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Cleveland Browns At Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & MNF Betting Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Cleveland Browns At Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & MNF Betting Predictions

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The Pittsburgh Steelers try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they host Baker Mayfield and the already-eliminated Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football in what is likely Ben Roethlisberger's final home game.

The Steelers (7-7-1) need two wins to end the regular season, plus a little help to to sneak into the postseason, while the Browns were eliminated Sunday thanks to wins by the Bengals and Chargers. As a result, the line movement on betting sites has been dramatic with the Steelers now 2.5-point favorites after opening as small favorites and moving to 3.5-point dogs early in the week.

The total is at just 42 points in the latest Browns vs. Steelers odds. When it comes to NFL spreads in this AFC North clash, the line has moved dramatically toward Pittsburgh because the Browns have been eliminated. Pittsburgh needs to win out and have the Jaguars upset the Colts in Week 18 (plus avoid a tie between the Chargers and Raiders) in order to reach the postseason.

Take a look at Browns vs Steelers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.


Browns vs. Steelers Key Matchups

Nick Chubb vs. Steelers Run Defense: Pittsburgh has allowed more ground yards than any other team and ranks last in yards allowed per carry (4.8). Chubb’s 5.5 yards per carry is tied with Jonathan Taylor for the most of any back averaging at least 12 carries.

Browns TEs vs. Steelers LBs: Austin Hooper and David Njoku rank second and third in receptions for the Browns, third and fourth in yards and are tied for first in TDs. Pittsburgh has allowed just two TDs to tight ends all year.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cleveland: The QB is an amazing 25-2-1 all-time vs. the Browns, with 42 TDs and 22 INTs.


RELATED: NFL Week 17 Odds & Betting Lines For All 16 Games


5 Key Browns vs. Steelers Stats

18: Touchdowns to WRs allowed by the Steelers. Only the Cardinals and Bears have allowed more.

32.5: Combined sacks by Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt (17.5) and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (15.0), ranking first and third in the NFL, respectively.

36.5: Percentage of Steelers plays that are a run, third-lowest behind only the Jets and Buccaneers. That number dips to 33.9% in home games. Cleveland ranks No. 2 vs. the pass.

50.9: Percentage of Steelers opponent red-zone trips that ended with a TD. That’s the fifth-best mark in the NFL. Conversely, 68.1% of Browns opponent red zone trips end in TDs, the fifth-worst mark.

69: Combined sacks for Ben Roethlisberger (35) and Baker Mayfield (34), each ranking in the top eight of most-sacked QBs.

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Browns vs. Steelers Weather Forecast

An unseasonably warm stretch in Pittsburgh unfortunately ends on Monday. Temperatures that day will hover in the low 30s during the day, dipping into the 20s for kickoff. At least sky will be clear and winds will be low at Heinz Field, decent enough for the walk across the Clemente Bridge.


Browns vs. Steelers Player Props

Ben Roethlisberger, Over 1.5 TDs

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

If this is Big Ben’s final home game, and many indications are it will be, he’s going out guns a blazin’. Cleveland’s 27 pass TDs allowed is the sixth-most.

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Ben Roethlisberger, Over 0.5 INTs

Odds: +100 at DraftKings

Roethlisberger without abandon means big numbers, both positive and negative. He’s tossed four picks in the last five games. Cleveland forced 10 turnovers in four games before last week’s game at Green Bay.

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Nick Chubb, Over 100 Yards + TD

Odds: +250 at FOX Bet

The Browns have realized that more Chubb = more chance at victory. The last two weeks he’s gained 217 yards and two TDs on 40 carries. Expect more of that against the Steelers’ 31st-ranked run defense. We’ll take these big odds on RB1.


RELATED: NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions For Every Game


Browns vs. Steelers Moneyline

The Steelers are -145 favorites on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $145 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, underdog Cleveland is +130 (a $100 bet means $130 in profit). At the start of the week, the Steelers were the favorites at most sportsbooks before the script flipped, then flipped back to Pittsburgh.

While both teams lost in Week 16, the teams couldn’t have looked much different. The Browns outplayed the NFL-leading Packers at Lambeau Field at every position but QB, undone by four Baker Mayfield INTs. The Steelers were dismantled in every facet at Kansas City.

Considering the Browns want to run the ball as often as possible, and the Steelers own the NFL’s worst run defense, and Cleveland’s pass D has the personnel to limit Pittsburgh’s key offensive weapons, Cleveland was favored earlier in the week for a reason. However, the narrative has changed greatly and the Steelers have everything to play for, while Cleveland does not. This Steelers moneyline price is worth playing at BetMGM, where new users can sign up and grab a risk-free first bet worth up to $1,000 to use on the NFL this weekend with this BetMGM bonus code.

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Browns vs. Steelers Point Spread

The Steelers are -2.5 on betting apps, which is a dramatic swing from when they were 3.5-point dogs earlier in the week.

Pittsburgh actually beat Cleveland 15-10, and Ben Roethlisberger has owned the Browns his entire career. But the trajectory of each team gives pause to backing the host Steelers, as do the gameplans for each side. In addition, Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. Those looking for Monday night NFL betting action should lay the points with the Steelers if for no other reason than the motivation factor, plus the fact it's likely being Big Ben's final home game. The crowd should be going insane. Laying under a field goal makes sense.

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Browns vs. Steelers Totals

The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 42, the third-lowest total of the week. The Under is the trend for both sides, hitting on five of the last six Browns games and four of the last five Steelers games at home. These teams totaled just 25 points the last time they faced.

Expect lots of running from the Browns, who gashed the Packers for 219 yards on the ground last week. As for the Steelers, short passes and rushing is in the cards on that side. They’re 6-2-1 when they gain a modest 75 rush yards and 1-5 when they don’t. More runs means fewer clock stoppages and fewer plays.

The Under is the best side if you’re looking to add a Monday night total to your NFL picks lineup for Week 17.

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.