PGA Picks This Week: 2026 BMW Championship Predictions, Best Bets & Longshots for FedExCup Event
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Last Updated: August 19, 2026:
Here are expert 2026 BMW Championship picks, predictions and odds for the week of August 20–23, 2026.
The BMW Championship heads to St. Louis this week for the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler coming off a huge win in Memphis (that our Jared Kimble and Len Hochberg were all over).
This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.
Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.
Now let's pick 'em!
Who Will Win the 2026 BMW Championship?
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Sam Burns +1750
Yeah, there's a good chance Scottie Scheffler wins again this week. But what fun would it be picking him two weeks in a row? In Burns' last four starts, he's finished 2-T12-3-T3. Three podiums in four weeks is Scheffler-like. Burns ranked seventh in the field last week in SG: Approach and third in SG: Putting. He couldn't keep up with Scheffler in large part because he couldn't keep his drives in the fairway. Of course, he'll need to do far better there this week.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Si Woo Kim +2700
Si Woo has had a career year but is in danger of going without an actual win. Last week at St. Jude was his third runner-up of the season and 11th top 10. I think he finally sees one go through the hoop this week in a strong but limited field.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Ludvig Aberg +1700
Bellerive's 7,500-yard setup is prime territory for one of the longest and most accurate drivers on tour, and his ball-striking profile is exactly what dominates on longer parkland courses. Continues to trend upward in 2026 with multiple deep contentions, and this tier of event (no cut, top-50 only) rewards elite ball-strikers who don't have to grind through weekend variance. Fair number on a player who could easily be the second-shortest price on the board.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Scottie Scheffler +305
We’ve entered the zenith of the Scottie Scheffler Era. This is 1962 Arnie. This is 1972 Jack. This is 2000 Tiger. Betting is all about finding value, so says none other than Billy Walters. This board is loaded with value. Rory McIlroy at +1600. Xander Schauffele at +1800. Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. Etc. But even Billy knows that you can’t stop the tide. Scheffler is the tide until the last putt at East Lake. And these days, +305 is a pretty good value on someone dominating the Tour like none other since Eldrick T.
David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Matt Fitzpatrick +2400
The elder Fitzpatrick brother has plenty of motivation to play well this week as he looks to fend off any challengers for his 2nd place standing in the FedExCup rankings, which will pay out a $13 million bonus if he holds onto it through the end of the BMW Championship. Aside from his missed cut at The Open, the Englishman has stayed in pure form this summer and should be primed to add another victory to his splendid 2026 season.
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Who Will Top 20 at the 2026 BMW Championship?
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Alex Smalley +126
Looking to find someone with plus odds for a top-20 in a 50-man field isn't easy. But … we all remember Smalley almost winning the PGA Championship and winding up second. You have to do more -- much more -- to be ranked 23rd in the point standings at this juncture of the season. Smalley is coming off a tie for 24th at Southwind, which, granted, wouldn't be a big deal this week. But he was also seventh at the Wyndham the week before. Smalley is ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting and greens in regulation.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Alex Noren +125
The 12-time winner on the DPWT is coming off finishes of T18 at The Open, T7 at Wyndham and T3 last week at St. Jude. 5th in SG: Putting all season.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jake Knapp -110
Long hitter whose game translates perfectly to Bellerive's 7,500-yard setup, and he's been quietly one of the more consistent playoff performers with a T7 at TPC Southwind last week. Ball-striking profile fits parkland courses where you have to hit fairways and greens, and a no-cut event with a 50-man field gives him a real path to top-20. Even money on a player rising fast in the FedExCup standings.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Rickie Fowler -110
In case you’re wondering, Scheffler is -50000 to finish in the top 20. That means you’d have to bet $500 to win $1. Given that this field features the top 50 players on the Tour, there’s limited value here. Rickie Fowler has a habit of sticking around near the second page of the leaderboard in these big events. He’s worth a minor investment to keep it interesting this weekend.
David Rumsey, FOS - Adam Scott +108
The Australian has back-to-back Top 12 finishes in his most recent two starts. Although he just narrowly sits inside the Top 30 of the FedExCup standings (he's 27th) that will make it to East Lake, his spot at the Tour Championship is essentially guaranteed. Scott didn't make it to the Tour Championship, or BMW, last year.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See http://BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and Expire in 7 Days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
2026 BMW Championship Longshot Picks
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Ryan Fox +13000
I'm not sure anyone outside of 30-1 will win this week. So if we're gonna go for a long shot, let's go way long. Fox finished an uninspiring T58 last week. But in fairness, it was his first start since winning the Open Championship and he might've needed a tournament just to get back off Cloud 9. He sits 25th in points, so it's almost certain he'll survive into the Tour Championship. That means he won't be playing under pressure. Fox's two best clubs tend to be his driver and putter, but he'll certainly need to do a better job of getting the ball in the fairway than he did last week and, really, all season.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Gary Woodland +7800
Woodland enters the week in the precarious No. 31 spot - which would be first man out for the Tour Championship. T10 at the 3M Open in his second to last start. Played decent last week before a Sunday 74. He'll be sending it to make it to East Lake.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Justin Rose +7000
Right at the +7000 longshot threshold with a game built on the exact skills Bellerive rewards — elite iron play and putting under pressure. Former US Open champion with playoff-event pedigree and a solid 2026 season, and at 46 years old he's proven he still has multiple wins left in him. +7000 gives you a proven big-event closer at a real longshot price.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Alex Noren +7000
The value this week comes on quality players who have monstrous odds. Among them is Alex Noren at +7000. He’s coming off a T3 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and T7 at the Wyndham. And he posted a top-10 finish in his most-recent BMW appearance in 2024.
David Rumsey, FOS - Gary Woodland +7800
Woodland may feel like he's playing with house money at this point of the season, so why not add another W to his storybook 2026 following his comeback from brain surgery?
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See http://BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable and Expire in 7 Days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
2026 BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks
Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Michael Thorbjornsen +3800
It may be hard for Thorbjornsen to keep it going for four days against this elite field. But he usually starts fast, ranked 11th on Tour in first-round scoring, with rounds in the 60s in 7 of his past 8 starts, including last week's 65. He didn't break 70 the other three days and wound up T47. But the belief here is that the larger greens of Bellerive will help Thorbjornsen. Last week, he ranked 53rd in SG: Approach and 33rd in greens in regulation. His driving accuracy was spot-on, and his putting was on point.
Thomas Leary, Bookies - Wyndham Clark +2700
After two straight missed cuts, Clark bounced back for a T5 last week.
Jared Kimble, Bookies - Cam Young +2200
Ranks 4th in projected total strokes gained per DraftKings' model (+1.67) and boasts a perfect 100% cut rate this season across 11 top-10s. Coming off a strong finish at the Open Championship where he was in contention through the weekend. +2200 is FRL pricing typically reserved for guys with far worse cut floors than a 100% mark.
Bill Speros, Bookies - Xander Schauffele +2000
Xander Schauffele comes off a T7 in Memphis and a 2nd-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s done well in the BMW, despite struggling the last time it took place at Bellerive in 2018. Xander remains perhaps the most unflappable player on Tour. Nerves won’t be a concern here, especially on Thursday. He’s among those that could push Scheffler, given his ice-cold demeanor.
David Rumsey, FOS - Sam Burns +2150
The heartaches just keep piling up for Burns, after another less-than-stellar performance playing in the final group on a Sunday. But I think he can keep up the superb starting form and jump out to an early lead at Bellerive to set himself up for another interesting weekend.
2026 BMW Championship: Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 BMW Championship?
The 2026 BMW Championship is played Thursday, August 20 through Sunday, August 23, 2026, at Bellerive Country Club. As the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, it is a no-cut tournament — all 50 qualifiers play all four rounds, and the top 30 in the standings afterward advance to the Tour Championship.
Where is the 2026 BMW Championship being played?
The 2026 BMW Championship is being played at Bellerive Country Club in Town and Country, Missouri, in suburban St. Louis. The long, tree-lined Robert Trent Jones Sr. design stretches past 7,300 yards and most recently hosted the 2018 PGA Championship.
Who won the 2025 BMW Championship?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, closing at 15-under par for a two-shot victory over Robert MacIntyre. He returns in 2026 as defending champion.
Is Scottie Scheffler playing the 2026 BMW Championship?
Yes — world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the FedEx Cup points leader and defending champion, having opened the playoffs with a runaway win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He is the overwhelming betting favorite at Bellerive.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 BMW Championship?
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite for the 2026 BMW Championship at around +305 (as of August 19, 2026). Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns head the chasing pack on a board where no one else is close.
How much is the 2026 BMW Championship purse?
The 2026 BMW Championship features a $20 million purse, with a winner's share of roughly $3.6 million plus a large haul of FedEx Cup points that shapes seeding for the Tour Championship.
How can I watch the 2026 BMW Championship on TV?
In the United States, the 2026 BMW Championship is broadcast across ESPN, Golf Channel and CBS, with streaming on PGA Tour Live via ESPN+ and a Paramount+ simulcast of the CBS windows. ESPN and Golf Channel carry early-round coverage Thursday and Friday, with CBS airing the weekend windows Saturday and Sunday.
Past PGA Picks of 2026 Season
Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable
Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.
Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.
Thomas Leary is our senior editor who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.
Jared Kimble is our media manager who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.
David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.
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