By Bill Speros | | 9 mins
Blue Jays Playoff Odds: Worth Betting or Best To Avoid?
The Blue Jays return Friday to the nest in Toronto for their first games in Canada since 2019 as the Jays play host to the Kansas City Royals in a weekend series. That date coincides with the MLB trading deadline. Beforehand, the Jays play four games against the Red Sox that could well determine whether they’ll be a contender in the AL East, and possibly for even a wild-card spot. That series begins Monday night.
Entering a four-game series in Boston this week, the Jays are 9.5 games behind Boston in the AL East, and 8.5 games back of Tampa Bay. Both the Rays and Red Sox should be buyers this week. Tampa Bay already added Nelson Cruz, a veteran DH, to its lineup.
The Red Sox, even if they do nothing else, will have Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale back in the rotation most likely during the team’s next homestand. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2020.
Here are Toronto’s MLB odds for the 2021 postseason.
|Blue Jays Make Playoffs||+225|
|Blue Jays Miss Playoffs||-280|
|Blue Jays Win AL East||+1600|
|Blue Jays Win AL Pennant||+1300|
|Blue Jays Win World Series||+3000|
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Blue Jays Best Bets To Back
The Blue Jays are not much of a value to win the AL East, even at +1600 with DraftKings . They would have to leap over both Tampa Bay and Boston, while holding off the sagging Yankees. Sure, there’s an opportunity given that they play the Red Sox eight times in the next two weeks. But each Red Sox loss also benefits Tampa Bay. Those are the perils of trying to overtake two teams instead of just one.
The best sports betting play here is clearly +255 for Toronto to make the playoffs . The Jays are not out of the playoff race by any stretch, especially with 67 games to play. And Toronto doesn’t have to worry about catching the Red Sox or Rays just to get a one-game shot at them in the postseason as the second wild card.
Entering this week, the Jays are four games out of the second wild card, trailing New York, Oakland and Seattle in that race. (The assumption for this exercise is that either Boston or Tampa Bay gets the first wild card and the other wins the division.)
Given the lack of depth in the Jays’ rotation, it’s hard to envision Toronto getting out of the American League under any potential playoff scenario, facing the likes of Boston, Chicago and/or Houston. But any team can snag a one-game wild card win. Toronto’s price on betting apps to win the 2021 World Series is mere filler.
We’ve liked Guerrero for MVP since the All-Star Game and recommend taking that price at sportsbooks now, as it will only continue to tighten as the season moves into August and beyond. Guerrero has plenty of lumber support in the Jays’ lineup – including All-Star second baseman Marcus Semien, All-Star reserve Bo Bichette, and slugger George Springer.
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Blue Jays: Buyers Or Sellers?
Whether the Jays buy, sell or stand pat at the trade deadline will determine the team’s fate across MLB futures markets. It appears sportsbooks in Canada and elsewhere may be sweating it out this week.
The Jays have a strong core of young talent that suits them contractually after this season, so it’s unlikely management would sacrifice any key pieces for prospects who won’t bear fruit for at least two or three years.
The market for pitching – both in terms of starters and bullpen help – is tight. If Toronto chooses to partake as a buyer, it will be competing against both Boston and Tampa Bay. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees wanting to invest any more money into this year’s roster, especially considering New York’s calamitous trip to Boston this past weekend.
When it comes to the Blue Jays, Semien is on a one-year deal and will be a free agent. He would be the most likely member of the Jays to be dealt, assuming the team figures it will be outbid by the likes of ... you guessed it ... the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers or Angels in the offseason.
Just in the past four days, the Jays have dealt reliever Joel Payamps to the Kansas City Royals and former first-round pick T.J. Zeuch to the St. Louis Cardinals – both for cash considerations.
Team ace Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12 ERA, 142Ks in 112.1 IP) is the Jays' best pitching trade bait, given his impending free-agency status after 2021. But dealing him would be a legit act of surrender. And with two months of potentially strong crowds awaiting ownership, after not being able to play at Rogers Centre fans for nearly two years, that would be a tough sell to the masses.
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