AFC Championship Betting Guide & Best Bets: Broncos Not Horsing Around With Stidham At QB Against Patriots

By Bill Speros

Jan 18th, 2026 8:29 PM EST

(USA TODAY)

The top two teams in the AFC meet Sunday in Denver for a ticket to Super Bowl 60. The New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos in a 3 p.m. (ET) kickoff. Both teams finished 14-2 during the regular season, with the Broncos snagging the tiebreaker and homefield. Check out our AFC Championship Game Betting Guide & Best Bets for a full breakdown.

The Broncos enter the game without starting QB Bo Nix. An ankle injury suffered during overtime of Denver’s instant-classic win over Buffalo on Saturday sideline Nix until next season. Because of Nix’s injury, Sean Payton rolls into the AFC title game as a home underdog against the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Stidham makes his first NFL start in 745 days.

The odds on this game continued to move in New England’s favor, even before the Patriots tossed the Texans in Foxboro on Sunday. The lookahead line had the Broncos as 3-point favorites over New England or Houston. Following the news that nixed Nix, the line immediately flipped to the Houston/New England winner -3. But bettors pushed that number quickly up to New England -5.5 Sunday night after it opened at -4.5.

Bettors can follow and wager responsibly on this game - along with the NFC Championship next Sunday and College Football Playoff championship Monday - on our best sports betting apps.

Patriots & Jarrett Stidham: Just Like Old Times?

Bill Belichick drafted Stidham with the 133^rd pick of 2019 draft as the latest in a series of would-be Tom Brady replacements. Stidham played sparingingly in 2019. Belichick got his wish when Brady bolted for Tampa Bay in March of 2020. But Stidham failed to meet Belichick’s expectations, forcing the Patriots to sign Cam Newton in the summer of 2020, just 2 months before the season began.

Of Stidham’s four NFL starts, two came in Las Vegas under the guise of Patriots current OC Josh McDaniels, when McDaniels served as the Radiers head coach. Stidham's last regular-season pass came in the final game of the 2023 season.

Riding the crest of the “2016 throwback” social media trend, the Patriots play in their 14^th AFC title game since the turn of the century. And yes, this is a rematch of the AFC title game played on January 24, 2016. The host Broncos and Peyton Manning slipped past Brady and the Patriots 20-18.

Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship Game Best Bets

New England (16-3) at Denver Broncos (15-3)
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
3 p.m. – CBS

Buzz: The Broncos earned the top-seed in the AFC with a punishing defense. The Broncos forced Josh Allen into a pair of lost fumbles and three interceptions. (Even if that last interception via Brandon Cooks in overtime was suspect.) Sean Payton told the world Jarrett Stidham is ready for the AFC Championship Game in just his 5^th career start. Don’t expect the Patriots to be surprised about any of Stidham's abilities. Not only did the draft the journeyman backup, half of Stidham’s four career starts game while being coached by Josh McDaniels.

The Patriots defense served notice of its own in their 28-15 dismantlement of the Texans Sunday at cold and wet Gillette Stadium. The Patriots forced C.J. Stroud into 4 interceptions and a pick-six. New England has allowed just 19 points in its two playoff wins. It’s hard to envision Stidham – never mind Nix – being able to tear through the Patriots finally-fully healthy defense.

The Broncos need to follow the game plan implemented by the Texans in the 1^st Sunday and force Drake Maye into turning over the ball. Maye recovered from his mistakes Sunday with MVP-like TD passes to Stef Diggs, Pop Douglas and a one-armed beauty by Kayshon Boutte.

The Patriots haven’t lost a game on the road since Dec. 22, 2024, and own the best NFL record ATS at 13-5-1.  This early line movement shows how much New England’s defense impressed oddsmakers. Denver, meanwhile, remains deep underwater on the number at 8-9. The Broncos (-1.5) covered in their wild and wooly 33-30 OT win over the Bills. But even there, they may have gotten a boost given no one seems to know what constitutes a reception these days. Weather (45 and sunny) won’t be a factor. Don’t be surprised to see this total get eclipsed with plenty of time to spare. New England’s defense delivers in the thin air at Mile High, but the Broncos (thanks in part to the atomic leg of kicker Wil Lutz) nab a backdoor cover. Meanwhile, the Patriots return to the Super Bowl. Everything old is new again.

Best Bet: Broncos +5.5  (-105) BetMGM via OddsJam 

Best Bet: Over 40.5 Points (-105) BetMGM via OddsJam 

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