NFL Week 11 Betting Takeaways: Ravens Crush Spread Again
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Bookies.com NFL betting expert Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
The Baltimore Ravens have covered the spread in just five of their 10 games. But when they cover, they cover with gusto.
The Ravens have won the five games they also covered by an average of 30 points per game. Against the spread, they’ve eclipsed the lines in those games by a ridiculous 26.9 ppg.
Even considering the five non-covers, the Ravens lead the NFL in against-the-spread margin in all games at +9.9 points. The San Francisco 49ers, who are 5-4-1 ATS, are No. 2 at +9.2 ppg, with the New England Patriots +7.1. No other team eclipses +3.1 ppg.
The Ravens’ ATS margin will be tested on Monday Night Football in Week 12 when they take on the Los Angeles Rams, who are tied for the best ATS mark at 7-3.
Here’s a look back at Week 11 and a quick look ahead to Week 12:
Streaks Live On …
Rally Does Wonders
The Vikings came back from a 20-0 deficit to shock the Broncos 27-23 on Sunday. They became the first team since 2015 to rally for a win after being down 20 at halftime. The last 99 teams facing such a deficit had lost.
That streak ended but others continued. Minnesota has now won eight of nine home games, Dalvin Cook scored a TD for the fifth-straight game at home, and despite the crushing defeat, the Broncos did cover the spread (+10.5) for the fifth day game in a row.
Niners Flip the Switch
Depending on what side of the spread you were on — and whether it was 11 points as it was earlier in the week or 9.5 at kickoff — determined your mood after the epic last-play bad beat:
The 49ers had failed to cover the spread in 17 of their last 20 games as the favorite. They’ve now won seven straight Sunday games and the Over is 6-1 in their last seven matchups with NFC West opponents.
Sunday Night Continuations
The Rams’ 17-7 win over the Bears on Sunday night was not pretty, but the outcome wasn’t unexpected for those who considered the trends. The Rams have now covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games against the NFC, while the Under moved to 7-0 in Bears games against the NFC West. Oddly, the favorite has won in Chicago’s last nine games played in Week 11.
Todd Gurley scored a TD, the fifth game in a row against the NFC North he’s found the end zone.
… And Streaks End
Reversals Of Fortune
If there’s one thing you could count on over the last month-plus, it’s a Dolphins cover and a Bills game hitting the Under. But neither of those things took place when the teams face off Sunday in Miami. The Bills won 37-20 — eclipsing the 40.5-point O/U by more than two TDs. It was the first time the Over hit in seven Bills road games. Buffalo’s win also marked the first time in six games the Dolphins (+6.5 on Sunday) didn’t cover.
Jets Soar Over DC
The Redskins were favored by 1.5 points at kickoff, but did not come through, trailing 31-3 at one point. New York had lost 14 of its last 15 road games before dominating in the nation’s capital. The Jets had also failed to cover the spread in 10 straight November road games.
At least Washington snapped its own unimpressive streak:
Derrius Guice's receiving TD snapped a 16-quarter stretch of no touchdowns by the Redskins.— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 17, 2019
That streak was the longest by any team since the 2000 Ravens went 21 quarters without a score in 2000 — and that team went on to win the Super Bowl.#NYJvsWAS | #HTTR
Bengals Bucks Trends
The Bengals couldn’t pull out their first win, instead falling 17-10 to the Raiders, the 16th loss in a row as an underdog. But the game also ended a 6-1 run of Oakland covering the spread at home (Cincy +13). Cincy’s slow start also ended – it had failed after one quarter in eight of the last nine against the AFC in November but led 7-0 here.
Best Pick Of Week 11
Jets (+1) over Redskins
The line actually shifted to +1.5 by kickoff, presumably with the expectation something would click with Dwayne Haskins and the Washington offense. It didn’t happen, as the Jets led 31-3 in the fourth quarter in an easy 34-17 win. Sam Darnold went off for four TDs and 293 yards.
Worst Pick Of Week 11
Panthers (-5.5) over Falcons
I’d been wary going against the Falcons, because they can erupt for 30 points on any given week. But the spread seemed too skewed after Atlanta’s impressive victory over the Saints, and the Panthers’ could-have-won-but-lost effort at Green Bay. But the Falcons’ switch remained flipped. Matt Ryan looked like his old self, even without Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman, and the defense didn’t allow a TD for the second week in a row.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 12 before they move:
Giants-Bears Under 40.5
The Bears have been an Under machine, with their last four all finishing under the total and none totaling more than 36 points. Giants games have been hitting over lately, but they’ll struggle to score against Chicago’s tough defense at Soldier Field, and the Bears have managed 21-plus points just twice.
Falcons (-4) vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay hasn’t covered the spread in six games. Atlanta seems to be a new team, crushing the Saints and Panthers the last two weeks by a combined 55-12. Matt Ryan has to be licking his chops against the Bucs’ porous pass defense.
Dolphins (+10.5) at Browns
Miami had covered the spread in five straight before Sunday’s 17-point loss to the Bills. But the Dolphins have still covered three in a row as a double-digit underdog. The Browns have scored 21, 19, 19 and 13 points the last four games. Asking them to cover 10-plus points is a lot to ask.
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