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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 5 mins

Projected AFC West QB Props For 2022 After Russell Wilson Trade

Projected AFC West QB Props For 2022 After Russell Wilson Trade

The AFC West is loaded.

We won’t know if the AFC West is the best division in the NFL for another 10 months.

Right now, it’s hard to make the case that it isn’t. With that in mind, Bookies.com oddsmakers have set projected passing totals for each of the four starting QBs in the division: Patrick Mahomes II, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr and newcomer Russell Wilson.

The Denver Broncos traded for Wilson in a blockbuster deal that shipped QB Drew Lock, two other players and four draft picks to the Emerald City. Wilson had to agree to the deal and Denver was the lone city on his wish list out of Seattle. The deal for Wilson comes after the Broncos nabbed Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers' offensive coordinator in Green Bay, as their new head coach.


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The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West six straight times. They face a legitimate threat from the other three teams given the offseason moves made by the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. And the continued improvement of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Wild, Wild West Stacked With QB Talent

Projected AFC West QB Props For 2022 After Russell Wilson Trade 1

Of the top five NFL passing leaders in 2021, three return to AFC West in 2022. Herbert of the Chargers (2nd) , Mahomes of the Chiefs (4th), and Carr (5th) of the Raiders. Wilson finished far down that list at No. 21. He also missed three games. And he was playing for Pete Carroll. That never helps. The 4 AFC West QBs have 16 Pro Bowl selections between them. Wilson leads with eight.

Tom Brady led the NFL in passing but is now “retired.”

Allegedly.

Brady’s former offensive coordinator in New England, Josh McDaniels, is the new head coach in Sin City.

And this week the Chargers locked down WR Mike Williams for another three years.

As we noted: “The AFC West is loaded.”

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AFC West QB Over/Under Totals

What can NFL futures bettors expect this upcoming season from these top guns?

Here are our projected NFL odds on the passing yards and TD totals for each of the four starting QBs in the AFC West for 2022. These odds are compiled using a Bookies.com analysis of their 2021 statistics, 2021 projected passing totals, and adjacent moves made by their respective teams this offseason.

Each QB is listed with his team, projected 2022 passing totals, TD totals, and 2021 stats.

Projected 2022 AFC West QB Totals

QB Team 2022 O/U YP 2022 O/U TDs2021 YP 2021 TDs
Justin Herbert LA Chargers 5,000.537.5501438
Patrick Mahomes II KC Chiefs 4,900.538.5483937
Derek Carr LV Raiders 4,850.529.5480423
Russell Wilson Denver Broncos4,150.028.5311325

The NFL betting price on each wager would be -115. Odds above are projected and not currently available at legal sportsbooks or betting apps. This page will be updated should odds become available.

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Breaking Down The Numbers

Projected AFC West QB Props For 2022 After Russell Wilson Trade 2

It might be surprising to not see major boosts in some of these numbers, especially with Carr.

McDaniels coaxed 3,801 passing yards out of rookie Mac Jones in 2021. But Carr threw 14 interceptions against just 23 TDs last year. Those numbers are unacceptable for a veteran, talented QB like Carr. At least in the eyes of McDaniels.

Even with Brady, McDaniels has long been hesitant to throw the ball inside the 10-yard line. His mastery in Las Vegas will be manifested in balancing the Raiders offense and using it to consume clock as much to score points.

Wilson has the most room to grow statistically, if he’s able to stay healthy for a full 17-game season. His 2021 numbers equate to 222.4 yards per game, or 3,780 over a full season. He will see a significant jump under the guise of Hackett and with a wider array of targets in Denver. He’s also moving from sea level to a mile’s worth of elevation for his home games. Expect lots of air beneath those passes.


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Herbert crushed his 2021 projections of 4,450.5 yards and 28 TDs. Bettors won’t get any such value on betting sites this season. Look for a good price on the under given the hype surrounding the Chargers offense.

That leaves Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City is on a troubling downward trend. The Chiefs slipped from Super Bowl champion to Super Bowl runner-up to AFC Championship runner-up in three years. Kansas City thought a rebuilt offensive line would be enough to get back to the Super Bowl.

A miraculous comeback over the Bills in the AFC Divisional Round was the stuff of NFL Legend. But Mahomes was smothered in the AFC title game by the Bengals. The Chiefs blew an 18-point lead at home. Cincinnati exposed Kansas City’s offensive weaknesses, holding the Chiefs to just three points in the second half and overtime.

The value with Mahomes, too, will lie in the under in yards passing and TDs. The Chiefs, at one point last season, had covered the point spread in just four of their previous 20 games. Bettors, oddsmakers, and the Chiefs eventually reversed the trend. Until the AFC title game.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.