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Next NFL Coach Fired Odds: Will Bill Belichick Follow Josh McDaniels?

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 7 mins

Next NFL Coach Fired Odds: Will Bill Belichick Follow Josh McDaniels?

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It's never too soon to start warming the "NFL Coaching Hot Seat." 

Josh McDaniels was fired by the Las Vegas Raiders ahead of Week 9 this NFL betting season. The Raiders let McDaniels go in the middle of his second season with the team. He coached just 25 games in Sin City and still has four-plus years remaining on his deal. 

Who's next? 

His former boss, perhaps?

Embattled Patriots coach Bill Belichick had moved to the top spot in our "Next Coach Fired Odds" market last week after the Patriots' humiliating 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany. The Patriots have completely collapsed this season. They are coming off the bye and face the New York Giants in Week 12. The loser will have the inside track on the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Chargers Coach Brandon Staley has edged to the top of our crowded market. 

Next NFL Coach To Be Fired Odds

Bookies.com Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson has offered his latest NFL odds and probabilities on which NFL coach will be the first one fired. Each coach is listed with team, odds, and the probability of it happening based on those odds. 

Coach Team Odds Implied Probability
Brandon Staley Chargers +250 28.6%
Ron Rivera Commanders +400 20.0%
Matt Eberflus Bears +450 18.2%
Mike Vrabel Titans +750 11.8%
Bill Belichick Patriots +800 11.1%
Todd BowlesBuccaneers +950 9.5%
Brian DabollGiants +1200 7.7%
Frank ReichPanthers +1200 7.7%
The Field N/A +1800 5.3%

This hypothetical betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. It has been created by Bookies.com.

Brandon Staley, Chargers, +250

Brandon Staley's Chargers again reminded us they are who we think they are in Week 11. After back-to-back wins, the Bolts have responded with two straight losses. Justin Herbert's development has stalled this season and he was flat-out terrible against the Packers. He was forced to run 8 times for 73 yards. That formula is not going to work. 

The Chargers are the prototypical, underachieving team. They sit at 4-6. Surprise. Surprise. 

Herbert's success down the stretch this season will determine Staley's fate as head coach. Although it may already be decided. 

Ron Rivera, Commanders, +400

The Commanders dumped both Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. They were both former first-round picks. The Commanders were unable to follow up on their win at New England and stalled in Seattle and then collapsed down the stretch against the Giants. Ron Rivera has yet to figure it out in Washington. His offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has done well in getting Sam Howell to progress as QB. But a playoff miss will be it for Riverboat Ron in the nation's capital. 

RELATED: Ranking All NFL Starting QBs Against The Spread

Matt Eberflus, Bears, +450

Justin Fields has returned from injury and has gotten back his legs, but the Bears cannot compete unless Fields can develop his passing game. Matt Eberflus and the Bears are 3-8 and have lost 16 of their past 20 games. 

It remains difficult to envision a scenario where Eberflus is coaching this team next season, especially given that the Bears could well own the top 2 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's more probable than not that Chicago will want to rebuild with another, more offensive-minded coach, given the potential haul in the draft. 

Mike Vrabel, Titans, +750

Mike Vrabel is another long-time coach whose name has made frequent appearances on this list. He pulled the plug on Ryan Tannehill. Rookie QB Will Levis came off the bench and threw 4 TD passes in his NFL debut. The Titans (3-7) were unable to capitalize on any momentum they had going with Levis and have lost back-to-back lopsided games to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

Vrabel will likely be among the first casualty in a major post-season purge on Black Monday if/when the Titans miss the playoffs. 

Bill Belichick, Patriots, +800

Bill Belichick could arguably be called the best NFL of the post-merger era, if not the 21st Century. But none of his accolades, or the eight rings noted on his fishing boat, seem to matter these days. 

The Patriots are now 2-8. They are the worst team in the AFC both straight up and against the spread. 

Right now, the Patriots would draft third if the season were to end today. They come off the bye this week against the Giants. The loser of that game could have a tight grip on the No. 3 overall pick by losing out. 

This is a breathtaking collapse from what was once the model franchise in the NFL. Speculation in New England has now centered on when, not if, Belichick will be leaving the Patriots.  

RELATED: Super Bowl 58 Odds

Todd Bowles, Buccaneers, +950

Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers had lost five of six. Bowles and the Bucs were overwhelmed by San Francisco in Week 11. But they did snag a neat backdoor cover on the 13.5-point line. No doubt pleasing all the new bettors in Florida now that sports betting is back in the Sunshine State via the Hard Rock Bet app. 

The Bucs have been progressively worse. They didn't make any deals at the trade deadline. The Bucs began the season with 13 rookies on their roster. The rebuild will continue next season with the departure of big-name veterans like Mike Evans. Bowles likely won't be around in 2024, either.

RELATED: NFL Week 11 Picks

Frank Reich, Panthers, 1200

The Panthers traded their immediate future to move up and take Bryce Young with the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Frank Reich has a three-decade record as a QB's coach. 

The marriage has not worked out as Carolina has hoped. Young remains pretty much the same QB as he was in Week 1. Houston QB C.J. Stroud is going run away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Fellow rookie QBs Will Levis and Anthony Richardson (before he got hurt) have shown more promise this season. Don't be surprised if you hear Reich's name on "Black Monday." 

Brian Daboll, Giants, +1200

Brian Daboll and the Giants overachieved in his first year as a head coach. Danny Dimes led a rag-tag bunch into the playoffs and a postseason win at Minnesota. Big Blue bounced back from its trouncing in Dallas with a come-back win and season sweep of the Commanders in Week 11.

The Giants have yet to find any semblance of offense, having used three different starting QBs this season. Jones is out until 2024. Tommy DeVito is the man until further notice/injury. 

The Mara family is patient. Daboll may get a pass given the injuries he's faced at QB. But with a long-shot potential return of Belichick to Big Blue and the Big Apple in the offing, Daboll might want to update his resume. 

Bookies Senior Handicapper Adam Thompson also contributed to this story. 

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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.