Adam Thompson
@_Adam_Thompson_
Performance
| Sport | Last 7 Days | Last 30 Days | Current Season | Past Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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8-2 (80%) | 28-18 (60.9%) | 94-47 (66.7%), 22-8 L30 O/U (73.3%) | |
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3-0 (100%) | 16-4 (80%) | 58-37 Best Bets (61.1%) | 64.4% Best Bets in 2019, +5,321 on all NFL picks |
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67-54 L121 (+1041); 17-9 (+1420) WS Picks/Props | |||
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18-11 L29 (+794) |
About Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.
Adam Thompson's Picks
NFL
Buccaneers at Saints
NFL
Browns at Chiefs
PAST PICKS
NBA
Over/Under
Pistons-Heat Over
Win
Over
217.5
The Pistons’ last three games have hit Under, the last three for the Heat have been Over. Miami’s offense has stepped up in light of all the virus absences but its defense has taken a hit. Detroit takes major steps in the wrong direction defensively on the road. (Locked in at 217.5)
NBA
Spread
Hornets over Raptors
Win
Hornets
+7
I liked the Hornets when these teams played on Thursday. Gordon Hayward was a surprise late scratch and they still covered. This spread is still too low. Hayward is balling and Charlotte has been one of the best covers in the NBA (5-1 ATS last six). The Raptors aren’t playing inspired ball and their Tampa home isn’t giving much advantage. (Locked in at +7)
NFL
Spread
Packers over Rams
Win
Packers
-6.5
The No. 1 scoring offense vs. the No. 1 overall defense. But L.A. hasn’t been great against attacks that are adept at both running and passing, and Aaron Rodgers is on a different level than anyone else right now. A banged-up Aaron Donald doesn’t help the Rams’ chances, and a turnover-prone Jared Goff and hobbled Cooper Kupp makes things tougher. So, potentially, does the rugged weather at Lambeau. (Locked in at -6.5)
NBA
Spread
Celtics over Magic
Win
Celtics
-4
The Celtics will be short-handed after three straight postponements. But they won six of seven prior and have enough talent here at home. Orlando has its own issues, and it has lost three straight by an average of 26 ppg. (Locked in at -2)
NBA
Spread
Hornets over Raptors
Win
Hornets
+8.5
The Raptors are just 1-2 at “home” in Tampa this season and have just two wins all season, thanks mostly to a defense that has been a sieve of late. Gordon Hayward is slated to play – he has been as advertised for a Hornets team that has won four of five and has been a moneymaker as the underdog. (Locked in at +8.5)
NBA
Over/Under
Pelicans-Clippers Over
Win
Over
215.5
The Pelicans have dropped three straight and Zion Williamson won’t play here. But New Orleans games score points; the last four games have hit Over and averaged 230 points. Clippers games average well over this current total. Zion’s absence pushed this number far too low. (Locked in at 215.5)
NBA
Spread
Grizzlies over Timberwolves
Win
Grizzlies
+2.5
Karl-Anthony Towns returns for the Wolves but the Grizzlies have been solid as an underdog, and especially when the lines is 3.5 points or less. They’re 4-0 ATS in the last four times with a small spread. And they have the personnel to make things tougher for Towns. (Locked in at +2.5)
NBA
Spread
Bucks over Pistons
Loss
Bucks
-10.5
These teams played twice in Milwaukee a week ago, with the Bucks winning by 10 and 15. Detroit has just two wins and one of them was in OT. Every Bucks win has been by double figures this season. (Locked in at -10.5)
NBA
Over/Under
Lakers-Rockets Under
Loss
Under
222.5
LeBron James, Anthony Davis, John Wall and Eric Gordon are among a slew of players considered questionable for this one. Any mix of those guys sit, and offense takes a hit. The Lakers have the No. 4 defense in the NBA, while the Rockets’ last four games have all totaled 221-223 points; that’s where the line is now. (Locked in at 222.5)
NFL
Spread
Saints over Bears
Win
Saints
-9.5
We’ve heard no announcement at this point, but we’re expecting Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to return to an offense that scored 33 without them last week. Mitchell Trubisky has his moments but can hand over games to defenses that can take it. New Orleans ranks fourth in yards allowed and fifth in scoring. Since Week 6 the Bears are 0-5 vs. playoff teams, losing by an average of 11.8 ppg. (Locked in at -9.5)
NBA
Spread
Bulls over Clippers
Win
Bulls
+11.5
The Clippers will be motivated after blowing a 20-point second-half lead vs. the Warriors, losing by 10. But Chicago has covered in six of seven, all as underdogs. The Bulls just lost at the Lakers by 2 and Kings by 4, but beat the Blazers and Mavericks the two games prior. It’s too many points to give a team that’s been oh-so-close against the other West elite. (Locked in at +11.5)
NBA
Spread
Pistons over Jazz
Loss
Pistons
+8
The Pistons have just two wins but are above-.500 ATS, competing against every team they’ve played not called the Bucks. The Jazz have had their number over the years and just beat the Bucks in Milwaukee. But this is a letdown spot for Utah coming off a huge win and record-setting 3-point performance. (Locked in at +8)
NFL
Spread
Ravens over Titans
Win
Ravens
-3
The No. 1 and No. 2 run offenses in the NFL. No team has allowed fewer rush TDs than the Ravens. They’ve also allowed the third-fewest pass TDs to receivers. They’re also the hottest unit around, allowing 19 points or fewer in five of the last six weeks. The Ravens led the Titans 21-10 in the second half before losing in OT. Assuming both offenses stick to the plan, Tennessee shouldn’t have the defensive horses to hang for four quarters. The Ravens also have revenge on their plate, not just for this season but for last year’s playoff shocker. (Locked in at -3)
NFL
Spread
Colts over Bills
As well as the Bills are playing, just one of their victories during this six-game win streak was against a playoff team, and that was an ugly 26-15 win over a downtrodden Steelers unit. The Colts have also hit their stride – the defense has been solid all season, and the offense with a new QB and rookie RB is averaging 30.4 ppg the last eight weeks. (Locked in at +7)
NBA
Spread
Bucks over Jazz
Loss
Bucks
-5.5
All of Milwaukee’s wins have been double-figure blowouts, including every home game. Utah’s eastern road trip has been a disaster, losing by 34 to the Nets and by 12 to the lowly Knicks. The Bucks’ match up well with Donovan Mitchell and has the big-man shooting to keep Rudy Gobert from clogging the lane – opening it for Giannis. (Locked in at -5.5)
NBA
Spread
Suns over Pistons
Loss
Suns
-6.5
It’s the best team in the West vs. the worst team of the East. That’s enough reason to question the current spread, but Detroit’s frontcourt is going to be very shorthanded for this one, and against the frontcourt-powerhouse Suns, that makes this matchup even more of a mismatch. (Locked in at -6.5)
NBA
Spread
Mavericks over Nuggets
Win
Mavericks
+3.5
Luke Doncic finally looked like Luka Doncic in his last game, a triple-double masterpiece. The Mavericks have gotten up for the big games – they’ve lost to the Bulls and Hornets but beaten the Clippers, Rockets and Heat. The only team Denver has defeated since opening day is Minnesota. If the Mavs can keep the Nuggets off the glass, Dallas wins straight up. (Locked in at +3.5)
NBA
Spread
Bulls over Kings
Win
Bulls
+7.5
The Bulls are missing a slew of players, but they were missing those same players and just beat the Blazers. The Kings haven’t won a game since Tyrese Haliburton injured his wrist. He may play tonight but Chicago should keep it close. This is too many points. (Locked in at +7.5)
NBA
Spread
Clippers over Warriors
Win
Clippers
-0.5
Paul George is questionable at this moment but he sat on Tuesday with the idea he’d play vs. the Warriors here. Even Kawhi Leonard is playing his second straight night (gasp). Together, the Clippers have too many options against Golden State’s last-ranked defense. (Locked in at -0.5)
NBA
Spread
Celtics over Heat
Win
Celtics
+3.5
Marcus Smart should return to action for Boston, which has revenge on its mind following the Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Heat. The Celtics have been a bettor's dream as an underdog, covering in 21 of their last 27 including three of four this season. (Locked in at +3.5)
NBA
Spread
Hawks over Hornets
Loss
Hawks
-6
The Hawks have blown 15-point leads their last two games and come in without depth as Rajon Rondo and Danilo Gallinari remain out. But Charlotte and its offense-challenged lineup isn’t the team to take advantage. The Hornets have been blown out three straight games and Atlanta’s tough-to-slow offense can pull away. (Locked in at -6)
NBA
Spread
76ers over Wizards
Loss
76ers
-6.5
The Sixers have just one loss, and it was the season opener without Joel Embiid. They’ve won their last four, by an average of 15.8 ppg and all by at least eight. The Wizards are bouncing back from their 0-3 start and have defeated the Nets, but Ben Simmons can frustrate Russell Westbrook and the rest can come easy for Philly. (Locked in at -6.5)
NBA
Over/Under
Spurs-Clippers Under
Spurs star LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable and won’t be 100% if he goes, and Marcus Morris is out for the Clippers. Even with them, the Under has been the trend on both sides and when they face each other, with the Under hitting in four of five. It’s been a huge trend for the Clippers at home and is a combined 6-3 in these teams’ last nine games. Spurs road games and Clippers home games have averaged 217.6 ppg. (Locked in at 228)
NBA
Spread
Celtics over Raptors
Win
Celtics
+4.5
The Celtics are going to be short-handed without Kemba Walker and Jeff Teague, and likely Marcus Smart. But there are enough weapons here to still challenge. These teams aren’t far apart from last year’s rosters. In those four games, all were decided by two points or less; Boston won three of them. The Raptors have just one win and it was vs. the Knicks. The Celtics have only two defeats and they were by a combined four points. (Locked in at +4.5)
NBA
Spread
Suns over Clippers
Loss
Suns
+3.5
The balanced Suns have the top-ranked defense and this is only their second home game; they won the first by 25. The Clippers are 4-2 but it’s been a two-man show. We’ve been riding Phoenix a lot this season. No reason to stop until they get their earned respect. (Locked in at +3.5)
NBA
Spread
Mavericks over Bulls
Loss
Mavericks
-5
The Bulls remain shorthanded and its defense has particularly suffered. Dallas hasn’t been consistent with the ball but that should change here. We’re banking on the Luke Doncic playing (and likely sitting Monday at Houston to rest a quad) and jumping on this too-short line before it’s official. (Locked in at -5)
NFL
Spread
Saints over Panthers
Win
Saints
-6
The Saints have reason to push forward in Week 17, not just to keep the momentum from last week’s 52-point outburst but a chance to gain the No. 1 seed or at least remain No. 2 (and play the Bears or Cardinals in Round 1 vs. the Rams or Buccaneers). At full strength, the Saints can overpower the Panthers in the trenches. (Locked in at -6)
NFL
Spread
Chargers over Chiefs
Win
Chargers
-3.5
The Chargers have been a massive disappointment, but there is a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. They should be able to handle a Chiefs team that literally has nothing to play for. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill aren’t going to play, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Andy Reid incorporates a lineup more befitting Week 4 of the preseason. Even Anthony Lynn can’t screw this up, right? Right? Lock this in before KC’s first “injury report” is revealed. Chargers in a rout. (Locked in at -3.5)
NFL
Spread
49ers over Seahawks
Win
49ers
+6
Seattle has the motivation here, but I can see the Niners want to end on a strong note, and for Seattle to be OK with a loss, as it’s unlikely a win gives them a No. 1 seed anyway. Health will become the top priority at some point -- perhaps by halftime. Despite the record, San Francisco is one of only three teams ranking in the top half in run and pass offense as well as run and pass defense (Packers and Rams). The Niners went run-first and George Kittle’s return was a massive boost for the offense last week. (Locked in at +6)
NFL
Spread
Cowboys over Giants
Loss
Cowboys
-2.5
These teams are strongly headed in opposite directions going into Week 17. Dallas has tallied 30-plus points the last three weeks and its pass defense is a top 10 unit after a horrid first half of the year. Its run defense stinks but Wayne Gallman isn’t the guy to take advantage. NYG is averaging 11 ppg the last five games. (Locked in at -2.5)
NFL
Spread
Patriots over Jets
Win
Patriots
-3
Each team ends a nightmarish season here, but for Cam Newton this is a one-game resume to show teams he deserves one more starting opportunity – somewhere. The Pats’ defense is far better than it showed vs. Buffalo and while the Jets have clearly been playing the better ball lately, they’re lacking across the board. Look for Bill Belichick to get the troops fired up at home. (Locked in at -3)
NFL
Spread
Ravens over Bengals
Win
Ravens
-11.5
Baltimore is back to playing its brand and its level of football, with four straight wins, three by at least 14 points. A Super Bowl-caliber team playing red-hot ball and in must-win mode is bad news for the Bengals, who lost 27-3 to the Ravens earlier this year. Cincy’s 25th-ranked run defense, which was gashed by the Texans’ dead-last run game a week ago, is in for a long day against the league’s best rush attack. (Locked in at -11.5)
