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First NFL Coach Fired Odds: Staley Favored With Eberflus Close Behind

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 5 mins

First NFL Coach Fired Odds: Staley Favored With Eberflus Close Behind

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It's never too soon to start warming the "NFL Coaching Hot Seat." 

After Week 2 of the NFL betting season, our weekly look at the "First NFL Head Coach Fired" odds features a new name sitting in the throne atop our metaphorical stack of cordwood.

Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley has the shortest odds to get pink-slipped this season as team fell to 0-2 with an abysmal overtime loss Titans in Nashville. Chicago coach Matt Eberflus, who as been unable to morph Justin Fields into a legitimate starting QB, has moved into second.  

The Chargers are an exceptional disappointment given the talent on their roster and the preseason hype and optimism they brought to their side of SoFi. 

RELATED: Ranking All NFL Starting QBs Against The Spread

First NFL Coach To Be Fired Odds

Bookies.com Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson has offered his latest NFL odds and probabilities on which NFL coach will be the first one fired. Each coach is listed with team, odds and the probability of it happening based on those odds. 

Coach Team Odds Implied Probability
Brandon Staley Chargers +350 22.2%
Matt Eberflus Bears +400 20.0%
Todd Bowles Buccaneers +850 10.5%
Mike Vrabel Titans +900 10.0%
Mike Tomlin Steelers +1000 9.1%
Kevin Stefanski Browns +1000 9.1%
Josh McDaniels Raiders +1000 9.1%
Sean McVay Rams +1400 6.7%
Bill Belichick Patriots +1400 6.7%
Ron Rivera Commanders +1400 6.7%
The Field N/A +850 10.5%

This hypothetical betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. It has been created by Bookies.com.

Brandon Staley, Chargers, +350

Brandon Staley's team continues to underperform. The Chargers commit an endless streak of critical mistakes. Even without Austin Ekeler, the Chargers boast Justin Herbert at QB, and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wideout. The Chargers are the prototypical, underachieving .500 team. Except right now they are 0-2, with a huge, historical asterisk attached. The Chargers are the first team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-2 despite scoring at least 50 points and committing zero turnovers in their first two games. 

RELATED: NFL Week 2 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Matt Eberflus, Bears, +400

Matt Eberflus and his Bears began Year 2 of the Justin Fields Era getting curb-stomped by the Green Bay Packers 38-20 at home in the latest incarnation of the NFL's oldest rivalry. The drubbing continued Sunday at Tampa Bay. Not a good way to begin another make-or-break season for Eberflus or his team. If Fields doesn't fully mature this season, it will be his coach that pays the price. Not the quarterback. 

Todd Bowles, Buccaneers, +850

A fixture on this list, Todd Bowles was able to ride the last vestige of Tom Brady to the playoffs. While many Buccaneers fans probably want the team to tank for a top-tier QB in the NFL draft, Baker Mayfield and Bowles' defense have over performed thus far. Tampa Bay could well win the up-for-grabs NFC South, making it hard to move on from Bowles. He'll be gone with a playoff miss. 

Mike Vrabel, Titans, +900

Mike Vrabel is another long-time coach whose name has made frequent appearances on this list. The Titans lost a rock fight 16-15 to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1 but beat the Chargers in overtime in Week 2. But it was the Chargers. At home. Look for a similar sort of game plan from Vrabel all season. If Tennessee cannot win out in the AFC South, or snag a playoff berth, Vrabel will likely the first casualty in a major post-season purge. 

Josh McDaniels, Raiders, +1000

Josh McDaniels represents the best price on this list. Keep an eye out on the Tom Brady-Raiders ownership situation. If Brady is able to finalize his deal to own part of the Raiders, that might buy McDaniels, his former offensive coordinator, a reprieve. But the long-term future for McDaniels dims further each week. The Raiders were demolished Sunday in Buffalo.  

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Mike Tomlin, Steelers, +1000

The Steelers change coaches about as often as most states change capitals. Since 1969, the team has only had three of them. Chuck Noll. Bill Cowher. And Mike Tomlin. Cowher coached from 1992-2006, or 15 seasons. This is Tomlin's 17th season in the Steel City as head coach. So he's already's surpassed that milestone. The Steelers have gone all-in on Kenny Pickett at QB. But Pittsburgh's defense outscored its offense in Monday's 26-22 win over Cleveland. 

Kevin Stefanski, Browns, +1000

Kevin Stefanski was on our list throughout 2022. That he kept his job in the offseason was a surprise. But now we understand why. Deshaun Watson clearly isn't ready and has struggled woefully in first two starts this season. The Browns lost Nick Chubb for the season due to a gruesome knee injury Monday. Keep an eye who they get to replace him on their roster. That will be tell as how much faith the front office has in Stefanski's future with the team. 

Bookies Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson also contributed to this story.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.