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24 Most Intriguing Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets To Back For Chiefs vs. 49ers

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 17 mins

24 Most Intriguing Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets To Back For Chiefs vs. 49ers

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Online sportsbooks have embraced the phenomenon of the Super Bowl, creating thousands of hundreds of prop bets to go along with the usual spread, total and moneyline wagers.

The Super Bowl is the No. 1 betting event of the year in the USA, every year, and this year will be no different with the marquee showdown for Super Bowl 58 between Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, set for Sunday, Feb. 11 in Las Vegas. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson hit on over 60% of his NFL picks over the last four seasons. In addition to his game picks, he has scoured the piles of props at all available betting apps.


RELATED: Super Bowl 58: Betting Guide, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today


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Most Intriguing Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets

1. Opening Kickoff – No Touchback

Odds: +250 at BetMGM

The last two Super Bowls have resulted in touchbacks. A massive 73% of all kickoffs this season ended in a touchback, in part because teams now get the ball at the 25-yard line. But whether we get a touchback here may be determined by the opening coin flip. Harrison Butker ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards per average kickoff, and 87% of his kicks resulted in a touchback. Jake Moody came in at 28th in average distance, and only 60% of his kicks were brought out to the 25. You know the returner will want to get the Super Bowl going. We’ll take the big odds on a return and hope the Niners kick off. 

2. 49ers First Drive – Punt

Odds: +130 at DraftKings

In the NFL, 44% of all opening drives ended in a punt, 41% in scores, and the rest in turnovers and missed field goals. In the five opening drives for the 49ers and Chiefs opponents, three have resulted in punts, the other two in field goal attempts. It’s not a ton of value, but there is some in these plus odds. 

3. 49ers First Drive Punt/Chiefs First Drive FG

Odds: +1000 at FanDuel

KC has been great to start games, but it’s developed a habit of stalling in the red zone. The Niners ranked 7th in red-zone TD percentage. Mahomes can get his team down the field, then ultimately get the ball to Butker’s big leg. Worth a flyer at these odds.

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4. Highest-Scoring Quarter – 2nd Quarter

Odds: +165 at BetMGM

The Chiefs ranked No. 2 in the NFL at 9.7 points averaged in the second quarter, the 49ers ranked fifth at 8.7. For each team, the second was their most productive quarter. Combined, they averaged 18.4 in the second quarter; the fourth quarter was second with a combined 11.3 ppg. The second was also, by far, the most points allowed for each team, and combined. 

5. SGP: Christian McCaffrey Scores/49ers Win Game

Odds: +162 at DraftKings

McCaffrey is a whopping -220 to score a TD, which sounds about right; he scored in all but three 49ers games this season. But we’ll parlay it with the Niners straight-up winning the Super Bowl, a wager that’s -125 at many sportsbooks. A single-game parlay gets you odds at +162; doing the same bet through the sportsbook props choices offers odds of +120. 

6. Total Jersey Numbers of TD Scorers – Over 121.5 

Odds: -150 at DraftKings

This adds up the jersey numbers of those who score touchdowns. Since we’re leaning Over on the game overall, we’re expecting at least five TDs to score. If one of them must go to Travis Kelce (No. 87) or George Kittle (85), the rest should take care of itself. 

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7. Longest Field Goal Yardage > Total Points

Odds: +120 at DraftKings

Harrison Butker was 5-for-5 on kicks over 50 yards, with a season-long of 60. He hit a 62-yarder last year. Niners rookie Jake Moody was 3-for-4 on 50+ kicks, including a 57-yard bomb. Both teams won’t hesitate to try a long one if the situation presents itself, especially indoors. Only one 49ers game over the last five has gone over 45 points, only one of the last five Chiefs have gone over 42 points. This is a bit of a hedge bet, in case the defenses do their jobs. 

8. Nick Bosa – Record A Sack

Odds: -111 at FanDuel

Bosa has only two sacks in his last five games, though they were both in the NFC Championship. Bosa put a bug in people’s ears, though, quipping “They hold a lot” when asked about the Chiefs’ offensive tackles. The refs may be on high alert, and if Bosa is correct, that could alter KC’s effectiveness. Despite the late-season drought, Bosa has 1.5+ sacks in five of the last 11 games. He seems to be a man on a mission. 

9. Christian McCaffrey, 35+ Rush Yards Each Half

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

Though McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing this season, he’s been far more dangerous in the first half of games. McCaffrey has averaged 55.3 ypg in the opening halves, and 35.9 in the latter halves. The Chiefs are giving up 61.4 rush yards in the first halves, and 51.9 in the second. We’ll bank on CMC having his usual strong first half, and getting more second-half carries if the Niners hold a late lead. 

10. Both Teams To Score Over 20 Points – Yes 

Odds: -105 at DraftKings

Both teams have scored 20+ points in the 49ers’ last three games. Neither team did so in the AFC Championship, but both did in KC’s win at Buffalo the week prior. It feels like the first to 30 wins this game, not to 20. 

11. Highest Red Zone TD Percentage – 49ers

Odds: -135 at DraftKings

The Niners scored TDs on a whopping 68.5% of their red-zone trips, the best percentage in the NFL. Their road number wasn’t a big dip, ranking third at 65.7%. The Chiefs settled for field goals, a lot, scoring six on only 52.7% of trips inside the 20 – just 51.4% outside of Arrowhead. 

12. Rashee Rice, Over 6.5 Receptions 

Odds: -114 at DraftKings

Rice has been the key go-to on the outside for Mahomes and the Chiefs pass attack. Over the last nine games, he’s had nine or more targets in six of them, and seven-plus receptions in six. The Niners haven’t been spectacular at stopping opposing TEs, so look for a larger effort on their part there. Someone will have opportunities on the outside, and Rice is the most likely benefactor. 

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13. Isiah Pacheco, Under 65.5 yards

Odds: -110 at FanDuel

The three of his last six games, Pacheco has averaged 6.5, 7.2, and 6.1 yards per carry. In the other three, 2.8, 3.7 and 2.4. In 17 games, he’s finished over 65 yards nine times, but two of those were in the 66-68 range. He had 15 carries for 76 yards in last year’s Super Bowl, but when he’s held to under 17 carries, he’s hit over 66 yards just twice in 11 games. The Niners rank No. 3 vs. the run. 

14. Christian McCaffrey, Over 88.5 Rushing Yards 

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

This number is only slightly above the 86.9 rushing yards allowed per game by the Chiefs all season. McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing, is above the curve. Only once in the last eight games has he finished under 90 yards, and that was in a breezy win over the Commanders. In the other seven games, he’s averaging 108.3 ypg. KC has allowed over 90 rush yards in 15 of 20 games this season. Barring injury, McCaffrey should get close to 100% of the carries for the Niners

15. Most Rushing Yards – Christian McCaffrey

Odds: -210 at FanDuel

McCaffrey is going to be a bellcow for the 49ers, in part to take the pressure off Purdy, but also because it’s a recipe for success for the team. The team is 13-0 when he gets over 15 attempts. We’re also expecting KC to put the ball in Mahomes’ hands more than usual. 

16. Most Passing Yards – Brock Purdy

Odds: +120 at FanDuel

OK, it sounds crazy, until you look at the numbers. Purdy threw for more yards than Mahomes this season (as well as more TDs, and fewer INTs). He also had bigger individual games. Purdy had five games with at least 310 yards, Mahomes just one. Purdy had just five games with under 250 pass yards, Mahomes had 10 of them. Purdy is more of a big-play hunter, too. 

17. Most Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce

Odds: +260 at FanDuel

Kelce has been Mahomes’ man lately, gaining 116 yards on 11 receptions vs. the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and 12 catches for 146 yards in the previous two playoff games. He went 6-81 in last year’s Super Bowl and 10-133 in the one prior. Neither team has a superstar WR to rely on, so why not a tight end? 

18. Travis Kelce, Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at FanDuel

See above. Kelce has gone over 70 receiving yards in 12 straight postseason games. The Niners are mediocre, to begin with in covering tight ends. Kelce should get a ton of targets and make good on more than enough of them. 

19. Travis Kelce, Over 6.5 Receptions

Odds: -150 at DraftKings

Of those aforementioned 12 games, Kelce finished 10 of them with at least seven receptions. We’ll ride the future Hall of Famer on several props. 

20. Chiefs Attempt Onside Kick – Yes

Odds: +750 at FanDuel

Nobody’s attempting an onside kick in the middle of the game. But what if the Niners hold a 10-point lead late, and the Chiefs cut a deficit to force a one-score game? We’re banking on SF playing well and a specific scenario playing out, but these odds are worth another flyer. 

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21. Harrison Butker, Over 7.5 Points

Odds: -110 at ESPN BET

We’ve touched on the Chiefs’ red-zone issues. That leads to more points for Butker, who is 33-of-35 on field goals and hasn’t missed an extra point all year. He has nine-plus points in four of KC’s last seven games. 

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22. Fourth Quarter, 3-Way Result – 49ers ML

Odds: +145 at BetMGM

The second half has been San Francisco’s time to shine, but the fourth quarter especially, and the opposite is true for KC. On the season, the Niners rank No. 1 in the NFL in fewest fourth-quarter points allowed and No. 3 in scoring. KC’s defense is a solid No. 3, but no team scored fewer points over the final 15 minutes. 

23. Halftime/Fulltime – Chiefs/49ers

Odds: +700 at FanDuel

The 49ers haven’t played a full four quarters in the postseason, but they’ve come out strong in the second halves. The Chiefs are not a good fourth-quarter team this season. Instead, they’re gaining early leads and hanging on. Let’s see both those trends continue here and beat the odds. 

24. Super Bowl MVP – Brock Purdy

Odds: +225 at BetMGM

Despite being the quarterback on the favored team, Purdy (+225) isn’t the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. That’s because of McCaffrey (+475). But we’re going with Purdy. First, we’re on the 49ers winning the game. Second, KC’s struggles in the red zone against opposing receivers, adding TD potential for the QB. If the Niners are going to win the Super Bowl, Purdy must perform. Getting at QB at Super Bowl MVP odds above +200 doesn’t come around often. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.