By Dan Kilbridge | | 14 mins
CFP National Championship: Best Player Prop Bets For Alabama vs Georgia
The college football betting market is holding steady in the days leading up to the Alabama-Georgia National Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the Bulldogs favored by -3 almost everywhere.
Now the player prop market is beginning to take shape, with sportsbooks offering a number of individual passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown totals.
The good news is following the launch of online sports betting in New York on Saturday, bettors in the Empire State can now legally wager on the National Championship too. New York bettors should keep an eye out for special sign-up deals like the ones on offer at Caesars Sportsbook New York and DraftKings New York.
While everyone loves getting down on spread and totals for the big games, those will be the most efficient lines bettors see all season. The player prop market is a great way to go for savvy wagering action on the College Football Playoff, and we’ve got our eyes on six great player prop bets to make as the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs get set for a rematch of the SEC title game with a National Championship at stake.
Top Alabama-Georgia CFP National Championship Player Props
|Brock Bowers Under 73.5 Receiving Yards||-112 at Caesars|
|Ja’Corey Brooks Over 45.5 Receiving Yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Stetson Bennet Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes||-130 at DraftKings|
|James Cook Over 40.5 Rushing Yards||-114 at Caesars|
|Bryce Young Over 314.5 Passing yards||-115 at DraftKings|
|Slade Bolden Under 41.5 Receiving Yards||-114 at Caesars|
Brock Bowers Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
Handicapping player props is always a little different in a rematch scenario like this, with only a few weeks since the last meeting. That information obviously helps, but the key is to use it correctly. The box score never tells the whole story. We can use those stats in context to make smarter decisions, while keeping in mind that gameplans and circumstances could be very different than they were in Alabama’s 41-24 win last month.
For example, Bowers had 10 catches for 139 yards in that first meeting. But that doesn’t mean he’s a lock for another huge game. The box score doesn’t show that just one of those catches came in the first half, during which he only had two targets. Almost all of Bowers’ production came in the second half when Alabama already had a two-score lead and was playing softer coverage.
That first half is a much better indication of what the Bulldogs’ offense will likely try to do in the National Championship. That means way less Bowers than we saw the first time around.
We’re on Bowers Under 73.5 receiving yards at Caesars Sportsbook.
Ja’Corey Brooks Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Again, those box scores can be deceiving. Brooks only had one catch for nine yards in the SEC title game and hasn’t been a regular contributor this season. We expect a much bigger impact in this game.
The true freshman – ranked the No. 2 wideout in the nation in the 2021 recruiting class – has been stepping up big time when needed in recent weeks. With Jameson Williams out for the second half against Auburn, Brooks caught a game-tying, 28-yard touchdown pass with 24 seconds left in the Tide’s eventual 24-22 overtime win. With John Metchie out for the season due to an injury suffered in the SEC title game, Brooks caught a career-high four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati in the CFP semifinal.
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young clearly likes this guy in big spots regardless of experience. With Metchie sidelined for the National Championship, we expect Brooks to step up again.
We love Ja’Corey Brooks Over 45.5 receiving yards at DraftKings.
Stetson Bennet Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Georgia’s defense gets a ton of love and rightfully so. The Bulldogs hold opponents to less than 10 points per game and even had some whispering “greatest defense of all time” throughout the year. Lost in all this is the fact that Alabama is equally good at defending the run.
The Tide have only given up one rushing touchdown over the last eight games and Will Anderson is the best linebacker in the country. It’s gonna be tough sledding again for Georgia’s vaunted rushing attack, which only managed 109 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting.
Stopping the run was clearly Nick Saban’s top priority and likely will be again. Stetson Bennett is a capable quarterback for the Dawgs, but he’s not gonna cause any sleepless nights for opposing defensive coordinators. Alabama keyed in on the running backs in that first meeting, Bennett took advantage with 340 yards and three touchdowns and it still wasn’t good enough. We expect a similar defensive game plan from Saban and another big statistical night from Bennett, even if it doesn’t translate to a big Bulldogs lead.
Stetson Bennett Over 1.5 touchdown passes at DraftKings is the play.
James Cook Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
As good as Alabama was against the run in Atlanta, the Bulldogs must try the ground and pound approach again. Slow playing it while staying ahead of the sticks on first and second down is Georgia’s best and maybe only path to victory.
That means a heavy dose of James Cook and Zamir White in the early going. They’ve split production equally all season and Cook’s speed makes him more valuable in this matchup. He had 11 carries for 38 yards in the SEC title game, but Georgia had to abandon the run in the second half. We expect him to get more work this time around and have a slightly bigger impact.
We like Cook Over 40.5 rushing yards at Caesars Sportsbook.
Bryce Young Over 314.5 Passing yards
Alabama wants a track meet here. That’s how the Tide beat Georgia last month, with just 26 rushing attempts on offense. That’s how they’ll do it again with the Bulldogs still playing so tough against the run.
The Bulldogs’ secondary has given up a few big numbers in recent weeks – Tennessee racked up 332 passing yards in mid-November and Young and the Tide went for 421 yards and three passing touchdowns last month.
It’s also important to remember quarterbacks are not robots. They’re kids who evolve and improve with experience. We expect Alabama’s quarterback to look like a Heisman winner every year, but that discounts the process and improvements made by guys like Young in their first season as a starter.
Young is now playing his best ball of the season and looks way better than he did in the early going. He’s surpassed 315 passing yards in three of the last four games, and he averages 407.4 yards during games in which he attempts 40 or more passes.
We expect another 40-attempt night for Young and his passing yards to go Over 314.5 yards at DraftKings.
Slade Bolden Under 41.5 Receiving Yards
Bolden has been a modest contributor this year. He had a season-high five catches for 54 yards in the SEC title game, but we expect a quieter night in the National Championship.
We already mentioned the newfound trust with Young and Brooks now that Metchie is out. Young will likely lean heavily on him as a go-to option behind Jameson Williams, with Bolden seeing fewer targets this time around. The junior has only surpassed 41 receiving yards three times in 14 games this season, so these odds look even more tempting.
We’re on Bolden Under 41.5 receiving yards at Caesars.