That first big-time SEC matchup of the season always hits different. As soon as you hear the soothing sounds of Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson on a fall Saturday with big implications, you know it’s game on for the rest of the season.

Things are getting real this week in college football betting with No. 1 Alabama playing at No. 11 Florida for an electric college football betting matchup at The Swamp.

The Tide have won seven straight over the Gators, with the last three meetings taking place in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama hasn’t played in Gainesville since a 38-10 win back in 2011. This is now a much different Florida offense, and the crowd will be rocking for the rematch of last year’s 52-46 shootout in Atlanta. Check out our college football picks for this matchup.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

Alabama vs. Florida Key Matchups

Florida Quarterbacks vs. Alabama Front Seven: Florida has used Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson at quarterback this season, and the Tide won’t cover unless they can limit their abilities on the ground. Both guys have serious speed and can break off big runs at any minute. But whichever QB gets the bulk of work will need to hit some key throws early or the Tide can quickly make them one-dimensional. This is a huge week for the Tide linebackers and defensive ends, and the Gators will make them pay whenever they lose contain.

John Metchie III vs. Florida Secondary: The Gators let Alabama’s No. 1 wideout go nuts in the 2020 SEC title game, with DeVonta Smith racking up 15 catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns. That can’t happen again. Metchie already has 11 catches for 146 yards and is quickly becoming Bryce Young’s favorite target. The Tide have other dangerous options such as Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams, but shutting down Metchie should be priority No. 1 for the Gators DBs.

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5 Key Stats For Alabama vs. Florida

+4: Turnover ratio for the Tide through two games, compared to -1 for Florida.

0: Prior road starts for Tide quarterback Bryce Young entering The Swamp.

3: Total first-half points allowed by Alabama so far this season.

381.5: Rushing yards per game for the Gators, best in the nation by more than 20 yards.

90,000: Number of screaming Florida fans, who will pack The Swamp after restrictions limited attendance to roughly 17,000 in 2020.

Alabama vs. Florida Weather Forecast

This could be a wet one, with an 83% chance of rain and potential for thunderstorms on a cloudy, humid afternoon in Gainesville.

Alabama vs. Florida Moneyline

Alabama is a -630 favorite on the moneyline at sportsbooks, so Tide backers will be laying a big number there. It’s paid off for more than a year now with Alabama carrying a 15-game win streak into this one. Florida is a juicy home underdog with +450 odds, and we saw a similar number cash just last week when Oregon upset Ohio State in Columbus.

Alabama vs. Florida Point Spread

Alabama is a -14.5 favorite against Florida on betting apps, though the line has dropped to -14 at times. It’s a relatively small number for the Tide. Alabama went as high as -17.5 for last year’s SEC title game on a neutral field, one of four games in which the Tide failed to cover in 2020.

The Gators are 0-2 against the spread this season after wins over Florida Atlantic and South Florida that weren’t quite as lopsided as the -23.5 and -29.5 point spreads suggested. But we like their chances to do it this week against Alabama.

Florida’s defensive line is vastly improved thanks to key transfer additions, and we expect them to get some pressure on Young in his first career road start. On the other side of the ball, Jones and Richardson are home run threats on every snap and Nick Saban has struggled against mobile quarterbacks at times in the past.

We expect a competitive showing from Florida and a cover at at +14.5 with BetMGM .

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Alabama vs. Florida Total

This total opened at 54.5 when college football odds were first released this week and has since shot up to 59.5 at most betting shops. That shows how much faith the public has in these offenses, but the total was 74.5 when Florida and Alabama played in the 2020 SEC title game.

That low of an opening number suggests oddsmakers believe weather could have a serious impact. Heavy rain would definitely make things harder on the quarterbacks and puts more of an emphasis on the trenches. Considering the current forecasts, we’ll take advantage of all that action moving the total and jump on Under 59.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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