NFL Week 13 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets To Back: QB Carousel At Full Speed
Bill Speros | 33 mins
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By Week 13 of the NFL betting season, teams are usually set in terms of skill position players and trying to work out the best way to reach the postseason.
This season, multiple teams enter the final third of the season with questions at the game’s most important position. Among those teams chasing playoff spots, the New York Jets opted with Mike White over Zach Wilson. It paid off in Week 12. White delivered the goods against a Chicago Bears team that would have struggled against Michigan in the BigTen.
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The Jets have yet to say how long White will play over Wilson, but it’s certain that he will keep playing until he loses.
Then there’s the other Wilson – Russell. The Broncos are cooked, thanks in large part to Wilson’s terrible play this season. Russell Wilson was called out by lineman Mike Purcell mid-game in Sunday’s embarrassing 23-10 loss to Sam Darnold and the Panthers.
Neither Wilson nor head coach Nathaniel Hackett did anything about it. On the field or off it.
The Cleveland Browns welcome Deshaun Watson to their active roster this week after completion of his suspension. The Browns were all set to slide from Jacoby Brissett to Watson at QB. But Brissett complicated things by beating his former teammate Tom Brady and the Buccaneers 23-17 in OT.
The Browns rallied to tie the game with 19 seconds to play in regulation. It was the first time in 219 games in Brady’s career that his team lost a game in which it led by seven or more points entering the final minute.
The Green Bay Packers could be without Aaron Rodgers for an indefinite period. Rodgers, who was nursing an injured thumb, left Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia Sunday night with a rib injury.
Week 13 begins with the Bills visiting the Patriots on Thursday night. The Octo-Box returns Sunday at 1 p.m. ET with eight games in the early slot. FOX has a pair of regional games at 4:05 p.m. ET, while the national game on CBS features the Bengals playing host to the Chiefs. The Chargers-Raiders is the late CBS alternate game. The Colts visit the Cowboys Sunday night. On Monday night, the Buccaneers hope to avoid another December home shutout at the hands of New Orleans.
The Panthers and Cardinals are on the bye.
Now it’s on to our post-Thanksgiving Week 13 NFL picks to back on your sports betting app:
NFL 2022 Week 13 Picks
Oddsmakers on betting apps have set betting lines on Week 13. Here are our picks and best bets:
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2022 NFL Week 13 Best Bets To Back Today
Thursday, December 1
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
The Bills have scored 80 points in their past two games against the Patriots and have not punted. When asked about this on Monday, Bill Belichick noted that Buffalo did line up to punt once, but then converted on a fake. Ugh. The Patriots are still looking for justice after what was all-but universally panned as a blown call on Hunter Henry’s non-TD at Minnesota.
But the Patriots made multiple inexcusable mistakes in delivering their turkey on Thanksgiving night. Buffalo rolled the Lions earlier in the day. The Patriots need this win to have any hope of a playoff spot. The last time they beat the Bills, the Patriots ran the ball on 46 of 49 offensive snaps. Whatever works.
Best Bet: Patriots +5.5 (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook ➜
Sunday, Dec. 4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Falcons are still in the hunt to win the NFC South. A win this week and loss by the Buccaneers to the Saints on Monday night, would push the Falcons into first place with just five games to play. The Falcons are among the most consistent inconsistent teams in the NFL. They lost last week. So look for a solid performance at home against a Pittsburgh team coming off a short week.
Best Bet: Falcons Moneyline (-125) with Caesars Sportsbook ➜
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Two teams that would happily forget Week 12. While the Broncos continued to stumble and bumble in Charlotte, the Ravens lost a stunner in Jacksonville to the Jaguars. Even the great Justin Tucker missed on what would have been a 67-yard game-winning field goal. The Broncos and Panthers hit the under on a total of 35 points in Week 12. Can history repeat itself in Week 13?
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Best Bet: Under 38.5 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook ➜
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Aaron Rodgers owns Chicago. But will he play this week? Both teams enter this game with uncertainty at quarterback. In Week 12, the Bears went from Justin Fields to Trevor Siemian, to Nathan Peterman, and back to Siemian. None of it mattered against the juggernaut that is Mike White and the Jets. Neither team here will be in the playoffs. So this one is for pride. We like the Bears as the home dog if Fields is healthy enough to start.
Best Bet: Bears +2.5 (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook ➜
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. (FOX)
The Lions and Jaguars are easily the most-promising 4-7 teams in the NFL. The Lions have won three of four. The Jaguars unveiled their modified mascot Sunday and bewildered the Ravens as they won outright as 4-point home underdogs.
Trevor Lawrence played perhaps his best game as a pro in Week 12 given the clutch nature of Jacksonville’s win. He may finally be showing the game he brought with the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. This total seems a bit high, especially since four of the past five games involving Jacksonville have gone under the total.
Best Bet: Under 52 Points (-110) with DraftKings Sportsbook ➜
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Deshaun Watson will start for the Browns this week after serving his 12-week suspension. The Browns ended the Jacoby Brissett Era with a thrilling come-from-behind 23-17 OT win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. It was the first time a Brady team ever lost in which it led by seven or more points in the final minute. That ended a 218-0 run.
The Texans are a near lock for the No. 1 overall pick at 1-9-1. They don’t need any more wins to screw it up. Watson will likely have the support of whatever crowd does show up in person. But the Browns could be due for a letdown after their big win at home Sunday. The Texans are 4-6-1 ATS despite their overall record.
Beware of Kyle Allen. Depending on when and where you bet last week, the Texans rallied for a cover at +15.5 points over Miami. The Dolphins led that game 30-0 before the 30-15 final.
Best Bet: Texans +7 (-110) with BetMGM Sportsbook ➜
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. (CBS)
For a second consecutive week, the Vikings play host to an AFC East opponent. Minnesota beat New England on Thanksgiving night with some help from the refs. The Jets and Mike White will present even a tougher challenge. The Jets have a stout defense and seem to overperform on offense behind White’s cool-hand leadership. The Vikings are 9-2 overall but just 5-5-1 ATS. The Jets are 7-4 overall and ATS.
Best Bet: Jets +3 (-110) with BetMGM Sportsbook ➜
Washington Commanders at New York Giants, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Washington has won six of seven outright but hasn’t played an NFC East opponent since Week 4. The Schedule Gods have these two teams playing in back-to-back weeks. A sweep by either would all-but assure a playoff spot. The Giants are coming off the extra break having not played since Thanksgiving.
Big Blue needs the extra time to figure out how to regroup after a tough loss but thrilling back-door cover at Dallas. The Giants are tied with Tennessee at 8-3 for the best record in the NFL against the line. Washington is close behind at 7-4-1. It has covered in its past six wins, while pushing at +3 in a 20-17 loss to the Vikings. Washington has seen eight of its past 10 games go under the total.
Best Bet: Under 40.5 Points (-105) with BetMGM Sportsbook ➜
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. (FOX)
This game is the first of two potential Super Bowl 57 betting previews on the Week 13 schedule. The Eagles are 10-1 and boast the best overall record in the NFL. The Titans are 7-4 but hold a substantial lead in the AFC South.
The Eagles boast a wide-open, high-powered offense led by Jalen Hurts. The Titans try to grind both their opponents and the clock. The Eagles have the edge in this one both because of home field and the potential deep-strike threat in their offense. The play on defense is to stack up against Derrick Henry and let Ryan Tannehill try and beat you.
This line is overinflated. The Titans have covered in eight of nine games, and have won four straight outright as an underdog against NFC teams.
Best Bet: Titans +6 (-110) with FanDuel Sportsbook ➜
Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The Rams are in the midst and misery of an all-time Super Bowl hangover. The champs are 3-8 overall and own last place in the NFC West. Bettors on betting apps backing the Rams have fared even worse. The Rams hold the worst record in the NFL against the spread at 2-7-2. They failed to cover as 16-point underdogs at Kansas City, forcing a push in 26-10 loss. That game opened with the Rams +14, so many made a profit on LA’s loss.
The Rams have also failed to cover as an underdog in five straight tries. The Seahawks lost two in a row around their bye, including a stunner at home in overtime to the Las Vegas Raiders. This one has the potential to be a get-right game for the Seahawks, especially with a friendly “road” crowd at SoFi.
Best Bet: Seahawks -4.5 (-110) with DraftKings ➜
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The second potential Super Bowl 57 preview has the first-place Miami Dolphins making one of the longest road trips in the NFL to visit the first-place San Francisco 49ers. The 8-3/6-5 Dolphins hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo in the AFC East. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has not lost a game this season in which he finished.
But the 49ers present a real challenge to Miami on both sides of the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo is 12-5 in December and 8-3 in his career against the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have failed to cover in five of six road games.
Best Bet: 49ers -3.5 (-105) with DraftKings ➜
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
This game won’t be a Super Bowl 57 preview, but it could well offer a glimpse at a potential AFC Championship Game this season. The Chiefs have won seven of eight, but have covered the line just twice in that span. The Bengals have won five of six outright, and covered in five of those games, as well.
Oddsmakers have yet to fully embrace Cincinnati despite its status as defending conference champion. The Chiefs have done well against the number in December, covering in five of their past six December games. This even-money line is priced in their favor.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (+100) with Caesars Sportsbook ➜
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
The Pretender Bowl features a pair of teams coming off thrilling wins in Week 12. The Chargers trailed 10-0 at Arizona before taking a 25-24 win on a TD and 2-point conversion in the game’s final minute. The Raiders sacked Seattle with their second-straight OT victory. This one came via an 86-yard TD run by Josh Jacobs.
Neither defense here is noteworthy. Josh McDaniels continues to aimlessly wander through his first season as Raiders head coach. His dumb luck continues in Las Vegas this week.
Best Bet: Raiders ML (+115) with Caesars Sportsbook ➜
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
All four NFC East teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended prior to Week 13. Of course, it won’t. So the Cowboys need a win here to gain ground on the loser of the Commanders-Giants game and keep pace with the winner. The Cowboys likely won’t catch Philly but appear locked in as the top wild-card team in the NFL, if current trends hold.
The Colts will be coming off a Monday night game at home and could be in store for a letdown. Dallas whiffed on the 10-point cover in a 28-20 Thanksgiving win over the Giants. These teams are a combined 15-6-1 going under the total, mirroring a trend league-wide. We’ll ride with that trend here.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 Points (-110) with Caesars Sportsbook ➜
Monday, December 5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
The Bucs and Saints combined to score 17 points in Week 12. Both teams continued season-long struggles on offense. The Bucs defense is primarily responsible for the team’s five wins. It continues to keep Tampa Bay in nearly every game. The Bucs have lost four games by less than one score, including a pair by just two points.
Tom Brady has been unable to move the ball on first down and stay on the field. Even worse for Brady backers, the Bucs have failed to cover in eight of their past nine games. A year ago on December 19, Dennis Allen (filling in for Sean Payton due to COVID) coached the Saints to a 9-0 win at Raymond James. Will history repeat itself this year?
Best Bet: Saints +4 with FanDuel Sportsbook ➜