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First NFL Team Eliminated Odds: 2024 Playoff Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 

First NFL Team Eliminated Odds: 2024 Playoff Predictions

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The 2024 NFL season has been one of upheaval, where no team looks unbeatable and all 32 of them have at least one victory through five weeks. 

But only 14 teams will advance to the NFL Playoffs, which means at some point prior to the Wild Card Round on Jan. 5, 18 teams will get the notification that their season won’t move on into 2025.  It starts with one. Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his NFL odds as to which team is the first eliminated from postseason consideration for 2024. 

Team Odds Implied Probability
Carolina Panthers (1-4) +300 25.0%
New England Patriots (1-4) +350 22.2%
Cleveland Browns (1-4) +650 13.3%
Tennessee Titans (1-3) +750 11.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) +850 10.5%
Las Vegas Raiders (2-3) +1000 9.1%
Los Angeles Rams (1-4) +1000 9.1%
New York Giants (2-3) +1200 7.7%
Cincinnati Bengals (1-4) +1500 6.3%
The Field +2000 4.8%

This hypothetical betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps. It has been created by Bookies.com. 

Teams Likely To Miss The 2024 NFL Playoffs

Not only are the Carolina Panthers (1-4) not playing particularly well, they have the second-toughest strength of schedule remaining in the NFL. Opponents have a .596 win percentage so far; only the Chicago Bears have it tougher from here on out. Side note: The Bears (3-2) are part of The Field because of their remaining slate of games. 

The New England Patriots (1-4) were expected to struggle, but gave hope to fans after shocking the Bengals in Week 1. Since then, though, four straight defeats, though two of them were by five points or less. A QB change is expected soon, with rookie Drake Maye expected to make his pro debut as early as Week 6 vs. the Texans. 

The Cleveland Browns (1-4) were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders – if QB Deshaun Watson could find his form. Five weeks in, and Watson owns the worst QBR rating in the league. It may not be long before veteran Jameis Winston gets a crack at leading the offense. 

The Tennessee Titans (1-3) hammered the Tua-less Dolphins 31-12 before their bye week. The Titans do have the second-toughest schedule of anyone on these odds. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) finally got their first win in Week 5, a nailbiter vs. a Colts team without its QB or RB. They have been competitive in three of their four losses, offering hope that Trevor Lawrence and Co. can bounce back. 

The Los Angeles Rams (1-4) have been mired in injuries to key players, especially on the offensive end, and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3) could be making a change at QB, even as star WR Davante Adams could be moved. 

The New York Giants (2-3) were expected to be one of the bottom teams in the NFL, but they’ve won two of three on the road and lost their previous two by a combined eight points. The Cincinnati Bengals (1-4) aren’t supposed to be on the list, but four losses all by six points or less have Joe Burrow’s team in a hole. The Giants host the Bengals in Week 6. 

The Field is highlighted by the Miami Dolphins (2-3) and New York Jets (2-3), considered AFC contenders in the preseason. Miami’s issues have largely fallen on the injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa, while the Jets simply haven’t performed, especially on offense, ranking dead-last in the NFL in scoring and rushing. Neither should be in the running for this dubious honor, but here we are. 

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.