Kyler Murray Odds For MVP & Other Props: What’s The Best Bet?
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Kyler Murray is no stranger to high expectations. The Arizona Cardinals quarterback has not only embraced them, he’s achieved them.
He was a Heisman Trophy winner in college. He won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year the following season. His statistics all dramatically improved in his second pro season, as did the Cardinals’ record.
With the 2021 NFL season looming, let's break down the available prop bets for the Arizona quarterback at sports betting sites.
NFL betting is available in more than 20 states, and Arizona sports betting is expected to be live in time for the 2021 NFL season. When it does, residents and visitors to the state will have their choice of sites and betting apps to choose from.
Kyler Murray Stats Ascending
Murray already has a trove of hardware. In 2018 he won the Heisman Trophy in his final season at Oklahoma. After being selected first overall by the Arizona Cardinals, Murray earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019. Last season, Murray took another step in his game with notable boosts in completion percentage, passing yards and touchdowns, and rushing yards and TDs. Times sacked also dropped a whopping 21.
|Year||Comp||Att||Pct||Yds||TD||INT||Rush Yds||Rush TDs||Sacks|
The Cardinals backed Murray last offseason by adding star WR DeAndre Hopkins and improved from 5-10-1 in 2019 to 8-8 in 2020. Murray-to-Hopkins accounted for 115 receptions, 1,407 yards and six TDs in 2020. This spring the team added veteran AJ Green and drafted shifty speedster Rondale Moore in the second round. With fellow former second-rounders Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk in the mix, Murray has a wealth of receiving weaponry at his disposal.
Chase Edmonds and James Conner don't comprise the most elite backfield in the NFL, but they should be enough to keep defenses honest. Lest we forget, the electric Murray trailed only Lamar Jackson in QB rushing yards.
In other words, the best could be – even, should be – yet to come for Murray. And the Cardinals. But can he meet oddsmakers’ expectations? Here are Kyler Murray NFL odds in various categories, available at sportsbooks now.
Kyler Murray MVP Odds
Odds: +2300 at FanDuel
Murray ranks No. 10 on the NFL MVP Futures board, just behind Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson (+200) but well behind the odds for favorite Patrick Mahomes (+400). The top 15 players are all QBs, which makes sense; the last eight players to win the award have been QBs.
Murray faces a tall order to win this one. First, there’s the stats. Comparing his breakout 2020 season to that of the last eight NFL MVP-winning QB seasons, it generally doesn’t stack up. Murray is on pace to throw for more than his 3,971 yards of 2020, but the average passing yardage of those MVP QBs was 5,004. Take away the unique MVP year of Lamar Jackson (3,127 yards) and that number leaps to 5,273.
One could argue Murray compares better to Jackson when it comes to the added rush dimension that most MVPs don’t have. But Jackson's 2019 MVP campaign was a special, unique season. Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards and led the Ravens to a 14-2 record. Murray is capable of throwing for 4,000 yards and rushing for 1,000 more – especially in the new 17-game season format. But team success would have to be there, too.
Verdict: Pass on this NFL futures bet
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Kyler Murray NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Odds: +2000 at DraftKings
These offer roughly the same odds as NFL MVP, but Murray has a much more legitimate shot at this one.
While the MVP goes to someone, usually a QB, that has a special season on a special team, the Offensive POY often goes to a player who statistically was dominant. It doesn’t have to be on a Super Bowl contender. It doesn’t have to be a quarterback – RB Derrick Henry and WR Michael Thomas are the last two honorees – but seven of the last 12 winners have been QBs.
Murray could be the first QB in history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 more in a season. The 17-game season makes it even more likely. The only other QBs to challenge those totals are Josh Allen of the Bills and Jackson. Allen is more likely to compete for MVP honors, and Jackson’s stats took a dive in 2020. Murray’s total TDs jumped from 24 as a rookie to 37 as a sophomore. If that number increases as well, Murray will have one of the premier stat sheets.
Verdict: Great value at DraftKings Sportsbook with the current odds
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Kyler Murray Passing Yards: 4,100.5
As a rookie, Murray averaged 232.6 passing yards per game. The team added DeAndre Hopkins for 2020, and Murray’s average jumped to 248.2. He not only avoided the sophomore slump, he improved across the board.
Murray’s passes were considered “On Target” 77.1% of the time, a number that didn’t come close to those of Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins, who were north of 81%. But it was way better than Tom Brady (73.9%), Matt Ryan (75.5%) and even Justin Herbert (76.5%).
The Cardinals added more weapons for Murray for 2021. They play in a tough division, but did so last year when two of the four teams qualified for the NFL Playoffs. Another yardage jump to 260 per game seems very doable, especially as more defenses are forced to take Murray's rushing prowess into consideration.
Now add a 17th game. At 260 ypg, that’s 4,420. It even allows Murray to miss a game and still hit the Over.
Verdict: Jump on the Over at DraftKings