NFL Week 10 Betting Takeaways: Backed Teams Go Down Again
Bookies.com NFL betting expert Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
For the second week in a row, the NFL flipped the switch and did the opposite of what the trends said it would. And once again, the most-backed teams didn’t come through for their backers.
No team was listed on more tickets at William Hill sportsbooks than the Kansas City Chiefs, who at kickoff were -6.5. The Chiefs were getting a whopping 90% of backing for their game against the Tennessee Titans, yet lost straight up, 35-32.
No team had more dollars on it than the Los Angeles Rams, who were -4.5 at the Steelers. The Rams got 82% of the money on that one, but they, too, lost straight-up as a favorite, 17-12.
The top-six most-backed teams went 2-4 ATS.
Here’s a look back at Week 10 and a quick look ahead to Week 11:
Streaks Live On ...
A group of ravens is called an unkindness. The Bengals saw way too much of the Ravens on Sunday, a 49-13 drubbing at home. The Bengals have now lost 11 in a row, and that’s not the only trend to continue.
Cincinnati totals have hit Over in seven of the last nine games. On the O/U of 44 Sunday, Baltimore hit that by itself. Lamar Jackson scored a TD for the fourth game in a row, and this one was a doozy:
Bucs continue on
The Buccaneers edged the Cardinals 30-27 in an entertaining matchup, but Arizona got the cover at +5.5. It’s the 10th time in 11 games Tampa Bay failed to cover as a home favorite the week before facing a division rival. Tampa takes on New Orleans in Week 11.
It marked the seventh game in a row the total has hit Over in Buccaneers games. It also dropped the Cardinals to 0-8 in their last eight road games against the NFC South.
The Bears held off the Matthew Stafford-less Lions for a 20-13 win at Soldier Field, snapping a four-game losing streak. What it didn’t snap was the favorite winning when these teams face off. Whichever team has been favored has now won 22 of the last 23 matchups.
The game also continued a divisional trend of low-scoring action. The 33 points finished well under the total, marking the 11th time in 12 games the Under has hit between two NFC North teams.
... And Streaks End
Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards, three TDs and no INTs, but the Chiefs still lost to the Titans. That reversed two long-running trends.
The Chiefs had straight-up won 16 of their last 17 day games. They had also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 road games against AFC competition.
The Falcons were the biggest underdog of Week 10 (+13.5) but they crushed Survivor Pools everywhere with a straight-up, 27-9 shocker at New Orleans.
The Saints had won 19 of their last 22 home games before falling very flat on Sunday. They also owned an impressive prop stat, winning seven of the last eight first quarters when favored against NFC opposition. The game was tied 3-3 after one quarter before Atlanta outscored New Orleans 23-6 the rest of the way.
Trends Blown Up on SNF
The Vikings downed the Cowboys 28-24 in a marquee Sunday Night Football showdown. Minnesota had failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven primetime games before getting it done as a three-point underdog in Big D. It also snapped a nine-game streak of the favorite winning on Sunday Night Football at Dallas.
The Under had hit in nine of the Cowboys’ last 10 SNF matchups, but the 52 points cruised over the 48-point total. The game also snapped Ezekiel Elliott’s four- game TD streak on Sundays and Stefon Diggs’ four-game TD streak on Sunday nights.
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Best Pick Of Week 9
Cardinals (+4.5) over Buccaneers
I took the Cardinals at +4.5, but kickoff the number was at +5.5. Either way, Arizona hung tough and took a lead in the fourth quarter before Jameis Winston tossed his first TD with 1:43 left in a 30-27 Tampa victory. The Cardinals have now covered in five of their last six games and five of six on the road. Tampa hasn’t covered the spread in more than a month and is on a 1-6 ATS home slide.
Worst Pick Of Week 9
Falcons-Saints Over 51.5
Atlanta’s previous four games had averaged 61.5 ppg, while the Saints had hit 55-plus points in half their games. The Over has hit in four of the Falcons’ last five road games. But the Falcons’ defense decided this would be the week to show up, holding Drew Brees and Co. without a single TD. Atlanta held up its end of the scoring bargain with 26 points. It was my only Best Bests loss of the week.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 11 before they move:
Saints (-5) at Buccaneers
New Orleans had covered in five straight games before Sunday’s dud against Atlanta. It will be motivated to get back to business, and against the last-ranked pass defense. The Buccaneers aren’t the covering type at home. They snapped a four-game skid on Sunday but were aided by a pair of critical Cardinals red-zone turnovers.
Patriots (-3.5) at Eagles
Both teams are coming off the bye, but New England has covered in five- straight following its off week. The Pats have had two weeks to fix what happened against the Ravens. The last two times the Eagles were underdog by 3 or 3.5 points were three and four weeks ago, in blowout losses to the Cowboys and Vikings.
Raiders (-10) vs. Bengals
Let’s keep picking on the winless Bengals, who are seemingly getting worse as the season rolls on. They covered in two of their first three games but haven’t come close to doing so the last three weeks. The Raiders are on a 5-1 ATS run, are coming off the bye week and are home.
Make sure to check out our NFL expert picks every week for best bets and predictions for every NFL game against the spread, O/U and moneyline.
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