After covering in its first six games, Atlanta has failed to cover in three straight, though the last two were missed by a combined 1.5 points. Atlanta has covered in their last four trips to Carolina, and it has the group to pull it off again. 

The Falcons will run the ball until they’re stopped. Carolina ranks 28th vs. the run and allowed 167 to them just two weeks ago (and 241 yards to the Bengals on Sunday). On the flip side, P.J. Walker was a nine-yard disaster vs. the Bengals but coach Steve Wilks said he’ll get the nod again here. 

Walker completed barely 50% of his passes but for 317 yards against the Falcons two weeks ago. That massive yardage total was 140 yards above any other game and we don’t expect it again here. Atlanta has the postseason motivation and the horses. Back the Falcons to cover at -3 as your secondary TNF pick. 

The Under has dominated this series, hitting in 13 of the last 19 matchups. The Falcons also have a 6-0 run on Unders on Thursday nights. These teams combine to allow over 50 points per game and even score 44 ppg, which makes this 43.5 mark sound a bit too low. 

Thursday has produced a lot of low-scoring snoozers and we expect one here. Atlanta has the matchups to run the ball a lot and drain the clock. Carolina will surely have the same goal of controlling the trenches and rushing to set up the pass. It makes for a quick, low-scoring game. Take the Under at betting apps as the top bet of the evening. 

Atlanta is -150 on the moneyline while Carolina is +130 at home. This line isn’t extraordinary for the favorite, so we prefer that side. Is it a better bet than the point spread? 

We lean toward no. This game was decided by three points just two weeks ago and the Falcons game on Sunday was decided by a last-second FG. The Falcons have the matchups to pull this one out, but we’ll take the spread of three points at -110 over a straight-up wager at -150. 

Tommy Tremble, Over 13.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Tight ends aren’t exactly a flourishing part of the Panthers' offense; no position is, really. But he does have four targets and two receptions in each of the last two games, for 17 and 11 yards – an uptick from the rest of the season. The key is Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons have allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yards to TEs this season. 

D.J. Moore, Over 58.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Falcons aren’t good at covering tight ends and they’re even worse at covering receivers. No team has allowed more yards to WRs, and a whopping 211.7 ypg. Moore averages only 49.9 yards per game but that’s nearly 200 more than anyone else and he has 44 more targets than any other wideout. Walker had his one statistically huge game vs. Atlanta and can have another one with Moore as the top beneficiary.