The Saints are a confounding team. They’d given up at least 30 points in three straight games before pitching a shutout against the Raiders last week. This is Dalton’s team now, declared before last week, and the offense has been fine, averaging 29.6 ppg in his five games (17 ppg with Jameis Winston). 

The Ravens rank 28th vs. the pass and while they’re 3-2 in the last five games, the average margin of victory for all five is 3.4 ppg. With J.K. Dobbins hurt again and Gus Edwards hobbling for Baltimore, take the field goal with the home team and look for another close one. Take the Saints and the points. 

The Saints won’t have Michael Thomas for the rest of the season, while the Ravens won’t have RB J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards’ availability is in question. Top WR Rashod Bateman is also out. The Saints have the run game to at least slow down what Jackson and Baltimore want to do. 

The Over has been hitting in four of the last five Saints games, but Baltimore’s defense should be improved with a couple of starters returning from injury. Ravens games, meanwhile, are riding a 4-1 run on Unders. We believe both defenses have the advantage. Take the Under at this too-high line. 

The Saints are +120 on the moneyline, while the favored Ravens are at -130. If you believe in Lamar Jackson, the ML looks better than the spread. He’s 7-5 straight up in his last 12 games as an underdog and a stellar 10-2 ATS. 

Andy Dalton has been prone to mistakes, but mostly on the road. At home, he has just one INT so far. New Orleans can not only keep it close, it can win outright, especially given the offensive injuries on Baltimore’s side. It would be an upset, but there’s value on the Saints with these plus odds to get the W. 

Alvin Kamara, Over 4.5 Receptions

Odds: -145 at Caesars

This is a steep price, but it’s also a low total. Kamara’s receiving skills have flourished with Andy Dalton under center. After just five receptions in the first two games with Jameis Winston, Kamara has had at least six receptions in each of the last four games, including a 9-for-96 effort last week. The Ravens allow 6.3 receptions to RBs per game, the sixth-most. 

Lamar Jackson, Thrown an INT

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Jackson hasn’t tossed a pick in two games, and the Saints have just two picks all season, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. But the Saints won’t rush Jackson – it doesn’t work. They’ll sit back and wait for him to make a mistake, and it only takes one to hit this prop. While Jackson hasn’t thrown an INT in two straight, he tossed at least one in each of the previous four.