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2023 NBA Finals Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for Nuggets vs. Heat

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 4 mins

2023 NBA Finals Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for Nuggets vs. Heat

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Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are just the second No. 8 seed in NBA history to reach the NBA Finals. They are four wins away from making history as the first 8-seed to win an NBA title. The Denver Nuggets, meanwhile, have never even played for a championship before. One of these teams will make history by the time the 2023 NBA Finals conclude.

Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals is Thursday night in Denver. The Nuggets are massive -400 favorites on betting apps to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

The Heat are posted at +300. Miami has been big underdogs in all three Eastern Conference series, yet here Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin and the rest of the Heat are, making everyone look foolish for doubting them.

"Playoff Jimmy Butler" will be immortalized forever if the Heat pull this off, especially when it comes to Game 1, since Denver has a huge rest advantage. The Nuggets have been idle since completing a sweep of the Lakers on May 22, while the Heat were pushed to 7 games by Boston after holding a 3-0 lead.

Ahead of Game 1, Bookies.com breaks down the series and makes our NBA betting picks to back today.

2023 NBA Finals Odds For Nuggets vs. Heat

Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals Betting Tips

Over And Out: The final four Heat-Celtics games all finished Under, but the Over was 10-3 in Miami's prior playoff games. The Over is a modest 8-7 in Nuggets' postseason games, but the Over has hit in every Nuggets-Heat game over the past 2.5 years. 

Rocky Mountain Chasm: The Nuggets are a totally different team at home. They average 5.7 ppg more at home and allow 6.4 ppg fewer, with an NBA-best +10.1 ppg margin in home games. Denver's 62.5% cover rate at home ranked No. 2 behind the Warriors. 

Star Power: Nikola Jokic has averaged 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists through these playoffs. Jimmy Butler is at 28.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 5.7 apg. Each star leads their team in all three categories. While the Nuggets won both regular-season meetings, Jokic's stats (23 ppg, 12 rpg, 10 apg) fell below his latest, lofty standards. The same goes for Butler from a scoring perspective (20.5, 8.0, 8.5). Unders, on points especially, could be an early prop play for the stars. 

Best Bets for NBA Finals 2023: Nuggets vs. Heat

Denver blew through Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, then LeBron James and Anthony Davis. And the Nuggets didn’t need seven games to do either. Denver has also won the last six games vs. Miami, though the two games this season were both close (124-119 and 112-108). 

Miami has been a story of stories, but Denver possesses the size, speed and skill advantages, and has a two-time MVP at the center of it all. It also has perhaps the top home-court advantage in the league. It feels like the time for Denver, and for Jokic, to reach the pinnacle. 

We don’t discount Butler, or coach Erik Spoelstra, from finding an edge. Regardless, Denver is the big play here. Nuggets In 4 at +450 and Nuggets In 6 at +400 are the favorite spots on sports betting sites.

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2023 NBA Finals TV Schedule For Nuggets vs. Heat

  • Game 1: Miami at Denver, Thursday, June 1, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Game 2: Miami at Denver, Sunday, June 4, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Game 3: Denver at Miami, Wednesday, June 7, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Game 4: Denver at Miami, Friday, June 9, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • *Game 5: Miami at Denver, Monday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • *Game 6: Denver at Miami, Thursday, June 15, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • *Game 7: Miami at Denver, Sunday, June 18, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

* if necessary

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.