Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Football Betting Predictions & Picks
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It’s time for Catholics vs. Cheeseheads.
No. 12 Notre Dame heads to Chicago's Soldier Field this week for a top-25 showdown against No. 18 Wisconsin. The Badgers are now a -6.5 favorite at sportsbooks, and both teams have something to prove at noon Saturday in Madison.
The Fighting Irish are once again accused of being overrated despite a 3-0 start, while the Badgers are hoping to shake off a 16-10 home loss to Penn State. This is the first time these teams have played since 1964, and the implications are large in what seems like a must-win game for all involved.
This also seems personal for Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan, who led Wisconsin to a Rose Bowl in 2019 but lost the starting job due to injury last season. Coan ended up in South Bend for his senior season, and he’ll have a big chip on his shoulder against his former team. Let’s take a deep dive into this matchup and what it means from a college football betting perspective.
DOG OF THE WEEK: Check Out Our Weekly Feature Where We Pick An Underdog – And a Local Shelter Dog We Hope To Get Adopted. This week: Billie Jean, South Bend Pet Refuge.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Key Matchups
Notre Dame offensive line vs. Wisconsin front seven: We don’t expect Notre Dame to have much success in with the rushing attack. They’ll need to try, obviously, but Wisconsin has the best run defense in the country. The key here is pass protection – if the Irish can give Coan ample time in the pocket, he’ll make big plays and keep the chains moving. But it could be a long day for the Irish offense if he’s under duress with no run game to fall back on. Keep that in mind when making your college football picks.
Chez Mellusi vs. Notre Dame defensive line: Beating the Badgers starts with keeping the running backs from getting to the second level. Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi is a physical tailback with breakaway speed. Mellusi home runs are the biggest threat from another offensively-challenged Wisconsin squad, which rushed for 180 yards against Penn State. The key for the Nittany Lions was limiting explosive plays – Mellusi’s longest run was just 19 yards and the Badgers only averaged 3.1 yards on 58 carries. If the Irish can plug gaps up front and limit the damage, they’ll have a great chance to pull off the upset.
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5 Key Stats For Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin
33: Rushing yards allowed per game for the Badgers, best in the nation.
4: Straight losses for Wisconsin against ranked opponents.
15: Sacks allowed by Notre Dame this season, third-worst in the nation.
57: Years since the last game between these two programs, a 31-7 Irish win..
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Weather Forecast
It looks like we’re all clear Saturday, with no chance of rain or storms and temperatures in the mid-60s on a slightly cloudy afternoon in Madison.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Moneyline
Wisconsin is currently -235 favorite on the moneyline at betting apps, surely thanks in part to the return of home-field advantage this season. Notre Dame is +190 and catching a lot of flack for underwhelming wins over Florida State, Toledo and Purdue. We understand that, but Wisconsin hasn’t proved anything yet and is coming off a tough 4-3 season. We think the value is on Notre Dame to pull off the upset and cash those +190 tickets at WynnBET.
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Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Point Spread
The line has gone up by more than a field goal with Wisconsin now -6.5 after the Badgers opened at -3. We know Notre Dame’s defense has looked questionable-at-best through three games, but Wisconsin’s offense has looked even worse for much of the past two years.
Wisconsin’s key to victory is constant pressure on Coan and a big day for the offensive line. Notre Dame needs to try and speed things up, and any sort of push from the front five would be huge for the Irish to employ some semblance of a run game.
While the Irish have been scrutinized and second-guessed all month, we think Wisconsin has just as many unanswered questions. We’re on Notre Dame and taking the points at BetMGM.
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Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Total
The total opened at 47.5 and has settled in at 45 late in the week at DraftKings. That coincides with the point spread moving toward the Badgers – the uglier the better for Wisconsin in the matchup. If the Irish can find some early success in the passing game and force the Badgers away from the run-run-run mentality, we will see more points than expected.
We still think this number is too high given Wisconsin’s strengths and weaknesses. If the Badgers’ offensive line is successful in pushing Notre Dame around, they’ll stick with it and eat a lot of clock. If Notre Dame can contain the run within reason, we don’t think Wisconsin will score enough. Either way, we see the total going Under 45 at Camp Randall.
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