By David Caraviello | | 6 mins
Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds, Betting Lines & Predictions
Could the two major programs in the Hawkeye State have had a more diverse opening weekend? Nobody in the nation outside of Alabama and UCLA looked better than Iowa, which throttled Indiana. Meanwhile, an Iowa State program loaded with expectations had to work to hold off FCS Northern Iowa.
Now, the two rivals battle each other in a top-25 matchup, where the Hawkeyes are a slight road underdog at most Iowa sports betting sites despite a far more impressive opening performance and a five-game winning streak in the series.
Will Iowa keep that run going, or will Iowa State live up to its top-10 potential? Expect this to see a lot of action in college football betting as one of the marquee matchups of Week 2.
Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.
Iowa vs. Iowa State Key Matchups
Brock Purdy vs. Iowa’s defense: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy might be the most dynamic player on the field, but he’ll need more production than he showed in the opener, where he threw for just 199 yards. That could be a tough ask, given how Iowa’s defense held standout Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. to 14 of 29 attempts for 156 yards, and picked him off twice.
Breece Hall vs. Iowa’s front seven: Hall, the Cyclones’ standout running back, rushed for 1,572 yards last season. But he struggled to find room against Northern Iowa, managing just 69 yards. And then there’s that Iowa defense again, which held Indiana to 2.5 yards per rush.
Iowa State vs. slow starts: Matt Campbell has built a nice program, but he’s still only 8-11 in August and September. The Cyclones have struggled in season openers almost every year since 2016. Last season in Week 2, they beat a mediocre TCU team by three. The year before that, they lost at home to Iowa.
5 Key Stats For Iowa vs Iowa State
23: The number of consecutive games in which Iowa has held opponents to under 25 points, a streak that goes back to late 2018.
2: The number of pick-sixes by Iowa defensive back Riley Moss against Indiana, making him just the third Hawkeyes player to record two in the same game.
-53: Iowa State’s cumulative scoring margin in the first two games of the season under Campbell, hired prior to the 2016 campaign.
24-11: Purdy’s record as starting quarterback at Iowa State, a position he’s held since the 2018 season.
6-2-1: Iowa’s record against the spread since the start of the 2020 season.
Iowa vs Iowa State Weather Forecast
Early forecasts indicate that the weather should have no effect: Teams and bettors should expect sunny but very warm conditions for the afternoon kickoff, with highs in the upper 80s and little chance of rain.
Iowa vs Iowa State Moneyline
Iowa State is a -200 favorite at sportsbooks, while Iowa is a +160 underdog. It’s understandable why betting sites would favor the home Cyclones, who return the core of the team that finished fourth in the final College Football Playoff rankings.
And in fairness, one week is a small sample size. But given how well Iowa played last week against a ranked opponent, how sluggish Iowa State looked against a lower-tier foe, and how the Hawkeyes have absolutely dominated this series as of late - going with underdog Iowa at +165 with DraftKings looks like a savvy value play.
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Iowa vs Iowa State Point Spread
College football odds have the Cyclones as 4.5-point favorites, which after the results of last week seems far too large a number.
While both teams have been fairly reliable covers in recent years, Iowa State’s weakness clearly comes in the first few weeks of the season; the Cyclones struggle to get it going early, a big reason the Hawkeyes have won five straight in the series. Last week did nothing to make us think differently, and taking the Hawkeyes +4.5 with BetMGM on the road seems like most sensible of college football picks on this game.
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Iowa vs Iowa State Totals
The total of 45 is low, but both defenses are fantastic. Iowa’s streak of not allowing opponents more than 25 points is exceptional, and defense kept the Cyclones in control of their ugly opener against Northern Illinois.
Iowa State went under in seven of 12 last season (with one push), while Iowa went under in five of eight. Both went under in their openers, so expect that trend to continue when wagering on betting apps. You can get -104 with FanDuel for U44.5 .
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