The Bills of this second half of the season haven’t been nearly as dominant as the one that opened 2022 with a flourish of dominating wins. They’ve covered the spread just once in their last four games. But they’ve handled the Pats, on a 3-0-1 ATS run in New England. 

For us, though, it’s about matchups right now. The Patriots don’t really have any. An offense predicated on the run may find issues vs. Buffalo’s seventh-ranked run D. The Bills are due for a bit of a breakout, but we think the defense leads the way. Take the Bills to cover, though it’s not our top play for Thursday.  

Bills games have had high totals, and the offense isn’t matching expectations. The Under has hit on the last six Buffalo road games, and the last four on Thursday Night Football. We know New England is a defense-first squad as well. 

The total of 43.5 points is by far the lowest this season for a Bills game. It’s actually the highest for a Patriots game since Week 5. With New England’s defense, especially in the red zone, and Buffalo’s own issues near the goal line, take the Under on betting apps. 

Buffalo is -215 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $215 wager on the Bills to win for a $100 profit. That sounds better than the +185 price for underdog New England, even in Foxborough. 

The Pats have struggled against above-.500 teams this season. In fact, they’re 0-3 following the Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings. Expect the Bills to escape with the road win here.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Over 62.2 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Bills are top 10 vs. the run but that’s going to be the Patriots’ strategy, run as much as allowed and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. Feeding Stevenson has been the key all season to New England's success. The team is 5-0 when he gets 15-plus carries and 1-5 when he doesn’t. With no Damien Harris, he should get closer to 20. 

Stefon Diggs, Longest Reception Over 26.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

In the last four regular-season meetings between these teams, Diggs has averaged 10 targets per game and 6.5 receptions and 93.3 yards. He’s also had receptions of 50, 41, and 26 in three of those games. 

Diggs has had at least one catch of 20-plus yards in every game and 27-plus in eight of 11, and in all but one road game. New England is merely average at limiting those chunk plays, so Allen-to-Diggs should find each other again for a long-distance connection.