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Max Scherzer Next Team Odds: Rangers Favored to Deal For 3X Cy Young Winner

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Max Scherzer Next Team Odds: Rangers Favored to Deal For 3X Cy Young Winner

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Max Scherzer is an all-timer of a pitcher. He’s a three-time Cy Young Award winner. Eight times he’s finished in the top five of Cy Young voting. He’s an 8-time All Star. This season has been a mixed bag for the 38-year-old Scherzer, though. He sports a solid 8-3 record through July 18, but his 3.99 ERA is his worst mark since 2011, and his strikeout rate is the lowest since ’11 as well.  

All of that pales in comparison to the overall struggles of his team, however.

The Mets have built a team that has a payroll $65 million higher than any other team, and the highest in the history of baseball. Yet, New York is well under .500 and far out of contention in the NL East. The situation is so bad, owner Steve Cohen held a press conference prior to a loss to the Brewers last month and said "If we don't get better, we have some decisions to make at the trade deadline (Aug. 1)."

The Mets are mediocre 6-6 since that press conference (as of July 18), which has only fueled the rumors that they'll be sellers at the deadline.

One of the biggest decisions will be whether or not to trade Scherzer, who has reportedly indicated he would waive his no-trade clause for the right opportunity. Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his hypothetical MLB odds for Scherzer’s post-deadline team. 

Max Scherzer Next Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
New York Mets+30025.0%
Texas Rangers+50016.7%
Houston Astros+55015.4%
San Francisco Giants+75011.8%
Boston Red Sox+75011.8%
Arizona Diamondbacks+80011.1%
Cincinnati Reds+9509.5%
The Field+45018.2%

Odds are projected and do not reflect any odds that may be available at legal betting sites or betting apps.

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Scherzer The Biggest Chip if Mets Sell

Mets owner Steve Cohen wants badly to bring a World Series to Queens. This offseason he tried to buy one. It hasn’t worked out. As of July 18, the Mets are 18.5 games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, and 8.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. 

The offense ranks 20th in runs scored, pitching hasn't been much better with a 4.36 ERA that ranks 19th. New York may opt to erase some of the contract expenses and use that money elsewhere next offseason. Shohei Ohtani can expect a call from Cohen’s people. 

Scherzer is due to make $43.3 million this season with a player option of the same amount for 2024. If he waives his no-trade clause as many believe he will, aggressive-minded contenders will come calling. What's more, the Mets could fetch a decent return of prospects since Scherzer isn't merely a half-season rental.

While this season has seen a dip in production from Scherzer, he’s just one year removed from posting a 2.29 ERA and 11-5 record for the Mets. The year prior, he went 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA after getting traded to the Dodgers. Teams desperate to take that next step may pull the trigger on acquiring the future Hall of Famer. 


RELATED: Marcus Stroman Next Team Odds: Yankees + Orioles Favorites to Deal for SP


Which Teams Might Trade For Scherzer?

The Texas Rangers signed Jacob deGrom away from the Mets this offseason with a massive contract. It hasn’t panned out. The oft-injured deGrom is out for the season after it was revealed he needs a second Tommy John surgery. 

Nevertheless, the Rangers lead the AL West and are on pace to secure their first playoff berth and first winning season since 2016. Texas’ starting rotation owns a 3.51 ERA, second only to the Rays, so it isn’t a pressing need. Still, if Texas believes Scherzer could be a difference-maker, it is likely to make an offer to him or Mets rotation brother Justin Verlander. 

Two other teams on the verge of breakout seasons could make a move, too. The Cincinnati Reds lost 100 games last year but are NL Central leaders and building a buzz. That’s despite a rotation that ranks 28th in ERA and a payroll that’s 25th. The Reds can also make a statement to fans by adding Scherzer, and it has younger, future standouts it could move. 

The Reds, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, each have farm systems that rank in the top five. Arizona’s rotation ranks 21st. Despite that, the D-backs lead the NL West over the Dodgers, Giants and Padres, though the gap is closing. Do they have enough pitching to finish the job? Adding a been-there, done-that veteran like Scherzer, who the D-backs drafted in 2006, could help add an arm and build a mindset. 

Many believe the Houston Astros could use one more reliable starter for the stretch run. Scherzer’s best performance this season was earlier in June, an eight-inning, one-run game vs. Houston. The Astros’ payroll ranks 10th, which would be their lowest spot since 2017. The extra money in the coffers could go to pitching help. The Boston Red Sox are in the same boat, with less payroll than usual and a dire need for a frontline starter for the stretch run. 

The San Francisco Giants tried to spend big this season, but went 0-for-2 on their massive offers to Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge. Yet, San Francisco is firmly in the hunt a postseason berth. Interestingly, the team ranks 10th in ERA, ninth in scoring and 13th in hitting – OK not great numbers compared to other contenders. The proactive Giants may try to land this big fish to give them an edge in the ultra-competitive NL West. 

The desperate and free-spending San Diego Padres, who own the third-highest payroll in MLB and stuck in fourth place in their own division, lead The Field. Other teams that could try and convince Scherzer to opt out of his player option and make it a shorter rental player could include the Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. It's hard to imagine the Mets trading Scherzer to the hated New York Yankees, but the pinstripes are in dire need of another frontline starter. It could behoove the Mets to get a haul back from their crosstown rivals, if they’re willing to open a conversation. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.