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Buccaneers at Patriots Picks & Predictions NFL Week 4 SNF

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 10 mins

Buccaneers at Patriots Picks & Predictions NFL Week 4 SNF

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The mantra “waiting all day for Sunday night” perhaps was never so accurate for NFL fans than it is for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season. Tom Brady, who guided the New England Patriots to six Super Bowl titles before winning one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, returns to Foxborough for Sunday Night Football to face Bill Belichick and his old team.

The Bucs have additional motivation after losing 34-24 to the Rams in Week 3. The Patriots, at 1-2, are still finding their way with rookie QB Mac Jones. Betting sites and most betting apps have Tampa Bay at -6 in the latest Buccaneers vs. Patriots NFL spreads range for this highly anticipated showdown.

Check out the latest Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds, betting lines, injury report and more.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Key Matchups

Tom Brady vs. Bill Belichick: Brady is the best QB in NFL history, Belichick one of the all-time masterminds of the game. He knows Brady better than anyone.

Bucs RBs in the pass game vs. Pats D: Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard have combined for 25 receptions through two games. New England ranks 13th in receptions and yards allowed to players out of the backfield.

Rob Gronkowski vs. NE LBs: Gronk has 16 receptions, fourth most among all tight ends so far. New England, through three games, has allowed just four receptions for 27 yards to TEs.

5 Key Buccaneers vs. Patriots Stats

0.7: Passing touchdowns per game average for the Patriots, so far. Only the Dolphins and Bears have thrown fewer than the two tossed by Mac Jones through three games.

2.04: The percentage of drop-back passes against the Buccaneers that have finished in sacks, the lowest number in the league. A whopping 10% of passes vs. New England’s D has ended in a sack.

16: The rush attempts per game so far for Tampa Bay, fewest in the NFL. The Patriots’ defense ranks only 24th vs. the run, so perhaps there is opportunity to add offensive balance.

180: The yards allowed through the air, per game, by the Patriots defense. That’s the second-lowest number in the NFL.

362: The yards thrown through the air, per game, by Tom Brady so far. That’s the second-most in the league, behind only Derek Carr.

RELATED: NFL Week 4 Odds & Analysis For Every Game

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Player Props To Back

Tom Brady, Over 304.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜

The Bucs have essentially handed the keys to Brady. He’s had 50-plus attempts in two of the Bucs’ three games, totaling 379 and 432 yards, and in the third he still passed 36 times for 276 and five TDs. They’re not going to take ball out of his hands in this emotional return. They’re going to let Brady do what he wants.

Mike Evans, Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜

Evans is the No. 2 receiver on the Bucs but he’s a top target lately, with 75 and 106 yards the last two games. No defense can concentrate on Evans with the other weapons on the field (including Antonio Brown, who returns).

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Brady 3 TDs & Rob Gronkowski 1 TD

Odds: +300 at FOX Bet ➜

Brady to throw over 2.5 TDs is posted at +125. Him and Gronk are going to put a stamp on this return to New England, we’ll take a nice odds boost for it to happen once in the end zone.

Damien Harris, Over 58.5 Total Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜

Harris has been less of a factor in each consecutive game, with just six carries for 14 yards in Week 3. But he rushed for 100 yards and 62 yards in the previous two games. He should be a bigger part of the pass game with James White out. The Bucs rank 28th vs. RBs in the pass game.

Damien Harris, Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts

Odds: -125 at BetMGM ➜

Harris had 16-plus carries in the opening two weeks before the wheels came off the gameplan vs. the Saints last Sunday. He is going to be a central player on this national stage if the Patriots are to compete here.

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Buccaneers vs. Patriots Weather Forecast

Sunday night in the Boston area offers a slight chance of rain, with low winds and temperatures in the upper 50s at kickoff. There is a 40% chance of precipitation throughout Sunday – a typical cool autumn evening in the northeast.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots Moneyline

When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, picking the team led by Tom Brady usually leads to success, especially when it comes to straight-up winning on the moneyline.

For Sunday Night, the Buccaneers are -260 on the moneyline, the Patriots are +210. Brady will be extra focused on this one, not just because it’s against his old team, but because Tampa is coming off a loss. No. 12 threw for 432 yards but just one TD at the end, outdueled by Matthew Stafford. The Patriots have a defense, and nobody knows Brady like Belichick. The Bucs’ moneyline price is a little too high, but we’re not picking against them, either.

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Buccaneers vs. Patriots Point Spread

The Buccaneers are favored by six points after opening at -5.5. Given that Brady has a penchant for not laying off the gas with a lead, it’s not a surprise that the Bucs had covered five straight before their Week 3 loss at L.A.

New England hasn’t been getting this many points in a home game in recent memory. But the Pats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a home underdog. If a top-five defense can keep Brady at bay, perhaps Jones can keep the game close. But I’m not betting on it. Tampa -6 is the better play. You can bet it at DraftKings ➜.

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Buccaneers vs. Patriots Totals

NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 49 points for Week 4 Sunday Night Football, down 1.5 points from the opening line. It depends which team you believe will set the tempo. Tampa Bay games have hit Over in six of the last seven as a road favorite, while the Under has hit in New England’s last five instances as the underdog.

But when it comes to picking a side to add to your Week 4 NFL picks, the Under looks better. Tampa’s defense has given up more points than expected so far, but the Patriots don’t have the horses of the Cowboys, Falcons or Rams. New England’s offense, meanwhile, may not be able to take advantage of any mismatches. Defense leads both sides this Sunday night. You can get U49.5 at -115 with FanDuel ➜.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.
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