Tom Brady Departure Jolts Futures Betting Odds Around NFL
No NFL franchise can compete with what Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have done in their 19 full seasons together.
Since 2001, the Patriots have won six Super Bowls, nine AFC championships and 17 AFC East division crowns.
But the reign of terror is over, or at least Brady’s part in it. Brady announced Tuesday morning he wouldn’t be returning to New England. On Friday Brady announced on his Instagram account that he had signed a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Without their Hall of Fame quarterback and with severely limited salary cap space, the Patriots’ NFL futures betting landscape is different than it has been in years.
That is to say, the Patriots aren’t anywhere near the top of it.
Tom Brady had an incredible 20-year run with New England 👏— ESPN (@espn) March 17, 2020
🔺 6x Super Bowl winner
🔺 4x Super Bowl MVP
🔺 3x Regular-Season MVP
🔺 2nd All-time pass yards
🔺 2nd All-time pass TD
🔺 1st All-time wins
🔺 14x Pro Bowl Selection pic.twitter.com/ktbLTGat7X
With the likely rise of Patriots odds in NFL betting comes the fall of other teams best suited to take advantage.
AFC East Wide Open Race
The Patriots have won the AFC East a ridiculous 11 years in a row and 17 of the last 18 seasons. Even without Brady, New England is still the favorite to take its 18th division in 19 years, including at DraftKings sportsbook.
Tom Brady has changed the odds in the AFC East. pic.twitter.com/sUq7LV9eUM— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) March 17, 2020
The New York Jets (+900 to win the division) and Miami Dolphins (+1000) are on upward swings. Sam Darnold and Le’Veon Bell lead a New York offense that showed promise at the end of the season. In Miami, the Dolphins have added considerable help on defense and have three first-round picks in April’s NFL Draft. Still, there’s reason to believe neither is ready to hang with the Brady-less Pats for a full season. New England, after all, still has a top-five defense if it keeps the core of it intact.
The Buffalo Bills (+175) are a different story.
Buffalo was a playoff team last year with a defense that rivaled the Pats in points allowed. Buffalo also has a young, potential-laden offense led by QB Josh Allen and RB Devin Singletary. This week’s acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs makes the Bills offense even stronger. Buffalo looks like a solid value as the No. 2 team on the board.
AFC Full of Contenders
The Patriots were upset by the Tennessee Titans in the NFL playoffs this year, but they’ve still been the AFC’s Super Bowl representative in nearly half of the seasons over the past two decades.
The rise of the Kansas City Chiefs behind Patrick Mahomes and the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson pushed New England into, at best, a three-way war for AFC supremacy in the 2019-20 season. That’s no longer the case.
Now there are two teams atop the conference heap. The Chiefs are +300 to win the AFC, the Ravens +400 at Unibet. The Patriots remain a respectable +750, but the conference is a traffic jam of potential spoilers, with 10 of the 16 teams at +1800 or lower. The Pittsburgh Steelers come in at +1000, with the return of two-time Super Bowl champion QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Bills (+1300), Colts (+1400), Titans (+1400) and Browns (+1500) are close behind.
Super Bowl 55 Odds Shift
The Patriots went from +1500 to +2000 in Super Bowl betting odds at PointsBet, the ninth-lowest odds in the field. The Chiefs (+600), Ravens (+700) and San Francisco 49ers (+850) are the Big Three on the board.
The line has since dropped for several teams, including the two teams most considered in line to secure No. 12 for 2020. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fallen from +4000 to +2500 at PointsBet, the Los Angeles Chargers from +5000 to +2500. The Bills’ chances have gone down to +2500 as well, from +4000, likely thanks to the higher chances to get back to the playoffs in addition to taking the AFC East.