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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds, Best Bets & TNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Odds, Best Bets & TNF Predictions

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AFC East rivals face off in a massive Thursday Night Showdown for both sides, as Mac Jones and the New England Patriots host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. 

Allen and the Bills (8-3) are tied atop the division with the Dolphins, while the Patriots (6-5) are clawing to get into the AFC Playoffs race with six games to go. If the postseason started today, they would be out. 

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Buffalo has won four of the five meetings since Tom Brady left New England, including a 47-17 rout last year in the playoffs. The road team is at -4.5 at online sportsbooks, with an Over/Under set at 43.5 points. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who is hitting on 63% of his NFL best bets the last six weeks – reveals his plays for the important AFC matchup. 

Bills vs. Patriots Point Spread Pick

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The Bills of this second half of the season haven’t been nearly as dominant as the one that opened 2022 with a flourish of dominating wins. They’ve covered the spread just once in their last four games. But they’ve handled the Pats, on a 3-0-1 ATS run in New England. 

For us, though, it’s about matchups right now. The Patriots don’t really have any. An offense predicated on the run may find issues vs. Buffalo’s seventh-ranked run D. The Bills are due for a bit of a breakout, but we think the defense leads the way. Take the Bills to cover, though it’s not our top play for Thursday.  

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Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under Best Bet

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Bills games have had high totals, and the offense isn’t matching expectations. The Under has hit on the last six Buffalo road games, and the last four on Thursday Night Football. We know New England is a defense-first squad as well. 

The total of 43.5 points is by far the lowest this season for a Bills game. It’s actually the highest for a Patriots game since Week 5. With New England’s defense, especially in the red zone, and Buffalo’s own issues near the goal line, take the Under on betting apps

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Bills vs. Patriots Moneyline Pick

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Buffalo is -215 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $215 wager on the Bills to win for a $100 profit. That sounds better than the +185 price for underdog New England, even in Foxborough. 

The Pats have struggled against above-.500 teams this season. In fact, they’re 0-3 following the Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings. Expect the Bills to escape with the road win here.

Best Bills vs. Patriots Player Props

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Rhamondre Stevenson, Over 62.2 Rushing Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Bills are top 10 vs. the run but that’s going to be the Patriots’ strategy, run as much as allowed and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. Feeding Stevenson has been the key all season to New England's success. The team is 5-0 when he gets 15-plus carries and 1-5 when he doesn’t. With no Damien Harris, he should get closer to 20. 

Stefon Diggs, Longest Reception Over 26.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

In the last four regular-season meetings between these teams, Diggs has averaged 10 targets per game and 6.5 receptions and 93.3 yards. He’s also had receptions of 50, 41, and 26 in three of those games. 

Diggs has had at least one catch of 20-plus yards in every game and 27-plus in eight of 11, and in all but one road game. New England is merely average at limiting those chunk plays, so Allen-to-Diggs should find each other again for a long-distance connection.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.