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Eytan Shander for Bookies.com

By Eytan Shander | | 8 mins

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Predictions

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & Predictions

No lead is safe, and no hole is too deep, at least in the AFC North. The Steelers will try and forget their ugly loss to the upstart Bengals by hosting the Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore saw Lamar Jackson overcome four interceptions to beat Cleveland.

Most sportsbooks have Baltimore laying 4.5 points, so the Steelers aren’t even getting much in the form of a home-field advantage. While the line is on the shorter side of NFL spreads this week, bettors should take note of the low total of 44. The Steelers gave up 40+ points in each of their last two games.

The Ravens offense may have slowed down but taking on a weak Pittsburgh defense is just what they need to get right. If you are factoring in this game for your NFL picks the over 44 looks most appealing.

The Ravens look wildly inconsistent on offense – right down to their QB – but they have one of the best failsafe options in Justin Tucker. Kickers don’t move lines, but a leg like Tucker impacts NFL betting on shorter lines, especially that range between 4-6 points. We see missed kicks and missed XPs impacting key numbers, so accuracy may be the difference in a slugfest.

Take a look at Ravens vs. Steelers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.


Ravens vs Steelers Key Matchups

Lamar Jackson vs Steelers D: What’s so fascinating about Jackson is his uncanny ability to create a problem then rescue his team with a solution. He throws 4 INTs yet still makes enough plays to win the game, and we saw it earlier in the year against the Colts, too. Pittsburgh’s defense is hemorrhaging right now, and Jackson is more than capable of taking advantage.

Big Ben vs Ravens (non-existent) Secondary: The Ravens give up the most passing yards in the NFL and the Steelers have no choice but to throw the ball. Najee Harris is a bright young star but doesn’t have the OL to overcome the run game’s deficiencies.

Jackson Running vs Pittsburgh Run D: Don’t expect the Steelers to slow down Jackson on the ground, as they allow the fifth-most rushing yards each week in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jackson leads the league’s second-best rushing attack – despite losing their top two RBs at the start of the year.


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Ravens vs Steelers Key Stats

0: As bad as it’s looked for Pittsburgh over the last two weeks, they are still part of a division with zero teams having a losing record. Both the Steelers and Browns are .500 on the year. Pittsburgh could narrow the division lead to Baltimore with a home win.

2: Ben Roethlisberger has relied on the TE position a lot in the passing game but with Pat Freiermuth not expected to play with a concussion, and Eric Ebron on IR, the team is down to just two healthy TEs against the Ravens.

63.6: This is the difference in rushing YPG for each team. The Ravens are 2nd in the NFL with 150.7 rushing yards each week, while the Steelers are 28th overall, gaining just 87.1 YPG on the ground.

84.2: The Ravens run the ball exceptionally well, but they also stop teams on the ground at an equally impressive clip. The Ravens hold teams to just 84.2 rushing YPG, second best in the NFL.

32nd: If the Steelers are going to beat the Ravens it’s going to be in the air. No team gives up more passing yards each week than the Baltimore Ravens. They are last, giving up 292.2 YPG.

30: Lamar Jackson has been sacked 30 times in 10 games this season, compared to 24 QB sacks of Roethlisberger.


RELATED: NFL Week 13 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game


Ravens vs Steelers Player Props

Marquise Brown Under 67.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Brown is going to be the primary focus of the Steelers defense and the number is rather high for Brown, who shouldn’t see a ton of targets.

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Najee Harris O 55.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

The number is low for Harris because of two rough games in a row, but those were blowout scenarios – even though Pittsburgh came back late in the fourth quarter throwing the ball.

Diontae Johnson Over 6.5 Receptions

Odds: -110 at BetRivers

Johnson has gone over this number in each of the past three games. He's averaged double-digit targets in five of his last six games.

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Ravens vs Steelers Moneyline

The Ravens play here may be too steep for a lot of sports bettors as there isn’t any break at betting sites at -210. Baltimore needs the win to keep Pittsburgh at bay, but the Steelers have playoff hopes and possibly their season on the line.

It’s worth a half-unit on the Steelers with decent plus-money value, but they are still the worse team, especially when it comes to the ground games. Tread lightly with Pittsburgh or use Baltimore as a parlay piece.

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Ravens vs Steelers Spread

Baltimore comes off a brutal performance full of self-inflicted wounds and unforced errors. It limited the spread a little bit, favoring the Ravens a little more than a true line up to -7. The Steelers aren’t getting a big break here with the extra half-point/point on this spread, as it only comes into play with missed XPs and FGs, something that Baltimore is heavily insured against.

It’s rarely advised but this may be a rare opportunity to tease up a home dog 6 points, where you can get a little bit of a break on the return, combined with moving this line through two key numbers. Baltimore should return to a more potent offense against a Pittsburgh defense struggling to keep teams below 40 points.

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Ravens vs Steelers Total

This is all about the Steelers defense giving up massive yardage on the ground combined with the Ravens running the ball better than nearly everyone. There’s also the advantage the Steelers have throwing the ball, as the Ravens have the league’s worst pass defense.

It’s a strong recipe for big plays and points on the board, as opposed to a typical old-school AFC North battle. Expect points in this one.

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About the Author

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com
Eytan Shander
Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.