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Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today: AFC Championship Edition

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 10 mins

Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today: AFC Championship Edition

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The NFL betting schedule is down to the final four. The AFC and NFC Championship games are Sunday. In the AFC, the stars will be out in Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium. And we’re not talking about just Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

The No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens play host to Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Taylor Swift is expected to attend – just in case her beau and his team earn a trip to the Super Bowl. Jason Kelce could show up as well to chug beers shirtless. 

Weather is always a factor when NFL playoff games are played outdoors in the Northeast or Midwest. This week, the concerns won’t be cold and snow, but rather wind and rain. 

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s around 3 p.m. kickoff time. But the forecast calls for wind and rain. 

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NFL odds opened with the Ravens as 3-point favorites, but bettors have pushed up to -3.5, with some extra juice at -112 at DraftKings. You’ll definitely want to shop around if betting the spread, given the disparity in price across multiple books. The total has held at 44.5. 

Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets to back. 

Bookies.com Senior Betting Analyst Bill Speros gives his best player prop bets on sports betting apps ahead of the AFC Championship Game.

Best AFC Championship Player Props To Back

Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today: AFC Championship Edition 1

Here are our best AFC Championship Game player prop bets to back on sports betting apps today.

Chiefs QB Patrick MahomesOver 36.5 Pass Attempts -110 at DraftKings
Chiefs TR Travis KelceUnder 5.5 Receptions +105 at DraftKings
Chiefs RB Isiah PachecoOver 15.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Ravens QB Lamar JacksonUnder 28.5 Pass Attempts +100 at DraftKings
Ravens K Justin TuckerOver 1.5 Field Goals -125 at DraftKings

(The betting odds might have changed since the time of publication. For the most updated odds, please check the betting apps.)

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Over 36.5 Pass Attempts 

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

Best Bets: Patrick Mahomes may be forced to throw in this one of the Chiefs are sputtering with the run. He threw the ball just 23 times against Buffalo, but weather played a huge role in that, as did the Chiefs leading throughout the game. This number sits just below Kansas City’s average number of attempts (36.8) per game. The Ravens let opposing QBs thrown the ball, they just don’t let receivers get any yards after the catch. And if the Chiefs are trailing, especially late, Mahomes will be slinging it until the final gun. 

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, Under 5.5 Receptions

Odds: +105 at DraftKings

Best Bet: Shop around on this number. Travis Kelce delivered with two TDs against Buffalo, but he only had 5 catches. And his brother stole the show in the luxury suite chugging beers and holding up kids to see Swift. The Ravens will drape Kelce in this game. They love to shut down tight ends, allowing just 4.7 catches per game in that position. Mahomes is a master when it comes to finding the open man. It won’t be Kelce in this case. 

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco, Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Best Bet: Isiah Pacheco should get at least a dozen touches in this game, but they won’t all come as handoffs. With the Ravens putting their focus on Travis Kelce (above) and Rashee Rice, there will be options for Mahomes. After Mercole Hardman’s fumble against the Bills, it’s doubtful he’s going to have key role Sunday. Pacheco is a reliable ball carrier, and he’ll be the open option on easy swing passes, especially off play action. When Pacheco has had 3 or more catches this season, he’s averaged 21.4 yards in those 9 games. This line has been pushed down because Pacheco has had just one catch in his past 2 games. 

Best NFL Prop Bets To Back Today: AFC Championship Edition 2

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: Under 28.5 Pass Attempts

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

Best Bet: There are multiple ways to play Lamar Jackson in this game. The Ravens won’t rely on him dominating a passing game against a Mahomes-led offense. The Chiefs defense is the main reason why Mahomes is back in his 6th-straight AFC title game. But the Chiefs are vulnerable against the run. Kansas City gave up 72 yards rushing to Josh Allen, in large part because Willie Gay was out. Gay’s status for this week is uncertain, but he’s leaning toward playing. Still, Jackson has not gone over this number in the postseason since January of 2020. 

Ravens K Justin Tucker: Over 1.5 Field Goals

Odds: -125 at FanDuel

Best Bet: Death, taxes, Justin Tucker. He’s flat-out the most-reliable kicker in NFL history. Even with the expected windy and rainy weather conditions, or perhaps because of them, Tucker should get at least 3 tries to add 3 on the board. The Chiefs defense is stout in the Red Zone, allowing touchdowns 51.9% of the time. And Ravens coach John Harbaugh isn’t going to chance leaving 3 points on the field, unless it’s 4th-down and less than a yard or two.

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.