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Super Bowl 58: Betting Guide, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 8 mins

Super Bowl 58: Betting Guide, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today

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The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet in Super Bowl 58 on February 11 in Las Vegas as this season’s NFL betting schedule comes to a close. The 49ers are 2-point or 2.5-point favorites after their decisive win over the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game on January 28. The line is depending on the book.

The Kansas City Chiefs are aiming to repeat as Super Bowl champions. They won their 4th AFC title in 5 seasons Sunday by beating the host Baltimore Ravens. The game is a rematch of Super Bowl 54, won by the Chiefs 31-20.

RELATEDYes, Taylor Swift Will Be Able To Attend The Super Bowl

The line in Sunday’s Super Bowl 58 opened at DraftKings, FanDuel and elsewhere with the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites. It was quickly bet down to 1 point within 24 hours as early money flooded in on Patrick Mahomes’ team. 

The money line started with the Chiefs +120 and the 49ers -135. It had moved to +100 and -120 respectively. A week later, is has moved back to 2 at most sites and 2.5 at FanDuel. 

The total has held at 47.5 after a quick open at 48. 

The Chiefs were the preseason favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions, opening up at +600. The 49ers opened at +700. Both teams were among the top 5 favorites all season. 

Mahomes is now 12-1-1 as an underdog against the spread and 10-3 outright in games where his team was getting points. He is also 14-3 in the postseason and has only lost to teams led by Tom Brady (New England and Tampa Bay) and Joe Burrow. The Chiefs are 12-7-1 ATS and 14-6 outright. But they have covered in 5 straight games. 

And they are in the throes of a mini-dynasty. Since 2018, the Chiefs are 75-24 SU, 14-3 in the postseason, and have won the AFC 4 times and the Super Bowl twice. 

Chiefs Take Swift Road To Las Vegas

Super Bowl 58: Betting Guide, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today 1

The presence of Taylor Swift at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas to watch her boyfriend Travis Kelce could deliver a record rating to CBS this year for Super Bowl 58. 

The Divisional Round game between Kansas City and Buffalo saw over 50 million viewers. More than 55 million tuned into the AFC title game and 56 million watched the NFC game.

TV ratings have been up all season across the board. Coincidentally or not, sports betting is now legal and active in 38 states. 

“There's no proof of concept on that, but that's been my opinion for many, many years. And so now that we're in multiple states and you're seeing market share go up, why is market share going up in the NFL? Same product. Must be wagering, right?” said DraftKings Director of Race and Sports Johnny Avello

Avello is also an apologetic Swiftie – at least when it comes to the NFL

“I'm very happy for Taylor Swift because Taylor Swift has brought some of the Swifties to the NFL and I'm grateful to her for that,” Avello said. 

How The 49ers & Chiefs Got Here 

Super Bowl 58: Betting Guide, Predictions & Best Bets To Back Today 2

Brock Purdy, the final player chosen in the 2022 NFL Draft, was unflappable against the Lions as the 49ers erased a 17-point deficit before winning 34-31 in the NFC title game. While the 49ers are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since Super Bowl 54, they are just 9-9 ATS this season. That’s despite their 13-5 record straight up. 

In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs led from wire-to-wire in their 17-10 win over host Baltimore. The Ravens peaked at -5 hours before kickoff, as public and sharp money flooded in on the home team. The number eventually settled at the Ravens -4.5 at kickoff. 

None of that mattered as Mahomes continued his dominance against playoff teams not led by Tom Brady. And his monster run as an underdog. Mahomes is now 10-1-1 as an underdog, and 9-3 straight up. The 4.5 was the biggest number at his back since Week 2 of the 2018 season. 

The Chiefs opened the season at +350 to win the AFC and were as high as +425 before Week 17, after peaking at +200 several times this season. 

Super Bowl 58 Picks 

Sunday, February 11

Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) vs San Francisco 49ers (NFC), 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas 

TeamsWagerBest Bet
Chiefs vs 49ersSpread Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
Chiefs vs 49ersMoneyline Chiefs (+115)
Chiefs vs 49ers Total Under 47.5 Points (-108)

Super Bowl 58 picks are subject to change.

Buzz: The Chiefs won this matchup 4 years ago in Super Bowl 54. The 49ers have retooled since, finding a diamond in the rough with Brock Purdy at QB – the final player taken in the 2022 draft. 

They’ve also added Christian McCaffrey, a dominant force running the ball. And shored up their offense and defensive lines. The Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points in Super Bowl 54 as then 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo went 3 for 11 in the 4th quarter and posted a 2.8 QBR over the the game’s final 15 minutes. 

Purdy silenced the doubters against Detroit. But the 49ers caught 3 major breaks in terms of a passed-up field goal, a fumble deep inside Detroit territory, and a once-in-lifetime deflected catch. The Chiefs play mistake-free ball. They did not turn over the ball against Baltimore. And Mercole Hardman, who committed the Chiefs’ lone turnover against Buffalo, had zero targets against Baltimore. 

Both teams have exceptional coaching staffs. And both have ridden solid offensive lines, running games, and defenses to get here. But the Chiefs and Mahomes hold the edge in terms of having been in the Super Bowl and won it. All it will take is perhaps one mistake in this game, which is setting up to be low-scoring, close affair. 

The Chiefs are money when getting points – having won 6 straight outright as underdogs - and have covered in 8 of 9 games against teams with a winning record. We grabbed KC when they opened at +2.5 and +115. 

Best Bet: Chiefs +2.5 (-115) FanDuel 

Best Bet: Chiefs ML  (+115) BetMGM 

Best Bet: Under 47.5 Points (-108) with DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.