By Adam Thompson | | 6 mins
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Picks & SNF Betting Predictions
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have won four in a row to claim first place in the competitive AFC West. They host Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos in a Sunday Night Football showdown. The Chiefs (7-4) have climbed back into the race with a top-five offense and improved defense, while the Broncos (6-5) have won three of four and are just one game back. A win would be critical for both sides.
Take a look at Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Key Matchups
Travis Kelce vs. Broncos LBs: Kelce’s 67 receptions and 821 yards lead all tight ends by a sizeable margin. Denver allows 40.8 ypg to tight ends, sixth-fewest.
Teddy Bridgewater vs. DB Hands: The Broncos are 6-2 this season when the Broncos QB doesn’t turn the ball over, and 0-3 when he does. Kansas City ranks 12th in interceptions and takeaways per game.
Noah Fant vs. Chiefs LBs: Kansas City allows the fifth-most yards to TEs. Ironically, the Broncos are 5-1 when Fant has four or fewer receptions and 1-4 when he gets five or more.
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5 Key Broncos vs. Chiefs Stats
0: Career losses by Mahomes against the Broncos. He is 7-0 all-time vs. Denver, with the last four games won by an average of 19.3 ppg.
11.1: Yards per reception for Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. He’s averaged no less than 14.7 per catch in each season since his rookie year, but currently ranks 30th among pass-catchers in plays over 20 yards.
17.8: The points per game allowed by the Broncos this season, third-best in the NFL. The last time Denver allowed 18.5 ppg or less over a season, it won the Super Bowl.
80: Win percentage of the Broncos when Jerry Jeudy plays. He doesn’t have a TD yet this season but Denver is 4-1 when he’s out there, with 4-6 receptions in all but one outing.
280: Yards per game in two career starts vs. the Chiefs by Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater. That’s more than Mahomes has averaged against the Broncos (261).
Broncos vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast
Nothing out of the ordinary is expected Sunday night in Kansas City on the first weekend of December. Temperatures are unseasonably warm with a high of 58 degrees on Sunday, but cool down into the 30s for the night. No rain and light winds should keep conditions favorable enough for players and fans alike.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Moneyline
When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored Kansas City is a hefty -450 on the moneyline, while Denver is set at +350.
Each team is trending in the right direction, the Chiefs by their improved defense, the Broncos by their always-tough defense. On paper, the offenses aren’t the same, but production-wise it’s closer than one might expect. If we’re to choose a side on the moneyline, the matchups are too close, which makes Denver a big value play. But we can’t trust them to pull out a road upset win.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Point Spread
The Chiefs are favored by 10 points on a point-spread line that has pushed into Kansas City’s favor since opening at -9.5. The Chiefs are over-bet weekly by a public that loves to back Mahomes and the offense. They’re only 4-7 against the spread this season. When favored by seven or more, they’re 1-3. Only once were they a double-digit favorite, edging the Giants 20-17 at -10.5.
The Broncos have been an underdog of over 2.5 points just twice all season, and they won both instances, beating the Chargers 28-13 and the Cowboys 30-16 as 10-point dogs. Bridgewater is a stunning 24-5 against the spread all-time on the road. We’re taking Denver at these odds. You can get the Broncos +10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Totals
Top NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 47 points for Sunday Night Football – that number dropped 2.5 points since opening, thanks to the defensive trends for each side.
We know the Broncos have a solid defense, ranking in the top 10 vs. both the run and the pass. But the Chiefs have been just as good lately, if not better. They’ve held their last three opponents to 30 total points – those three opponents were the Packers, Raiders and Cowboys. There is no doubt the Under is the trend for both sides here. The Under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last five games and 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last six. Consider the Under as part of your NFL picks lineup for Week 13. You can get Under 47.5 (-114) at FanDuel.
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