For a team that’s situated so far north, there doesn’t seem to be an NFL club going south faster than the Buffalo Bills. Seen by many betting apps as a Super Bowl favorite, the erratic 7-5 Bills might end up in the fight of their lives just to make it to the postseason.

Even the oddsmakers are losing faith in Buffalo. Heading to Tampa Bay on Sunday to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers (9-3), the Bills are three-point road underdogs in the NFL picks.

Take a look at Bills vs. Buccaneers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Bills vs Buccaneers Key Matchups

Tom Brady vs The Bills: Welcome to Buffalo’s nightmare, the sequel. The Bills lost 14-10 last week to the New England Patriots. They’re now 4-16 in their last 20 games against the Pats. This week, it’s Buccaneers QB Tom Brady on the other side of the ball. Brady is 32-3 all-time vs Buffalo.

Brady vs Sean McDermott’s Defense: Even though he was 6-0 against the McDermott-coached Bills, Brady wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive. He actually threw more interceptions (5) than TDs (4) in those six games. Buffalo limited Brady to an average of 225.5 yards per game through the air.

Tampa Bay Passing Attack vs Buffalo Pass Defense: The Bucs are the NFL’s leading aerial attack, averaging 311.1 yards per game. Brady has thrown for an NFL-high 34 TDs. Buffalo is the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. The Bills are limiting teams to league lows in yardage (165.3 ypg) and TD passes (8).

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5 Key Bills vs Buccaneers Stats

32-3: Brady’s record against the Bills is worthy of reiteration, because it’s the most wins by a QB against any team in NFL history.

104: TD passes from Brady to TE Rob Gronkowski. They’ve connected 12 times against Buffalo, more than any other team.

3-0: Tampa Bay’s record against AFC opposition this season. It includes a 2-0 slate against the AFC East.

67-15: Brady’s record as a starting QB in December. That’s 15 more wins than any other QB since 1970.

30 or 16: The Bills have alternated scoring 30+ points and fewer than 16 points in each of their last 5 games.

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Bills vs Buccaneers Weather Forecast

The outlook for Sunday’s game at Raymond James Stadium is cloudy skies, 13 mph wind and a temperature of 70 degrees. Buffalo is 1-1 playing in Florida this season. The Bills won at Miami and lost at Jacksonville. They were 3-1 in warm-weather locales last season but just 2-4 over the three prior seasons.

Bills vs Buccaneers Player Props

Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski over 46.5 receiving yards

Odds: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook

Gronk averages 71.3 yards per game when facing Buffalo.

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Bills QB Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions

Odds: -150 at DraftKings

Allen has been picked off seven times over his last five games.

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Buccaneers QB Tom Brady under 314.5 passing yards

Odds: -140 at bet365

Brady averages just 247.7 yards per game through the air against the Bills.

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Bills vs Buccaneers Moneyline

The Buccaneers are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games. They’re 5-0 SU at home this season. Buffalo is 2-7 SU all-time at Tampa Bay. The Bills haven’t won there since 1991. Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last eight games when facing NFC opposition. The Bills are 2-2 SU over their past four road games.

Will the Bills who won 31-6 at New Orleans show up, or will it be the Buffalo team that lost 9-6 at Jacksonville? NFL betting is setting the Buccaneers as the -174 choice in moneyline wagering and that looks to be the play to make here.

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Bills vs Buccaneers Point Spread

This is just the second time all season that Buffalo is an underdog at betting sites in the NFL spreads. The Bills won outright 38-20, also as three-point underdogs, at Kansas City. Could they do a sweep of last year’s Super Bowl teams by overcoming the same point spread in Tampa Bay?

Neither the Buccaneers (6-6) or the Bills (5-7) are overly impressive against-the-spread teams this season. The Bills are 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to Tampa Bay. Lay the points and take the Bucs. You can get the Bucs -3 (-118) at FanDuel.

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Bills vs Buccaneers Totals

So much for Buffalo’s potent offense. The total has gone under in four of the Bills’ last six games. As well, the total went under in four of Buffalo’s last six games when facing an NFC South opponent. The under has also proven to be the winning play in five of Tampa Bay’s last seven games and in 12 of the Buccaneers last 18 games played during the month of December.

For this game, sportsbooks have set the total at 52.5 points. The over is 2-0 in Bills games this season when the total is 50 or more points. Tampa Bay is 4-4 in that scenario. Based on Buffalo’s recent woes, go with the under here. You can get Under 52.5 (-110) at BetMGM.

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