Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 4 mins

Will Triple Crown Guarantee MVP For Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Will Triple Crown Guarantee MVP For Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
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Will an American League Triple Crown for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be enough to stop the Shohei Ohtani MVP Express? MLB oddsmakers say “no.”

Ohtani continues to dominate the MLB betting MVP hype machine despite the recent surge by Guerrero and the Blue Jays.

In American League MVP baseball futures markets, the white-hot buzz surrounding Ohtani’s dual-threat abilities continues to push the numbers in his direction. Ohtani’s odds have strengthened even though Vlad Jr. has the American League Triple Crown within reach.

U.S. sportsbooks and sportsbooks in Canada still have Ohtani as a strong favorite in MVP betting.

Ohtani is -3500 at DraftKings to win AL MVP honors. Guererro is the second choice at +1100 at FanDuel.

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Will Triple Crown Guarantee MVP For Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? 1

Triple Crown No MVP Guarantee

Should Guerrero win a Triple Crown, would that make him an automatic pick for MVP honors?

The answer is a surprising “no”. At least, that's the case if you want to use history as a guide. Ted Williams won the Triple Crown twice – in 1942 and 1947. And in both years, he was denied MVP honors. In 1942, the award went to Yankees second baseman Joe Gordon. In 1947, it went to Joe DiMaggio. Both Gordon and DiMaggio played for the pennant-winning Yankees. But they were statistically dominated by Teddy Ballgame.

The last player to win the American League Triple Crown was Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, who also won the MVP award. But Cabrera was not up against a remarkable two-way stud like Ohtani.


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Who else has clocked a 100 MPH fastball and hit a 451-foot home run in the same game like Ohtani did on April 5? Ohtani is 9-2 with 136 strikeouts in 115.1 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .211 with Ohtani on the mound.

The 27-year-old phenom Ohtani continues to mash the ball. Heading into Thursday play, he ranks in the top 10 across the majors with 44 HR (2nd), a .956 OPS (5th) and 290 total bases (5th). His 94 RBIs are tied for 12th in the AL.

Guerrero's Triple Crown Chase

Before the All-Star Game, Guerrero was +115 to homer in the game at DraftKings sportsbook and +300 to hit a home run in an American League victory. Both bets cashed.

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There are no more outright home run, RBI or batting average markets available and betting sites and on sports betting apps.


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Each Triple Crown category in the AL may come down to the final week of the season. The lead in the 2021 Home Run Derby continues to alternate between Guerrero and Ohtani. Guerrero holds a 45-44 lead over Ohtani as of Sept. 15. Guerrero has a 2-point edge over Houston first baseman Yuli Gurriel with a .317 batting average.

Guerrero has fallen off the pace in the AL in the RBI chase. Kansas City catcher Salvador Perez has driven in 110 runs, while Guerrero has just 103 RBI.
Will Triple Crown Guarantee MVP For Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? 2

Triple Crown May Not Be Enough

But even if Guerrero rallies to earn Canada’s first Triple Crown, it won’t be enough to slow the Ohtani machine when it comes to MVP voting. Ontario sports betting fans will have to settle for their team’s surge in the standings and a possible playoff berth.

Ohtani is as much a superstar among his fellow players as he is with the baseball betting public. Even Guerrero asked to be photographed with Ohtani during a break before the Home Run Derby in Denver. Ohtani is playing on a team with no shot at the postseason, but that won’t matter this time.

The Jays returned home to Toronto and live fans on July 30. Since then, the team has gone 29-16 overall and a stellar 19-8 at home. That run has left them tied with the Yankees at 82-64 for the two AL wildcard spots.

The Blue Jays have moved from +200 to -190 make the playoffs at DraftKings in the past month. MVP voting takes place between the end of the regular season and playoffs, so any postseason performance is irrelevant to the process.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.