NFL Conference Championship Betting Takeaways: Over Rules
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The 2020 Super Bowl is set, with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs facing off for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 2 in Miami.
The Chiefs have won eight in a row by an average of 16.2 ppg, and all by at least a TD. The 49ers have taken four in a row with dominating playoff wins over the Vikings and Packers, each by 17.
RELATED: Chiefs open as slight favorites over 49ers in Super Bowl 54; you can see the latest Super Bowl 2020 Odds here
Offense has won championships lately. The Patriots shocked the Rams with a 13-3 Super Bowl win last year, but the previous six title games had averaged 56.3 ppg.
Here’s a look back at Conference Championship weekend and a quick look ahead to Super Bowl 2020:
Streaks Live On …
Chiefs Roll Again
Kansas City won again and in convincing fashion. The Chiefs are now 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games and 6-0-1 in their last seven when favored In NFL betting. They’ll head into next season having won 15 of 16 at home in Sunday day games.
49ers Get It Done When It Matters
San Francisco had some late-season hiccups, including a surprising home loss to the Falcons in Week 16 and two last-minute victories over the Cardinals. But it continues to get it done. The 49ers improved to 6-1 ATS in its last seven against above-.500 teams. The favorite has now won eight-straight Niners games — not the best omen for the Super Bowl (SF is +1).
Over Is The Way
The Over hit in both conference championship games — again. The previous five NFC Championships had averaged a whopping 54.6 ppg, and none have been lower than 45 points. Sunday’s Packers-Niners game produced 57 points. The average AFC title game over the past five seasons is a hefty 51.0. The Titans and Chiefs combined for 59.
The Over hit for the 10th time in 11 Titans day games and for the eighth time in 11 Packers-49ers showdowns.
… And Streaks End
Titans Runs End
Tennessee had been red-hot since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB and Derrick Henry became the offense’s heavy focal point. The Titans led the Chiefs 17-7 but couldn’t keep up in a 35-24 loss (at +7). They had covered the spread in their last five road games and seven of nine overall.
Packers-Niners Flip Roles
The Packers were 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with winning records. The 49ers were just 7-19-1 in their last 27 as the favorites. Those trends didn’t keep up on Sunday in San Francisco’s 37-20 win.
Standout Pass-Catchers Take Backseats
Chiefs star TE Travis Kelce had scored a TD in four straight games after a KC home win. Titans WR A.J. Brown had TDs in four straight day games. 49ers TE George Kittle had scored in four of seven and Kendrick Bourne had TDs in three of four day games vs. the NFC. All were shut out on Sunday.
RBs Raheem Mostert and Aaron Jones accounted for six of the seven TDs in the NFC game. The recession-proof Tyreek Hill had two TD receptions for the Chiefs.
Best Pick Of Conference Championship Weekend
49ers (-7.5) over Packers
?The NFC Championship turned into a Raheem Mostert clinic ?@RMos_8Ball— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2020
? 220 rushing yards on 29 carries
? 4 rushing TD
? Single postseason game rushing record set @49ers | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/4GhTrWk5L9
Quarterback was the only position the Packers seemed to have an advantage over the 49ers. But Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight passes because San Francisco’s run game — namely Raheem Mostert — was unstoppable. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have much of a chance against a healthy Niners defense. It was 27-0 at halftime, made closer at the end after the 49ers took the pedal off the gas.
Worst Pick Of Conference Championship Weekend
Packers-49ers Under 45.5 Points
I had a strong feeling the Packers wouldn’t score a ton of points — they were dominated by this Niners defense just a few weeks ago and were averaging just 21 ppg the last eight weeks. But the Packers simply couldn’t slow down Mostert. After building their massive lead, the Niners allowed the Packers back into the game late with lax defense. Give Rodgers an inch and he’ll take a yard. The Over cashed by the third quarter.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are two to consider for the Super Bowl before they move:
49ers-Chiefs Over 53.5
The O/U exploded after being posted closer to 51 on Sunday evening. Super Bowls have generated major points lately, and these teams trend that way, as well. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last six games and 7-2 in Chiefs games when they face above-.500 teams.
Chiefs -1 over 49ers
The Chiefs defense has its issues, but it hasn’t mattered during Kansas City’s dominating eight-game win streak. The Niners have been awesome in the postseason as well, but go against Patrick Mahomes at your own risk at this point. If you’re going to back Kansas City, waiting may cost you a point. The numbers should shift as early money comes in, so be sure to check out the latest Super Bowl Odds.