PGA Picks This Week: 2026 U.S. Open Predictions, Best Bets & Longshots at Shinnecock Hills
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Last Updated: June 16, 2026:
Here are expert 2026 U.S. Open picks, predictions and odds for Shinnecock Hills for the week of June 18–21, 2026.
The U.S. Open this week (June 18–21) returns to Shinnecock Hills for the sixth time overall and the first time since 2018, when Brooks Koepka held off Tommy Fleetwood at one of the most difficult courses for even the best players in the world.
While the course conditions will naturally dictate how the third major of the year plays out, the top favorites at sportsbooks and prediction markets like Kalshi all arrive with their own storylines in the balance.
Scottie Scheffler is chasing the career Grand Slam for the first time. Speaking of the Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy looks to win his first U.S. Open since 2011.
Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau arrive on Long Island with LIV Golf's future in doubt.
Cam Young and Chris Gotterup have already posted career-best seasons. Can either add a major to their CV?
JJ Spaun defends, and Aaron Rai just broke through at the PGA Championship at Aronimink. Will another first-timer join the club? Or will one of Scheffler, Rory, Rahm, Bryson or Matt Fitzpatrick add another to the collection?
This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.
Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.
Now let's pick 'em!
Who Will Win the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock? Outright Picks
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Cameron Young +2050
Young showed the world he can close out big tournaments by winning THE PLAYERS. He has repeatedly shown he can handle the moment in big tournaments with a T3 at the Masters in April and a T4 at last year's U.S. Open. He is perhaps the most accurate long driver on Tour -- an important consideration this week. And lastly, this is like a home game for the native New Yorker from nearby Westchester County. The raucous Big Apple crowds will be behind him.
Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Scottie Scheffler +455
Going out on a limb here, I know. But Scheffler has been slumping lately (only by his own standards), with just one win this year. I think that makes it the perfect spot for him in the major he's probably had his eye on most this year with the chance to complete the career slam. Add in his tee-to-green prowess with a blustery week on tap, and I expect him to be the last one standing.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Justin Rose +5300
As I went back through the 2018 Open here at Shinnecock, Rose lived in the top 5 all week before a final round 73 dropped him to T10. He should've won this year's Masters and posted a top 10 at the PGA Championship (despite all the skepticism around his McLaren irons). I'll back Rose again at the year's 3rd major where he'll know the course better than most.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Tommy Fleetwood +2250
Finished T2 at the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock -- the last time the championship was contested here -- finishing behind only Brooks Koepka in brutal scoring conditions. His ball-striking and wind game have made him a US Open mainstay (T4 at Erin Hills 2017, multiple top-10s since) and his 2026 form has been steady all season. Priced identically to Matt Fitzpatrick at +2250 despite Fitzpatrick having no Shinnecock track record, which is the cleanest precision-and-pedigree play in the +2000-2500 tier.
David Rumsey, FOS - Jon Rahm +1050
After finally regaining his form in a major championship at Aronimink, Rahm has a wonderful opportunity to keep that momentum going at Shinnecock. He finished second in his most recent LIV appearance at Valderrama. At his best, the Spaniard has the perfect blend of power and control to contend at this U.S. Open, which will be at the mercy of the USGA setup team. A third major for Rahm would certainly make his future even more interesting, as uncertainty continues around LIV.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +455
The third major of the year sets up to be a war attrition as golfers battle both one of the most storied courses in the United States and wind gusts all weekend. Course knowledge and comfort is key here. Scottie Scheffler enters the U.S. Open chasing a career Grand Slam. Four “good” rounds will do it this year.
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Who Will Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open?
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Justin Thomas +185
I don't play Thomas very often in big tournaments. His driving accuracy, while significantly improved this season, is still a huge risk on narrow fairways. And the U.S. Open usually has narrow fairways. But not this one. Even on tighter tracks, Thomas is finding ways to succeed this season -- and that's been after starting late following offseason back surgery. He finished top-10 at both THE PLAYERS and PGA Championship. Thomas is elite around the green, and that could prove vital this week. His top 10 price is +376 and I like that too.
Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Wyndham Clark +162
Clark is on a similar heater to the one he was on just three years ago when he won at L.A. Country Club. Clark should be able to take advantage of Shinnecock's wide fairways and ride his white hot putter to a solid week.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Tyrrell Hatton +154
Hatton is coming off a win at the most recent LIV Golf event, posted a T3 at Augusta and T4 at Oakmont last summer. Oh, and T6 at Shinnecock in 2018. He's a much more well-rounded player now and keeps knocking on the major door.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Tyrrell Hatton +154
A perfect three-major flush of US Open–style fit: T6 at this exact Shinnecock setup in 2018, T4 at Oakmont in 2025, and T3 at the 2026 Masters this April. He's posted eight career top-10s in majors and just won at LIV Andalucia in his last start before this. Plus money on a player with this venue's track record in a market that doesn't require him to win is the cleanest T20 number on the board.
David Rumsey, FOS - Tyrrell Hatton +154
I honestly wouldn’t mind taking Hatton to win at Shinnecock, but I really like his value as a Top 20 pick. He just won LIV’s last event in Spain a couple weeks ago, and had a T3 result at the Masters (although he missed the cut at the PGA). If the conditions get tough and Hatton can keep his composure, a high finish is well within reach.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Brooks Koepka +145
Brooks Koepka left Shinnecock Hills with the U.S. Open trophy the last time this course played host to the national golf championship (2018). His game suits this course and the expected challenges with this weekend’s weather. If his putter cooperates and he isn’t hampered by his left hand injury, expect to see him on the first or second screen of leaders Sunday afternoon. Plus, this price offers terrific value.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See http://BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and Expire in 7 Days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
2026 U.S. Open First Round Leader Picks
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Chris Gotterup +3800
It's supposed to be very windy on Thursday, especially in the afternoon. I'm looking for a good player going out early. Gotterup has a 7:30a ET tee time. He's ranked 13th on Tour in first-round scoring average. He's one of the longest drivers and a good putter. In his past four majors, Gotterup put up two top-10s and two top-25s.
Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Tommy Fleetwood +3400
Obviously has what it takes to go low here via his 63 in 2018. That MC at the PGA is likely an outlier, as Fleetwood has otherwise put together a very solid year.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Russell Henley +5100
Tied for the first round lead here back in 2018. Like Hatton, returns to Shinnecock a much better (and accomplished) player. Last seen putting up a nuclear back-nine to win Colonial in a playoff over Eric Cole. Also contended at Masters back in April.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Cameron Young +2700
Has the earliest tee time among the realistic contenders at 7:30 AM Thursday, putting him squarely in the morning wave that gets calmer conditions before any Atlantic wind picks up. Ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season and is the hottest player in golf coming off two 2026 wins (The Players, Cadillac Championship). At +2700 you're getting a top-5 player in the world at the FRL premium that DraftKings normally reserves for tier-three contenders.
David Rumsey, FOS - Justin Thomas +4800
Thomas has been streaky this year returning from injury, but he showed great form at the PGA Championship, even threatening (kind of) to win with a brilliant final round. I’m not sure about his four-round prospects, but I can absolutely see him carding a low number on Thursday.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Tommy Fleetwood +3400
Tommy Fleetwood carded a 7-under 63 in his most-recent U.S. Open round at Shinnecock Hills, falling just one shot short of Brooks Koepka eight years ago. Fleetwood’s game was honed in the same wet and windy conditions we may see on Thursday. The 2025 FedEx Champion missed the cut in the PGA Championship, but hits Long Island with top-five finishes in the Truist and Memorial at his back. T11 last week at the RBC Canadian Open.
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2026 U.S. Open Longshot Picks
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Maverick McNealy +7800
McNealy at this price really stands out. I ranked him in the top-25 of my RotoWire U.S. Open Power Rankings. He has nine top-25s in 14 starts this season, including T18 at both the Masters and PGA Championship. He was just 10th at the Memorial. McNealy averages almost 310 off the tee while ranking in the top-20 in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting. That's pretty sweet.
Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Cameron Smith +13000
Though he didn't win, the Smith we saw on the weekend at Aronimink reminded me of the player who was contending in and winning majors before he joined LIV Golf. An Aussie who's known to play well in windy conditions on links-style courses, I like his chances to hang around this week.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Adam Scott +7600
I can't resist. Was right there last summer at Oakmont before fading on Sunday. Better 2026 than you think: Top 5s at Riviera and Doral; top 15s at Bay Hill and Memorial. The harder the course plays the more I like the veteran Aussie.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Harris English +8400
Owns one of the most credible US Open résumés in the entire field -- finished 3rd at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, 4th at Winged Foot in 2020, and T8 at The Country Club in 2022. His precision iron play and grind-it-out short game are the exact toolkit a brutal US Open setup demands, and at +8400 you're getting the field leader in US Open cuts made at a triple-digit number.
David Rumsey, FOS - Joaquin Niemann +7000
The golf world has been waiting on Niemann to break through at a major for years now. He earned his spot in this U.S. Open by way of one of LIV’s exemptions at the end of last season. All the cards would have to fall his way for a victory at Shinnecock, but if he finds his form, I do like his ball-striking ability, which would certainly be key as the course becomes more difficult.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Jordan Spieth +8000
Jordan Spieth could well find a path to victory here, if . . . His big “ifs” include a return to form as the top-tier links player he once was. He’s a grinder, which will be necessary this weekend. Shinnecock Hills’ wide fairways help here, as well, and Spieth can stay in this thing as long as his irons cooperate. Otherwise, he won’t be swayed by the big stage.
U.S. Open Winners by Year: Recent Champions, Courses and Odds
Brooks Koepka is our most recent winner at Shinnecock, though Bryson DeChambeau has won 2 of the last 6 U.S. Opens. Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm and Wyndham Clark are also threats at books like BetMGM to capture their second U.S. Open, respectively.
| Year | Winner | Course | Winning Score | Pre-Tournament Odds |
| 2025 | J.J. Spaun | Oakmont Country Club | 272 (-8) | +12500 (125/1) |
| 2024 | Bryson DeChambeau | Pinehurst No. 2 | 274 (-6) | +2000 (20/1) |
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | Los Angeles Country Club | 270 (-10) | +6000 (60/1) |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick | The Country Club (Brookline) | 274 (-6) | +2500 (25/1) |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm | Torrey Pines (South Course) | 278 (-6) | +1000 (10/1) |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | Winged Foot Golf Club | 274 (-6) | +2200 (22/1) |
| 2019 | Gary Woodland | Pebble Beach Golf Links | 271 (-13) | +8000 (80/1) |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | 281 (+1) | +2500 (25/1) |
| 2017 | Brooks Koepka | Erin Hills | 272 (-16) | +4500 (45/1) |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | Oakmont Country Club | 276 (-4) | +1200 (12/1) |
2026 U.S. Open: Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 U.S. Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open is played Thursday, June 18 through Sunday, June 21, 2026. Thursday and Friday are the opening two rounds, the cut falls after Friday's play, and the final two rounds run over the weekend, with the champion crowned Sunday evening.
Where is the 2026 U.S. Open being played?
The 2026 U.S. Open is being played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, on Long Island. It is the sixth time Shinnecock has hosted the championship, joining a rotation of the most historic venues in American golf.
What is the par and yardage at Shinnecock Hills?
Shinnecock Hills plays as a par 70 measuring roughly 7,440 yards for the 2026 U.S. Open. The William Flynn-designed links sits on sandy, wind-exposed terrain, and firm-and-fast conditions are expected to be the course's primary defense.
Why is Shinnecock Hills so difficult?
Shinnecock is difficult because of firm, fast turf, swirling coastal wind, and greens perched above run-off surrounds that repel anything but precise approaches. For 2026 the fairways are being played at their full original width -- averaging more than 40 yards -- but they sit at angles to the tee, so position still matters more than raw distance.
Who won the 2025 U.S. Open?
J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont, capturing his first major title. He sealed the win with a dramatic 64-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to finish 1-under par, and he arrives at Shinnecock Hills as the defending champion.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open at +455 (as of June 16, 2026). He is the only player with single-digit odds at most sportsbooks, followed by Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Cameron Young.
What are the odds to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
The top of the 2026 U.S. Open odds board, as of June 16, 2026, looks like this: Scottie Scheffler +450, Rory McIlroy +980, Jon Rahm +1300, and Cameron Young +2000. Odds shift daily as money comes in, so confirm the latest numbers at your sportsbook before betting.
Can Scottie Scheffler complete the career grand slam at the 2026 U.S. Open?
Yes -- a win at Shinnecock Hills would complete the career grand slam for Scottie Scheffler, who already owns the Masters, PGA Championship and Open Championship. Fittingly, Sunday's final round falls on his 30th birthday, adding a storyline that has made him the clear betting favorite.
How much is the 2026 U.S. Open purse and winner's share?
The U.S. Open purse was $21.5 million in 2025 with a $4.3 million winner's share, the largest in major championship golf. The USGA typically announces the official 2026 figures during tournament week, and the total is expected to hold or increase.
How can I watch the 2026 U.S. Open on TV?
The 2026 U.S. Open is broadcast on NBC and USA Network, with streaming on Peacock, USOpen.com and the USGA app. USA carries Thursday's opening round and early weekend coverage, while NBC airs the marquee Friday, Saturday and Sunday windows, including featured-group streams.
Has the U.S. Open been played at Shinnecock Hills before?
Yes -- the 2026 championship is the sixth U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, with previous editions including the famous 2004 and 2018 stagings. The club is one of the five founding members of the USGA, giving it some of the deepest roots in American championship golf.
Who are the best value picks and sleepers for the 2026 U.S. Open?
Beyond the favorites, the strongest value at Shinnecock tends to come from accurate iron players and proven scramblers who thrive in firm, windy links conditions rather than pure bombers.
Is Jordan Spieth playing the 2026 U.S. Open, and what are his chances?
Jordan Spieth is in the 2026 U.S. Open field and profiles as a live longshot if his iron play sharpens. A three-time major winner and natural grinder, Spieth fits Shinnecock's wide-but-angled fairways and big-stage demands; consistent ball-striking is the swing factor in whether he contends.
Past PGA Picks of 2026 Season
Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable
Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.
Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.
Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.
Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.
David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.
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