Walker Buehler is throwing – he hasn’t lost a start since 2019 – and he’s throwing vs. a Pirates team that ranks dead-last in hitting RHPs. L.A., meanwhile is averaging 5.8 rpg over the past two weeks. J.T. Brubaker shut down the Rockies last time out but was drilled by the Braves the time before that. The deck is stacked against him here. (Locked in at -190)

Looking for a flyer? Here’s one. Dylan Bundy just got his first win after posting a 9.70 ERA in May. Oakland has bats but Bundy has been great vs. it – the A's lineup is a combined 26-of-127 off him (.205). Oakland starter Sean Manaea has been among the best pitchers in the game the past month, including two shutdown performances vs. these Angels. But L.A. is averaging 6.4 rpg the past two weeks with an .845 OPS. The third time could be the charm for the Angels. (Locked in at +135)

Detroit starter Matthew Boyd has already faced the Royals three times, this will be the fourth. The first two went stellar (14 innings, zero runs), the last one not as much (five innings, five runs). He’s allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts, the lone exception vs. the struggling Mariners. And historically this Royals lineup has hit Boyd hard, to the tune of a .325 average and seven HRs over a huge 237 at-bat sample size. Brad Keller hasn’t been sharp for KC but he held Detroit to two runs in one of his top starts. (Locked in at -140)

Joel Embiid surely will play tonight, and he’s been an unstoppable force for the Sixers. But other injuries are piling up as well, and the Hawks, who have been among the best teams in the NBA the past two-plus months, are in must-win mode. Clint Capela and John Collins are each due for bigger games, and the Sixers were on a 0-6 ATS run in Atlanta before Game 3. Hawks bounce back at home here. (Locked in at +3.5)

Alek Manoah bounced back from his first rough outing to shut down the White Sox over five innings. His finest form has been on the road, with a 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in two games. Nathan Eovaldi, meanwhile, has been way better on the road including an ERA that’s more than twice as high at home. Boston’s bullpen is floundering with a 5.73 ERA the past 15 days. The Blue Jays are MLB’s No. 1-hitting team vs. right-handed pitching and are averaging 5.5 rpg over the past two weeks with an .858 OPS in that span. (Locked in at +120)

Busch won the last stop here, in October for the NASCAR Playoffs, and he wasn’t even part of the postseason. He took fourth in July 2020 as well and has more wins on this track than anyone else. When it comes to top 5’s, he has 14 of them in 30 starts, and he’s been top five in the last two races, not counting a win at Kansas on a track and using an engine similar to this Sunday.

Hamlin has three wins at Texas and won the All-Star Race at Charlotte six years ago, at a track similar to Texas. He’s still looking for win No. 1 in 2021 but when it comes to top 10s, he’s done that 75% of the time, including four of the last five. This seems like a good spot to take the season to a new level.

Tony Santillan makes his MLB debut on the hill for the Reds. He’s been fine in Triple A Louisville, but this one is about what the Reds offense should do, and how horrible the Rockies are on the road. Cincy is averaging 5.9 rpg at Great American Ballpark with a big .823 OPS, compared to the 2.6/.538 road splits of Colorado. The Reds are also among the best on Sunday day games averaging 6.0 rpg. Antonio Senzatela is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. (Locked in at +123)

Atlanta has two things going for it here. Lefty Drew Smyly has been a disappointment overall, but his road ERA and his daytime ERA marks are nearly three runs lower than their home/night splits. Miami is among the worst teams at hitting LHPs and they are absolutely the worst Sunday day game team, averaging 2.3 rpg on the year (.514 OPS). Miami starter Pablo Lopez has been tough at home but his worst start all year was a four-inning, six-run dud vs. these Braves. (Locked in at +120)

It’s a seven-inning DH, so starting pitchers have even more clout. So we’ll back Kevin Gausman, who is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and has gone at least six innings in all but one start. On the road he’s even more ridiculous, 5-0 with a 0.71 ERA. San Fran’s offense is averaging 2.2 more runs per game over the past two-plus weeks. Erick Fedde has been a 7.56 ERA disaster for the Nats. (Locked in at -152)

The Jazz rallied from 17 down to win Game 1 and push the three-point spread. I don’t envision the Jazz going down 17 again in Game 2, especially at home. Mike Conley may return here which adds another boost. More simply, if the under-the-radar, top-seeded Jazz are only laying three points at home, a team that had a points differential of +12.5 there all season, it’s worth something. (Locked in at -3)

Zack Greinke tossed a complete game, one-run gem vs. a strong Blue Jays lineup. He heads to Fenway to face a Red Sox team that owns a .651 OPS over the past two-plus weeks – 200 points lower than the Astros’ mark. Houston also ranks No. 1 in MLB in road scoring (5.5 rpg) and hitting (.784 OPS) and is No. 2 vs. LHPs (.808 OPS). Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 7.92 ERA over his last five starts. All this for even money. (Locked in at +100)

Trevor Rogers won the NL Rookie of the Month award in both April and May. He started June with a gem, and he’s back home here where he hasn’t allowed a home run and owns a 1.71 ERA. The Rockies have hit lefties well, but they haven’t hit anyone well on the road, a stunning .565 OPS and just 2.5 rpg, both dead-last in baseball. Chi Chi Gonzalez returns to the rotation due to injury but he’s 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA on the road. Colorado’s bullpen is brutal. (Locked in at +100)

Yes we’re fading Max Scherzer, at home, which often doesn’t work. But the Nationals offense isn’t working right now, and the Giants are blasting, averaging 5.7 rpg with an .809 OPS the past 15 days, compared to a 3.3 rpg clip for Washington. Anthony DeSclafani had a forgettable May (5.58 ERA) after a strong April (1.50 ERA) but got back on track last start. He’s had success vs. the Nats and the San Fran bullpen, with its 0.95 WHIP the past two weeks, has been locked in. (Locked in at +160)

Julio Urias was shelled in his last outing, but this is a good spot for a rebound. The Pirates rank dead-last in hitting vs. left-handed pitching and Urias himself owns a 0.73 road WHIP. The Dodgers offense has been locked in lately, which is bad news for Mitch Keller, who only lasted two innings in his one start off the Covid list, and has been especially bad at home (7.96 ERA, 2.04 WHIP). (Locked in at -125)

Koepka and Dustin Johnson are the strong favorites to win here, but the edge goes to Koepka. On a relatively unknown course for these players, and one with considerable sand hazards and ultra-tricky greens, it is Koepka – who ranks 28th in putting and No. 2 in sand play – that gets the edge there. His overall game propels him to the top of a relatively weak field.

There is only one player that ranks in the top 30 in Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Around the Tee and Sand Save Percentage. It’s Poulter, a player who took third two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab but hadn’t been top 20 before that since a February event in Saudi Arabia. Now is the time, with a beatable field and a course that suits not just his game but his veteran savvy.

Casey Mize has the makings of a future star, and now he’s starting to show it. After posting a 5.06 ERA in April, he was 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in June and went seven innings vs. a solid White Sox team his last time out; three solo HRs doomed him. Seattle starter Chris Flexen is either great or terrible. His 8.10 road ERA allows us to back the latter. (Locked in at -130)

Matt Harvey gets the nod, which usually means fade the O’s, with his 6.62 ERA and their struggling bullpen. That he’s going against Taijuan Walker, who shut down Baltimore for one run over seven innings and owns a .181 average allowed and 1.06 ERA this season, makes it even better. Each offense is ranked in the top five in OPS the last 15 days, but if one is coming back down to reality tonight, it’s Baltimore’s. (Locked in at -125)

It’s superstars vs. team ball, and L.A. vs. SLC, so the Clippers are getting the notices and attention. But Utah is the No. 1 seed for a reason, its scoring margin was by far the best in the NBA, and its home results (31-5, +12.5 ppg margin) are insane. The Clippers needed seven grueling games to get past a Mavericks team that didn’t play that well overall. Utah comes in rested.

Jordan Montgomery looked solid in a win over the Rays last time out, but the Twins are starting to rip the ball, and have all season vs. lefties, and Monty’s road ERA (5.70) is more than double his mark at home. The Yankees haven’t hit anyone lately (2.6 rpg the past two weeks) and Michael Pineda owns 2.62 ERA, .194 average allowed and 0.90 WHIP home splits. (Locked in at +100)

Each team starts a left-handed pitcher, and that is a big edge for the Sox, who rank No. 1 in OPS vs. LHPs (.826). Robbie Ray has allowed 3-4 runs in four of his last five starts. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon owns a miniscule 0.55 WHIP at home, and the Blue Jays are averaging nearly 1.5 runs fewer on the road. Each thrower could go 6-7 innings, but the Sox bullpen (1.04 WHIP the past 15 days) has been far better lately than its Toronto counterpart. (Locked in at -140)

The Hawks blitzed the Sixers in Game 1 then had to hold on at the end for the upset victory, so I can see how the line has been shifting toward Philly. But Clint Capela had a bad game, a hobbled Joel Embiid went off for 39 points, and Atlanta still won. De’Andre Hunter may also return for the Hawks, who have the NBA’s best record over the last two months. One caveat, all of the Hawks’ last 10 losses have been by more than six points. (Locked in at +6)

Ryan Weathers has been a tough one for the Padres, but the Cubs are hitting lefties well and Weathers has been limited to four innings in all but one appearance. San Diego’s bullpen has trended downward the last two weeks. Chicago’s offense has an OPS 110 points higher than San Diego’s over the last 15 days, and Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay owns a .193 average allowed and 0.78 WHIP on the road. Alzolay’s issue has been HRs allowed but even the Padres aren’t hitting many out in their home park. (Locked in at +115)

Jackson Kowar makes his anticipated debut for Kansas City. He was 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in Triple-A. The Angels are a tough first game, but the Royals are averaging 5.5 rpg over the past two weeks so run support should be there – especially so against the struggling Dylan Bundy, who has built a 12.33 ERA over his last four starts. (Locked in at +140)

The Bucks were terrible on 3’s, but that was an anomaly. They ranked No. 6 in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage and the Nets rank 20th in points on 3’s allowed. James Harden was the one player that was tough for the Bucks to account for; his absence opens the door for a motivated Milwaukee team to get one in Brooklyn. (Locked in at +1.5)

The Marlins decided to give Pablo Lopez an extra day of rest and are starting Zach Thompson in his MLB debut. The Sox are averaging 5.2 rpg with a .780 OPS at Fenway Park. Barring a few subpar efforts, Nick Pivetta has allowed a consistent 2-3 runs through six innings. Miami is scoring just 3.3 rpg the past two-plus weeks. (Locked in at -148)

Martin Truex Jr. has won the last two races on this track and has three victories here overall. He’s due to get back on course, too. He has three wins in 15 races - more than any other driver in this topsy-turvy season - but has finished 19th or worse in three straight. He’s due, and this is the perfect spot for it.

Busch has only one win this season, but he’s finished top 10 in more than half the races, including four of the top five. He’s actually finished third or better in three of five, and has past success on road races, including four wins at this level. With the odds set as they are, we’ll take the middle ground for the best value.

Game 4 gave us 187 points, Game 6 had only 201 (a 39-point second quarter doomed the Over). The other four games each had over 216 and averaged 230. So which way does this way trend? The Under has been a Clippers mainstay, but consider this amazing Game 7 stat: The last 11 Game 7’s in the NBA have all finished Under 208 points and have averaged a scant 187.6. It’s when we see all-out defensive battles to the finish. (Locked in at 210)

Miami’s offense has really struggled lately, averaging 3.4 rpg the last two weeks. In day games it’s been a debacle, just 2.7 rpg with a .572 OPS, both easily the worst in the league. Chad Kuhl has been an utter first-inning disaster (18.00 ERA) but the Marlins have only 16 first-inning runs in 57 games. Sandy Alcantara has been solid for the Marlins but his 5.40 road ERA is three-plus runs higher than his home split, and this Pirates roster is .400 (12-of-30) off him. (Locked in at +118)

The Hawks are better than the No. 5 seed they’ve settled on. It all changed when the team fired head coach Lloyd Pierce and replaced him with Nate McMillan. Since then, Atlanta is 27-11, a .710 win rate that would make them a No. 1 seed in the East over a full season. The question marks surrounding Joel Embiid can’t be ignored. The All-Star missed 21 games in the regular season. Philadelphia went 10-11 in those games, but against playoff teams that mark was just 3-8. Hawks +155 is a good price for a team that’s played as well as any over the last two-plus months.

Kyle Freeland hasn’t gone more than four innings in his two starts since coming off the IL, and neither went particularly well. But here is a good spot to find the form. This A’s lineup is a lifetime 2-for-21 (.095) off the lefty. Colorado’s offense is hitting .783 OPS vs. LHPs and Oakland starter Cole Irvin has allowed at least four runs in three consecutive starts. (Locked in at +120)

The Bucks went 2-1 in the season series but Brooklyn never had all of its Big Three out there. That said, this Milwaukee team has the best pieces to keep at least two of them in check, and the Nets have zero players that can handle Giannis (he averages 37 ppg in the three games). Milwaukee’s momentum and rest advantage after sweeping the Heat give it the opportunity to pull out a Game 1 surprise. (Locked in at +4)

#2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY (2-1 to win) has won five of six career races – the lone exception was the Kentucky Derby, in which he took fourth after a terrible start. The horse was considered the cream of the crop in spring and will be in all the marquee races the rest of the year. This is the shot to win a Triple Crown race, and he got the perfect post position (No. 2) for his style. Meanwhile, how good should #4 HOT ROD CHARLIE (7-2) be? Jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Rombauer to the Preakness Stakes win, has elected to instead ride this horse at the Belmont. Charlie should be rested after skipping the Preakness. He took third at the Derby and won the G2 Louisiana Derby by nearly 10 lengths. Then there’s #3 ROMBAUER (3-1), who won the Preakness and now has legendary jockey John Velazquez on board. But he couldn’t keep up with Essential Quality despite a shorter trip at the Blue Grass Stakes. PICKS: To Win: Essential Quality; Exacta: 2 with 3,4; Exacta 3 with 2,4

After going 1-1 with a 7.25 ERA in five April starts, Rich Hill was 3-1 with a 0.78 ERA in June. The Rays offense can do the rest. They’ve scored six runs per game on the road all year, 5.4 runs the past two weeks overall and 5.4 rpg in day games. Texas’ splits in those same categories are way, way lower. Spot starter Colby Allard likely won’t go more than 3-4 innings, which means the Rangers bullpen, and its 5.29 ERA and 1.46 WHIP the past two-plus weeks, takes over. (Locked in at -145)

Tyler Mahle has had two real bad outings; both were at Great American Ballpark. On the road, he’s 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA a sub-.200 average allowed and sub-1.00 WHIP. The Cardinals’ offense has bottomed out, ranking last in OPS the past 15 days. St. Louis starer Johan Oviedo has gone more than 4.1 innings just once, and the team’s bullpen has offered little relief. (Locked in at -125)

Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has an issue keeping the ball in the park, and that’s especially true on the road, allowing eight HRs in four games. His 7.31 road ERA reflects that. The White Sox own a .766 OPS at home and a league-high .835 OPS vs. LHPs. Lucas Giolito has been especially strong at home, and the White Sox bullpen is 1.5 runs better on the year. (Locked in at -115)

Luis Castillo has become my new Matt Harvey – fade him if the price is reasonable. That’s especially true on the road, where he’s 0-4 with an 8.74 ERA. Cincy’s offense, good at home, averages only 3.8 rpg on the road and ranks 27th vs. left-handed pitching. Kwang Hyun Kim owns a 1.84 ERA at home and his best start all season so far was against these Reds. (Locked in at -130).

LeBron James hasn’t lost an elimination game that wasn’t in the NBA Finals since 2010 (!), but this is a different year. This Suns team has been humming since going unbeaten in the playoff bubble last year. It routed the Anthony Davis-less Lakers in Game 5. L.A. is only 13-20 ATS as a home favorite, Phoenix is 8-3 as a road dog, not to mention an impressive 22-8 ATS vs. teams with an above-.550 win percentage. Phoenix has significant motivation to get it done now, before Davis heals. (Locked in at +2)

The Padres are averaging 6.1 runs per game over the past two-plus weeks, compared to 4.5 for the Mets. But the teams’ OPS in that span is the same (.721); San Diego has benefited from playing on the road. Its offense hasn’t put runs up at home. Yu Darvish was humming this season before getting torched last time out. Taijuan Walker, meanwhile, has allowed one earned run over his last four starts and the Mets’ bullpen has actually outplayed the Padres’ vaunted unit lately. There is value in the big number on New York. (Locked in at +160).

Seattle’s offense has taken a dive (3.5 rpg the past two weeks), while the Angels’ bats are finally heating back up. They’ve especially been tough at home, averaging a solid 5.4 rpg there with a .782 OPS. The pitching matchup favors L.A., too. Justus Sheffield has been serviceable in Seattle but away from it he’s 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA with a massive average allowed (.356) and WHIP (1.88). Trusting Griffin Canning is a risk but his best start of the year was vs. these Mariners - Seattle is just 3-of-27 all-time off him. (Locked in at -160).

Austin Gomber has figured things out, allowing five runs over his last four starts – three of those on the road. He returns to Coors Field here but that’s where he has been his best, with a 1.88 ERA and .149 average allowed. Texas’ offense has struggled vs. LHPs and has been in a funk just about everywhere. Mike Foltynewicz has thrown far better lately, but Colorado’s offense is always a different story at home. (Locked in at -130).

We keep waiting for Niemann to take that next step. He’s getting there. Niemann has not missed a single cut this season and has finished top 10 in nearly 25% of events. Drop it to top 30 and it’s 11 of 17. The top 20 odds are far better so we’ll take a leap. He ranks 21st or better in Strokes Gained: Putting and Tee-to-Green and is top 10 on par 4’s – another key attribute on this tough course.

Game 4 was a 187-point offensive dud, but the previous three games all had at least 216 and averaged 230. The average games for both these teams based on averages and location all fall between 218 and 223 points. The Under is king in Clippers games but the Over is beneficial for Dallas, and it’s hit in seven of the last eight Mavs road games, including Games 1 and 2 in L.A. (Locked in at 217)