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Best NFL Over/Under Win Totals To Back With Minicamps Underway

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 11 mins

Best NFL Over/Under Win Totals To Back With Minicamps Underway

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The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone, most free agents have found homes for the coming year, and the 2023 NFL betting schedule has been revealed. Players are getting together for minicamps. 

It’s time to start considering myriad NFL futures options for the 2023 NFL season. There is everything from Super Bowl futures to individual player awards and much in-between. 

For now, however, we will be searching sports betting apps for value on win totals after examining the schedule. We’ve known the matchups and locations since the end of last season, now we can take into consideration the date and time these games will occur, which should help produce more-accurate futures bets. 

There are a few teams that could start hot with some relatively easy schedules, but there are also some teams that could struggle out of the gate. That, in turn, dictates how teams play down the stretch. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson reveals his five favorite NFL total wins futures for 2023. The NFL odds are via DraftKings.

RELATED: Best Bets + Predictions for NFL Week 1 2023

Best Win Totals To Bet Today

TeamOver/UnderBest Bet
Miami Dolphins 9.5 Wins Under (-120)
Baltimore Ravens9.5 Wins Over (-120)
Houston Texans5.5 Wins Over (-120)
LA Rams7.5 Wins Under (-140)
Philadelphia Eagles10.5 Wins Over (-150)

Miami Dolphins - O/U: 9.5 Wins

Miami went 9-8 last season, and that was with QB Tua Tagovailoa missing some or all of five games. The team went 1-4 in those games, so it stands to reason that if Tua remains healthy, Miami is better than 9-8. They had a solid offseason, too, highlighted by the addition of CB Jalen Ramsey. 

Six of their nine wins were by four points or less, and there are much tougher games on the slate in 2023. The AFC East pairs up with the NFC East – every team finished .500 or better last year. They’ll also get road games at the Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles and Ravens. Miami's overall schedule grades out as the second-hardest in the league, and the AFC East should be improved, too, with the Bills and Jets as legit contenders. 

Eight wins seems plausible, nine wins as well. Ten wins is a stretch. 

Pick: Under (-120)

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Baltimore Ravens O/U: 9.5 Wins 

How many games will Lamar Jackson play? That’s been the question the last two seasons, and the answer has been “12” – which isn’t good enough. What is good enough is the team around Jackson, with a revamped receiving corps, an elite rushing attack and a defense ranked top 10 overall and vs. the run last season. 

Jackson has played 15 games twice, winning 13 and 11 games. He played just 12 last year and still went 8-4. The schedule isn’t imposing by any means. The AFC North will be competitive, but most every game is winnable. Matchups with the NFC West should get them two more wins. Those eight games should account for 4-6 wins. Home games vs. the Colts, Lions, Texans and Rams should push them over the top with room to spare. 

Pick: Over (-120)

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Houston Texans O/U: 5.5 Wins

The Texans haven’t won five games since 2019, let alone the six needed here. But in a 15-minute span of the 2023 NFL Draft they added the face of the franchise in QB C.J. Stroud and the face of the defense in edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.

They also had a solid offseason, first by inking promising, defense-minded coach DeMeco Ryans from the 49ers, then adding talent to address some of the bigger issues. 

This team still isn’t playoff-level. But six wins? The AFC South offers two wins out of six games, with the building Colts, fading Titans and ascending-but-not-yet-great Jaguars. Home games vs. the Steelers, Saints, Buccaneers, Broncos and Cardinals are all at least competitive. Win three of those five and they’d need just one road win. At Carolina and Atlanta offer winnable games as well. 

Houston has ranked 30th or worse in yards gained and yards allowed in each of the last two seasons and still managed three wins and a tie. Expect a much better showing on both sides of the ball. 

Pick: Over (-120)

RELATED: NFL Week 2 Picks, Predictions + Best Bets

Los Angeles Rams O/U: 7.5 Wins

The Rams went all-in to win a Super Bowl and it worked. But the bill came due and it was hefty, as the aging, cap-wrecked Rams finished 5-12, a seven-game drop from the year before. QB Matthew Stafford got hurt, with the team going 3-6 after he went down. 

The team got worse this offseason, adding no impact players of note while losing CB Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins and LB Bobby Wagner to the Seahawks. Aaron Donald, the team’s biggest bright spot, nearly retired and may not have the heart anymore to be his usual dominant self, especially as he faces constant double-teams with limited help. 

The home schedule offers a few winnable games, with the Cardinals, Steelers, Commanders and Saints, and perhaps Browns. The road slate won’t be easy, with perhaps a sweep of the Cards, and a trip to the Colts looking best. If they win all those games, and there’s a real chance they don’t, that’s 6-7 victories.

Pick: Under (-140)

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Philadelphia Eagles O/U: 10.5 Wins

The Eagles won 14 games last season en route to an NFC title and Super Bowl berth. Somehow, they got better in the offseason by retaining key players such as C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox. They then added DL Jalen Carter, the most-dominant defensive player in the NFL Draft, edge rusher Nolan Smith, and traded for RB D’Andre Swift.

On both sides of the ball, it could be argued the Eagles might be slightly better, and they ranked No. 3 in yards gained and No. 2 in yards allowed. 

There are some tough games on the slate, including road games against the Chiefs, Jets and Cowboys, and home contests vs. the Bills and 49ers. But lose them all and there are 12 others to win. Chances are, they are not losing all of the aforementioned five. 

Pick: Over (-150)

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.