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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins Picks & TNF Betting Predictions
Adam Thompson | 8 mins
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who came out of their bye week to edge the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9, host the Miami Dolphins for Thursday Night Football with a chance to maintain a sizeable lead in the AFC North.
The Ravens (6-2) have a 1.5-game lead in the divisional race, but all four teams in the North have winning records. The Dolphins are just 2-7, but they’re coming off a 17-9 win over the Texans, highlighted by a strong and the play of QB Jacoby Brissett, a last-minute starter for scratched QB Tua Tagovailoa.
The status of Tua (finger) for Week 10 likely won’t be known until gameday. Sportsbooks have Baltimore as a 7.5-point road favorite, this after most betting sites and some top betting apps, opened the game at Ravens -6.5.
Take a look at Ravens vs Dolphins odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Key Matchups
Mike Gesicki vs. Ravens LBs: Baltimore allows more yards to tight ends per game than any other team. Gesicki leads the Dolphins in receiving yards.
Marquise Brown vs. Dolphins DBs: Brown has secured six of Baltimore’s 13 pass TDs. Miami is tied for the most scores allowed to receivers this season.
Dolphins RBs vs. Ravens Front 7: Myles Gaskin leads a Miami rush game that’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry, third-worst in the NFL. That mark was 1.9 last week. The Ravens allow a modest 4.3 ypc.
RELATED: NFL Week 10 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game
5 Key Ravens vs. Dolphins Stats
55.1: The average QBR between Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa (55.3) and Jacoby Brissett (54.9), ranking 14th and 15th in the NFL. The “average” QB play is considered to be at 50.
158.3: The mark for a perfect QB Rating in a game – and the QB Rating for Lamar Jackson in his one start vs. the Dolphins. He went 17-of-20 passing for 324 yards and five TDs in a 59-10 win in 2019.
280.9: The passing yards allowed per game by the Dolphins defense. Only two teams allow more.
282.5: The passing yards allowed per game by the Ravens defense. Only Washington allows more.
600: The yards rushing so far for Lamar Jackson. The rest of the team has 693; together they make up the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL (161 yards per game).
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Ravens vs. Dolphins Weather Forecast
Miami is known for South Beach and sunny skies – Thursday’s game may paint a different picture. Temperatures close to 80 during the day give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a 70% chance of in-game wetness on the field for Ravens vs. Dolphins.
RELATED: NFL Week 10 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game
Ravens vs. Dolphins Player Props
Mike Gesicki, Over 4.5 Receptions
Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜
The Ravens are allowing 6.5 receptions per game, on 9.4 targets, and 74.4 yards to tight ends. Those all rank in the bottom-five in the NFL. Gesicki, the Dolphins’ receiving yards leader, is averaging 5.9 receptions over the last seven games.
Lamar Jackson, Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜
Jackson is the top rushing weapon in the NFL’s top rushing attack. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry and 75 yards per game on the ground. Miami’s run defense is far better than its pass D, but Jackson has 88 and 120 yards on the ground the last two weeks.
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Lamar Jackson, Over 200 Pass Yards & 50 Rush Yards
Odds: +100 at FOX Bet ➜
Sure, Jackson likes to run, and 50 yards is a very doable number to hit. But he’s also thrown for at least 200 yards in all but one game. Miami’s defense allows nearly 300 pass yards per game.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Moneyline
The Ravens are -335 on the moneyline, meaning a $335 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the Dolphins are at +245 (+100 wins $245 in profit).
We can try and find ways Miami has the edge here, including homefield. The Dolphins are typically more competitive when Tua plays (unless he’s facing the Bills). But if we’re being honest, picking Miami here is probably a waste of money. They finally got a win, but it was vs. the horrid Texans, and it was despite four turnovers. Lamar Jackson would make them pay far more for such shoddy play. Taking the Ravens here is the better choice at DraftKings.
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Ravens vs. Dolphins Point Spread
When it comes to NFL spreads, the Ravens have dominated their Thursday AFC counterpart, covering the spread in the last nine meetings. Since 2016, the teams have faced off three times. Baltimore has won all three, and the closest game in that span was 38-6.
We may not know who will be under center for Miami until just a few hours before kickoff, but it doesn’t matter. This game has mismatch written all over it. Miami’s 30th ranking in both offense and defense means it has no favorable matchup.
Baltimore does, and it begins at QB. Those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider laying the points, despite the hook at Caesars, with the road Ravens.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Totals
The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 46.5 points, a middle-of-the-pack number. It’s also a number that Baltimore surpassed by itself in the last meeting between these teams, a 59-10 beatdown in 2019.
We like the Under. Together, these teams average 44.8 ppg this season, but when you combined the Ravens’ ppg in road games and the Dolphins’ mark at home, that average plummets to just 38.5. The Under has been profitable on Thursdays. How the Dolphins hold up their end of the scoring bargain is tough to see, so the Under is a worthy part of your NFL betting Week 10 lineup at FanDuel.
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